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[2019] 背风群岛以东二级飓风“杰瑞”(10L.Jerry) - NHC:90KT

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发表于 2019-9-16 01:57 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2019-10-9 18:40 编辑

AL, 97, 2019091518,   , BEST,   0,  87N,  405W,  25, 1009, LO,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  120,  40,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 022, SPAWNINVEST, al752019 to al972019,

20190915.1800.goes-16.ir.97L.INVEST.25kts.1009mb.8.7N.40.5W.100pc.jpg
two_atl_2d1.png two_atl_5d1.png

A small low pressure system is producing an elongated area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical
Atlantic. Slow development is anticipated during the next day or
two, but environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development by the middle of the week, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system
moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

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热带风暴

一条通往星星的崎岖道路

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发表于 2019-9-16 09:08 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:30%/80%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Humberto, located a couple of hundred miles east-northeast of
Cape Canaveral, Florida.

1. A small low pressure system is producing an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the east-central tropical
Atlantic.  Slow development is possible during the next day or
two, but environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development by the middle of the week, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system
moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
two_atl_2d0.png two_atl_2d1.png two_atl_5d1.png
Forecaster Pasch
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ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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14732
发表于 2019-9-16 19:37 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:60%/90%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-16 19:50 编辑

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association
with a small low pressure system located over the central tropical
Atlantic.  Satellite data also indicate that the low has become
better defined, and environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the next
couple of days while the system moves slowly northwestward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d1.png
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ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

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发表于 2019-9-17 09:28 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-17 11:42 编辑

WTNT21 KNGU 170100
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.2N 42.1W TO 12.2N 46.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 42.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
1200 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS SHOWN GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENTS IN ITS STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS COULD RESULT IN
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WESTWARD AT 5-10 KT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 180100Z.//
1250404D-5390-4C5C-9FEF-765E492EA8B1.gif
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发表于 2019-9-17 16:56 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:70%/90%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located nearly 600 miles west of Bermuda.

1. A small low pressure system located a little more than 1000 miles
east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  This system has changed little in
organization since yesterday, but conditions are still expected to
be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the
next day or so while the system moves slowly northwestward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


2. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure over
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has become a little more
concentrated during the past several hours. Nearby observations
indicate that although pressures are falling in the area, there are
no signs of a surface circulation at this time.  Some slight
development is possible before the system moves inland along the
northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday night.  Regardless of development,
this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall and
possible flash flooding along portions of the central and upper
Texas coastal areas later this week.  For additional information,
see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the
Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Avila
two_atl_2d0.png
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d0.png
two_atl_5d1.png
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强热带风暴

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发表于 2019-9-17 19:42 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-17 19:53 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located more than 500 miles west of Bermuda.

1. A small low pressure system is located about 1000 miles east of the
Lesser Antilles. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has
increased and become a little better organized this morning, and
conditions are expected to be conducive for the formation of a
tropical depression during the next day or so while the system moves
slowly northwestward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_atl_2d0.png two_atl_2d1.png two_atl_5d1.png
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ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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14732
发表于 2019-9-17 22:01 | 显示全部楼层
AL, 10, 2019091712,   , BEST,   0, 128N,  446W,  30, 1007, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  150,  30,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,        TEN, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 022, TRANSITIONED, alB72019 to al102019,
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

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发表于 2019-9-17 22:17 | 显示全部楼层
Special Message from NHC        Issued 17 Sep 2019 14:11 UTC   
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Ten located well east of the Lesser Antilles at 11 AM EDT.
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发表于 2019-9-17 22:49 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-17 23:13 编辑

WTNT45 KNHC 171447
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

Deep convection associated with the area of low pressure over the
central Atlantic has become more persistent and better organized
this morning.  Data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB are 2.0 on the
Dvorak scale, therefore advisories are being initiated on a tropical
depression.  The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in line with the
satellite estimates.  The depression is forecast to move over
gradually increasing sea surface temperatures within a favorable
upper-level environment.  The only negative factor for
intensification appears to be some nearby dry air, but with low
shear conditions expected, so steady strengthening is forecast
during the next several days.  The NHC forecast calls for the
depression to become a tropical storm later today, and attain
hurricane status within 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in
good agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM statistical models.

Since the depression is still in the development phase, the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 kt.  A strong deep-layer
ridge to the north of the cyclone should steer the depression
generally west-northwestward at a faster forward speed during the
next few days.  The track guidance is in relatively good agreement
through 72 hours, and brings the cyclone near the northern Leeward
Islands in about 3 days.  By late in the period, the cyclone is
expected to reach the western periphery of the ridge, and there is
increasing spread among the guidance.  The global model ensemble
means are along the right side of the envelope while the HWRF and
UKMET are along the left side.  The NHC track lies close the
consensus aids, which is also in good agreement with the latest
ECMWF.

Interests in the northern Leeward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 12.9N  44.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  18/0000Z 13.8N  46.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  18/1200Z 14.7N  47.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  19/0000Z 15.5N  50.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  19/1200Z 16.3N  52.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  20/1200Z 18.2N  59.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  21/1200Z 20.2N  64.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 22.5N  69.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
144756_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
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ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

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14732
发表于 2019-9-18 05:40 | 显示全部楼层
WTNT45 KNHC 172034
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019

The organization of the depression has changed little today.  Bands
of deep convection are located over the southern and southwestern
portions of the circulation, but is limited over the remainder of
the cyclone. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB
were unchanged from this morning, so the initial intensity is held
at 30 kt. There has been no change to the intensity forecast
reasoning or the forecast itself. The depression is forecast to
move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures and within a
generally low vertical wind shear environment.  These factors favor
strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues to call for the
depression to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane
before it approaches the northern Leeward Islands.

The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. The cyclone should move
west-northwestward at an increasingly faster forward speed to the
south of a strong deep-layer ridge. The track guidance is tightly
clustered, except for the latest HWRF run which is much farther
south at days 3-5. The latest consensus aids were very close to the
previous NHC track, and little overall change to the previous
official foreast was needed.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when
its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and
Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any
direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this
system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 13.4N  45.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  18/0600Z 14.1N  46.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  18/1800Z 15.0N  48.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  19/0600Z 15.9N  51.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  19/1800Z 16.9N  54.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  20/1800Z 18.9N  60.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  21/1800Z 20.9N  66.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 23.5N  70.5W   80 KT  90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
754B319D-8DCE-4C45-8AC6-850E1C150697.png
981D7004-951E-49B6-AA2E-C2F75BBDFBFF.gif
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