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[2019] 墨西哥西南热带风暴“马里奥”(14E.Mario)

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发表于 2019-9-16 14:03 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-9-18 05:34 编辑

91E INVEST 190916 0000 11.0N 107.0W EPAC 15 0

20190916.0540.goes-17.ir.91E.INVEST.15kts.1009mb.11N.107W.100pc.jpg
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1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased tonight in association with
an area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Conditions are conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression could form within
the next two to three days.  After mid week, this system is likely
to interact or merge with the disturbance to its east, and further
development after that time is not anticipated.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
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发表于 2019-9-16 19:43 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-16 20:06 编辑

1. Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in
association with an area of low pressure centered several hundred
miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Conditions are
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next two to three days.  After mid
week, this system is forecast to interact or merge with the
disturbance to its east, and further development could be limited.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

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发表于 2019-9-16 21:28 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:TCFA

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-17 17:54 编辑

WTPN21 PHNC 161600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7N 106.8W TO 15.6N 111.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 107.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.5N 107.5W, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO,
MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 161219Z
91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION TAKING ON SOME
MIDLEVEL ROTATION ABOVE AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).
THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH LOW-MODERATE (15-20KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, NEUTRAL UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE LLC,
AND WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON INVEST 91E TRACKING NORTHWEST AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP,
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ABSORBING INVEST 92E WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE
EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171600Z.//
NNNN
wp90kmz.png
EB62F893-569E-4D45-96BF-72AF4F63271E.gif
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发表于 2019-9-17 17:01 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:90%/90%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located over the southwestern part of the basin.

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain limited in association with a
well-defined area of low pressure located about 650 miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Any significant increase in
the thunderstorm activity would lead to the formation of a tropical
depression later today or tonight, while the disturbance moves
west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


2. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the large area of
low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico, is becoming better organized.  If this development
trend continues, then a tropical depression or tropical storm could
form later today or tonight.  This system will continue to move
west-northwest near or just offshore of the coast of Mexico for the
next few days.  Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

3. Disorganized cloudiness and showers near and just west of Central
America are associated with a tropical wave.  Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next several days while the wave
moves westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.  Locally heavy
rainfall is possible along the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Latto
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发表于 2019-9-17 19:45 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-17 19:58 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located over the southwestern part of the basin.

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a
well-defined area of low pressure located about 600 miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, and is close to becoming a
tropical depression.  Advisories on this system could be initiated
later this morning or this afternoon while the low moves
west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
two_pac_2d0.png two_pac_2d1.png two_pac_5d1.png
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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发表于 2019-9-17 21:50 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-17 22:03 编辑

14E.FOURTEEN.30kts.1008mb.11.5N.108W.

EP, 14, 2019091712,   , BEST,   0, 115N, 1080W,  30, 1008, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  120,  20,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,   FOURTEEN, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 032, TRANSITIONED, epD12019 to ep142019,

20190917.1330.goes-15.ir.14E.FOURTEEN.30kts.1008mb.11.5N.108W.100pc.jpg
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发表于 2019-9-17 22:52 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-9-18 00:08 编辑

WTPZ44 KNHC 171448
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
900 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Deep convection has intensified over the small area of low pressure
that NHC has been monitoring for several days.  Both SAB and TAFB
estimates indicate that there is now enough organized thunderstorm
activity to initiate advisories on a tropical depression, and the
initial wind speed of 30 kt matches the overnight scatterometer
data and the subjective Dvorak estimates.

The initial motion is an uncertain 335/8 kt, with steering provided
by a distant low-level ridge to the east.  The cyclone is forecast
to gradually turn toward the northwest and west-northwest during the
next several days as it runs into the southwestern side of a mid-
latitude ridge centered over northwestern Mexico. The biggest
complication is Tropical Storm Lorena to the northeast, which some
of the model guidance, such as the 6Z GFS, shows a binary
interaction with at longer term, which could induce a more northward
motion. While I can't rule that out, the forecast will stay closer
to the models that show less interaction, such as the more westward
HWRF and ECMWF solutions, and the NHC forecast is close to a blend
of those models.

While almost all of the guidance indicates strengthening of this
depression into a hurricane in a few days, this forecast is
problematic because of the proximity to Lorena.  Convective outflow
from Lorena could induce more easterly shear than is currently
forecast if the tracks get closer together.  For now, since the
cyclones are forecast to remain a fair distance from one another,
this wind speed prediction assumes that the low-shear environment in
most of the models materializes, and the forecast follows the
corrected-consensus intensity guidance HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 11.9N 108.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  18/0000Z 12.9N 108.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  18/1200Z 14.5N 110.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  19/0000Z 15.7N 111.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  19/1200Z 16.5N 113.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  20/1200Z 17.1N 114.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  21/1200Z 17.3N 115.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 17.5N 117.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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一条通往星星的崎岖道路

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发表于 2019-9-18 09:30 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-9-18 09:41 编辑

WTPZ44 KNHC 172038
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Thunderstorm activity continues to grow over the center of the
cyclone, with a banding feature trying to form in the western
semicircle.  While the subjective estimates are unchanged from
earlier, the objective estimates are rising, which matches the
increased convective organization trend on satellites.  Thus the
initial wind speed is bumped up to 35 kt on this advisory.

Mario is moving northwestward, with that general motion anticipated
for the next two days due primarily to a mid-latitude ridge centered
over northwestern Mexico.  A slow west-northwest track is forecast
at long-range due to the orientation of the weakening ridge. Global
models have come into much better agreement overall, and the new NHC
track forecast is shifted to the west during the next few days since
the models suggest little-to-no interaction with Tropical Storm
Lorena.

With the guidance showing less interaction with Lorena, it seems
probable that further strengthening will occur in a low-shear,
warm-water environment.  Interestingly, the guidance is actually
lower than this morning, although it is difficult to pinpoint any
reasons for the change. I've elected to let the morning forecast
ride for one more advisory to see if the guidance comes back
upward, and the latest wind speed prediction is at the upper end of
the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 12.3N 108.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  18/0600Z 13.3N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  18/1800Z 14.7N 111.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  19/0600Z 15.8N 112.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  19/1800Z 16.5N 113.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  20/1800Z 16.8N 114.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
96H  21/1800Z 17.0N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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ep1419.gif 14E_171800sair.jpg
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发表于 2019-9-18 11:50 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-18 12:09 编辑

WTPZ44 KNHC 180246
TCDEP4

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142019
900 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Mario's center was partially exposed after the release of the
previous advisory, but it is now covered by a new convective burst.
The convection itself remains somewhat lopsided, favoring the
southwestern quadrant due to strong upper-level easterly winds
emanating away from the larger Tropical Storm Lorena to the east.
Since subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range
from 30-40 kt, the initial intensity remains 35 kt on this advisory.

The initial motion remains northwestward, or 325/8 kt.  A mid-level
ridge over Mexico should keep the cyclone on its northwestward
trajectory for the next 2 days, but since the ridge retreats
eastward a bit, Mario's forward motion is expected to decrease
significantly during that time.  By day 3, Mario and Lorena may get
close enough to one another to cause Mario to almost stall.  After
day 3, Mario's track will mostly depend on Lorena's future, and
there is significant model spread on days 4 and 5.  The GFS has a
stronger Lorena moving up near the Baja California peninsula, which
pulls Mario farther toward the north and east.  The ECMWF, on the
other hand, dissipates Lorena near west-central Mexico, which
allows Mario continue on a northwestward heading.  For now, the
official forecast splits the difference and closely follows the
multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA model.

Easterly to northeasterly shear is likely to continue over Mario
during the next day or two, so only gradual strengthening is
expected during that time.  Vertical shear may decrease around the
time that Mario stalls, and at that point the system is forecast to
become a hurricane.  Some weakening is anticipated by the end of
the forecast period due to an increase in shear.  The updated NHC
intensity forecast is only slightly lower than the previous one
based on the latest guidance.  It should be noted that there is
greater-than-normal uncertainty in this forecast since it is not
known how much Mario and Lorena will interact in the coming days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 13.2N 109.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  18/1200Z 14.2N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  19/0000Z 15.5N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  19/1200Z 16.3N 113.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  20/0000Z 16.7N 113.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  21/0000Z 16.9N 113.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  22/0000Z 17.5N 114.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 19.4N 115.1W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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发表于 2019-9-18 12:08 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:聂高臻  签发:梁 健   2019 年  09 月  18 日  10 时
“基科”减弱为热带风暴
东北太平洋一级飓风“基科”(KIKO)已于今天(18日)凌晨(北京时,下同)减弱为热带风暴级,今天上午8点钟其中心位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西偏南方向约1730公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬16.8度、西经125.2度,中心附近最大风力有10级(25米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为986百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向偏西方向移动,强度变化不大。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日08时10分)

“温贝托”将向北偏东方向移动

“温贝托”(HUMBERTO)已于昨天夜间至今天早晨由一级飓风增强为三级飓风,今天(18日)上午8点钟其中心位于百慕大(BERMUDA)西偏南方向约660公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬31.2度、西经71.6度,中心附近最大风力有16级(52米/秒,相当于我国的超强台风级),中心最低气压为951百帕。

预计,“温贝托”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向东偏北方向移动,强度将维持或逐渐减弱。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日08时01分)

“伊梅尔达”在北大西洋生成

北大西洋热带风暴“伊梅尔达”(IMELDA)已于昨天(17日)晚上在美国得克萨斯州(TEXAS)东南部近海生成,随后在在上述地区沿海登陆,并于今天早晨减弱为热带低压。

预计,“伊梅尔达”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏北方向移动,强度继续减弱。

这是关于“伊梅尔达”的最后一期监测公报。

“洛雷娜”在东北太平洋洋面上生成

东北太平洋热带风暴“洛雷娜”(LORENA)已于昨天(17日)晚上在东北太平洋洋面上生成,今天(18日)上午8点钟其中心位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)东南方向约1250公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬14.8度、西经101.6度,中心附近最大风力有9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1002百帕。

预计,“洛雷娜”将以每小时10-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度维持或缓慢增强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日08时01分)

“马里奥”在东北太平洋洋面上生成

东北太平洋热带风暴“马里奥”(LORENA)已于今天(18日)凌晨在东北太平洋洋面上生成,今天上午8点钟其中心位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)偏南方向约1120公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬12.9度、西经108.9度,中心附近最大风力有8级(18米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1005百帕。

预计,“马里奥”将以每小时10-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度逐渐增强。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190918020002400_XML_4.gif
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日08时03分)
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