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[2019] 加利福尼亚湾一级飓风“洛雷娜”(15E.Lorena) - 西北行进入加利福尼亚湾 - NHC:75KT

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发表于 2019-9-16 19:11 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 327 于 2019-9-23 08:00 编辑

EP, 92, 2019091600,   , BEST,   0, 108N,  939W,  20,    0, DB,
92E INVEST 190916 0600 11.0N 95.0W EPAC 20 1009

20190916.1040.goes-16.ir.92E.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.12N.95W.100pc.jpg

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2. A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers centered a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is
associated with a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form around the middle of the week as the
system moves west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-16 19:48 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:60%/80%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-16 19:53 编辑

2. An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has become better defined overnight, and
the associated thunderstorm activity has also increased.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form around
the middle of the week as the system moves west-northwestward near,
or parallel to, the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-16 21:28 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:TCFA

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-17 13:27 编辑

WTPN22 PHNC 161600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161551Z SEP 19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC
161600)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4N 95.2W TO 16.2N 101.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 96.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.0N 96.0W, APPROXIMATELY 675 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 161302Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). BROAD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-
10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (30-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN A SCENARIO WHERE INVEST 92E TRACKS
NORTHWEST ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST, AND ONE WHERE IT IS ABSORBED INTO
INVEST 92E TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
171600Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 107.5W//
NNNN
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0A9678DA-29B8-4A51-9C7E-69A6CAB7F094.gif
A6CF934D-C6E3-4553-8B6C-AD7BDDB2B7FE.jpeg
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发表于 2019-9-17 17:03 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:90%/90%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located over the southwestern part of the basin.

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain limited in association with a
well-defined area of low pressure located about 650 miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Any significant increase in
the thunderstorm activity would lead to the formation of a tropical
depression later today or tonight, while the disturbance moves
west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the large area of
low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico, is becoming better organized.  If this development
trend continues, then a tropical depression or tropical storm could
form later today or tonight.  This system will continue to move
west-northwest near or just offshore of the coast of Mexico for the
next few days.  Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


3. Disorganized cloudiness and showers near and just west of Central
America are associated with a tropical wave.  Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next several days while the wave
moves westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.  Locally heavy
rainfall is possible along the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Latto
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发表于 2019-9-17 19:45 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-17 20:00 编辑

2. Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area located about
250 miles south of Acapulco is becoming better defined and is close
to becoming a tropical storm. Advisories will likely be initiated
later this morning, and this system will continue to move west-
northwestward near or just offshore of the coast of Mexico during
the next few days. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system, and watches or warnings
could be required later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
two_pac_2d0.png two_pac_2d2.png two_pac_5d2.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-17 21:47 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-17 21:57 编辑

EP, 15, 2019091712,   , BEST,   0, 133N,  996W,  35, 1005, TS,  34, NEQ,    0,   30,    0,    0, 1010,  120,  20,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,     LORENA, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 031, TRANSITIONED, epC22019 to ep152019,

20190917.1330.goes-16.ir.15E.FIFTEEN.30kts.1008mb.12.2N.98.2W.100pc.jpg
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-17 22:17 | 显示全部楼层
Special Message from NHC        Issued 17 Sep 2019 14:14 UTC   
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Lorena, located about 200 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, at 8 AM PDT.
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发表于 2019-9-17 22:56 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-9-18 00:10 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 171456
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

First-light 1-minute visible imagery from GOES-W revealed that the
disturbance just south of Mexico has developed a well-defined
surface center. The system has also developed an extensive
convective band stretching from the southwest to the northeast
quadrant of the cyclone. A pair of ASCAT passes overnight showed
winds were already at tropical-storm strength, so the system has
been designated as Tropical Storm Lorena. The initial intensity is
set at 35 kt, though the ASCAT data showed winds could actually
already be higher than that, so that may be conservative.

Lorena is moving quickly toward the northwest, or 305/13 kt. A
mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico should keep it
moving generally northwestward for the next few days, at a slightly
slower speed. Most of the dynamical models show this general
scenario, however some of the typically reliable track models,
including the GFS, seem to have trouble resolving the small
cyclone, and show the cyclone moving more west-northwestward. This
small difference is important and could be the difference between
Lorena directly impacting Mexico or passing just to the southwest.
The NHC forecast is on the far right side of the guidance envelope,
favoring the ECMWF and UKMET solutions, which seem to have a more
realistic current depiction of the tropical cyclone. The NHC
forecast is on the far right side of the standard guidance
envelope, but is near the middle of the ECMWF ensemble. This brings
Lorena very near the Mexico coast in about 2 days and it is possible
that the storm could make landfall. At longer ranges the GFS depicts
the beginning of a binary interaction between Lorena and the
newly-formed depression to the west, however at the moment this does
not seem particularly likely, and the NHC forecast favors the ECMWF
through day 5 which shows no such interaction.

Moderate easterly shear appears to be affecting the tropical storm
for now, and this will likely be the primary moderating factor for
Lorena's intensity. SSTs are very warm and there is ample moisture,
but only slow intensification is likely as long as the shear
persists. The NHC forecast therefore shows slow strengthening for
the next couple of days. Beyond that time, if the cyclone moves
inland, it should quickly weaken or possibly dissipate, but if it
stays farther offshore it may have an opportunity to strengthen
further. The NHC forecast holds the cyclone nearly steady-state, but
it is well below the consensus at day 4 and 5, since most of the
intensity models are based on tracks that stay well offshore of
Mexico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 13.7N 100.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  18/0000Z 14.8N 101.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  18/1200Z 16.3N 102.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  19/0000Z 17.5N 103.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  19/1200Z 18.5N 104.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  20/1200Z 20.0N 106.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  21/1200Z 21.0N 108.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  22/1200Z 22.0N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
145805_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
ep1519.gif
15E_171200sair.jpg
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发表于 2019-9-18 09:30 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-9-18 09:41 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 172041
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

A pair of ASCAT passes sampled the circulation of Lorena earlier
this afternoon and showed multiple 40-45 kt wind vectors. Based on
that data, the initial wind speed has been increased to 45 kt for
this advisory. Lorena's cloud structure has improved somewhat
during the afternoon, though Dvorak-based wind estimates are still
notably lower than the ASCAT winds.

The track models have come into much better agreement, and there has
been a large shift eastward in the track guidance. However, since
the NHC track forecast was previously on the east side of the
guidance envelope, only a slight eastward shift was made to the
official forecast. Lorena is still expected to move generally
northwestward for the next day or two, and should move over or very
near the southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday or early
Thursday. If the circulation survives its interaction with land, it
should continue to head northwestward, perhaps toward the Baja
California peninsula. That said, this portion of the forecast is
highly conditional, and Lorena may end up just dissipating over the
high terrain of Mexico. The NHC track forecast is now very close to
TVCN and HCCA, especially through 72 h, and confidence in the track
forecast has increased.

The tropical storm has strengthened, and conditions appear favorable
for additional slow strengthening. Once the circulation approaches
the coast of Mexico, its intensity will become closely tied to its
track. If Lorena moves inland, it will likely weaken quickly and
could dissipate entirely shortly thereafter. If it stays offshore,
it could maintain its strength and even intensify further as it
moves away from the coast of Mexico later this week, as shown by the
HWRF, DSHP, and LGEM models. The NHC intensity forecast is
consistent with the track forecast, and therefore shows Lorena
weakening due to land interaction after 48 h, but is below the
intensity consensus since a number of those models keep the cyclone
farther from the coast.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during
the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the
southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 14.6N 101.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  18/0600Z 15.7N 102.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  18/1800Z 17.3N 103.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  19/0600Z 18.5N 104.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  19/1800Z 19.2N 104.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H  20/1800Z 20.5N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
96H  21/1800Z 22.0N 109.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  22/1800Z 23.5N 112.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
234308_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
ep1519.gif 15E_171800sair.jpg
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发表于 2019-9-18 11:49 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-18 12:06 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 180258
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

There has been little change in the cloud structure of Lorena since
the last advisory, with the storm having a central convective
feature and a ragged band in the western semicircle.  A recently-
received WindSat overpass indicates the low-level center is located
near the northwestern edge of the central convection.  The initial
intensity remains 45 kt in good agreement with a subjective
satellite estimate from TAFB.

The initial motion is 305/13.  A mid- to upper-level ridge over
Mexico should steer Lorena generally northwestward with some
decrease in forward speed during the forecast period, with the
center likely to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico late
Wednesday through Thursday.  The guidance has shifted a little to
the left since the last advisory, and the new forecast track keeps
the center of Lorena a little farther offshore than than the
previous forecast.  However, any motion to the right of the track
would bring the center onshore in southwestern Mexico and cause
rapid dissipation.  If the center stays offshore, Lorena is forecast
to be near the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by
the end of the forecast period.

Conditions appear favorable for slow strengthening as Lorena
approaches the southwestern coast of Mexico.  Based on the forecast
track now staying offshore, the new intensity forecast calls for a
stronger storm by 48-72 h, with Lorena now forecast to be just under
hurricane strength.  This peak would be followed by a weakening
trend as Lorena gradually moves over cooler water.  An alternative
intensity forecast is for Lorena to dissipate if the center moves
onshore in southwestern Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during
the next few days.  This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the
southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 15.1N 102.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  18/1200Z 16.3N 103.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  19/0000Z 17.7N 104.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  19/1200Z 18.6N 104.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  20/0000Z 19.3N 105.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  21/0000Z 20.6N 107.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  22/0000Z 22.0N 110.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  23/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
025944_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png ep1519.gif 15E_180000sair.jpg
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