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[2019] 加利福尼亚湾一级飓风“洛雷娜”(15E.Lorena) - 西北行进入加利福尼亚湾 - NHC:75KT

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发表于 2019-9-18 12:04 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:聂高臻  签发:梁 健   2019 年  09 月  18 日  10 时
“基科”减弱为热带风暴
东北太平洋一级飓风“基科”(KIKO)已于今天(18日)凌晨(北京时,下同)减弱为热带风暴级,今天上午8点钟其中心位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西偏南方向约1730公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬16.8度、西经125.2度,中心附近最大风力有10级(25米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为986百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向偏西方向移动,强度变化不大。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日08时10分)

“温贝托”将向北偏东方向移动

“温贝托”(HUMBERTO)已于昨天夜间至今天早晨由一级飓风增强为三级飓风,今天(18日)上午8点钟其中心位于百慕大(BERMUDA)西偏南方向约660公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬31.2度、西经71.6度,中心附近最大风力有16级(52米/秒,相当于我国的超强台风级),中心最低气压为951百帕。

预计,“温贝托”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向东偏北方向移动,强度将维持或逐渐减弱。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日08时01分)

“伊梅尔达”在北大西洋生成

北大西洋热带风暴“伊梅尔达”(IMELDA)已于昨天(17日)晚上在美国得克萨斯州(TEXAS)东南部近海生成,随后在在上述地区沿海登陆,并于今天早晨减弱为热带低压。

预计,“伊梅尔达”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏北方向移动,强度继续减弱。

这是关于“伊梅尔达”的最后一期监测公报。

“洛雷娜”在东北太平洋洋面上生成

东北太平洋热带风暴“洛雷娜”(LORENA)已于昨天(17日)晚上在东北太平洋洋面上生成,今天(18日)上午8点钟其中心位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)东南方向约1250公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬14.8度、西经101.6度,中心附近最大风力有9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1002百帕。

预计,“洛雷娜”将以每小时10-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度维持或缓慢增强。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190918020002400_XML_3.gif
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日08时01分)


“马里奥”在东北太平洋洋面上生成

东北太平洋热带风暴“马里奥”(LORENA)已于今天(18日)凌晨在东北太平洋洋面上生成,今天上午8点钟其中心位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)偏南方向约1120公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬12.9度、西经108.9度,中心附近最大风力有8级(18米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1005百帕。

预计,“马里奥”将以每小时10-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度逐渐增强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日08时03分)
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-18 17:01 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-20 18:41 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 180858
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Satellite imagery and a 0352 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicate
that Lorena has strengthened this morning.  Subjective and
objective intensity estimates as well as the scatterometer overpass
support increasing the initial intensity to 50 kt for this advisory.

Although the cloud pattern has improved a bit during the past
several hours, moderate northeasterly shear still appears to be
impinging on the northern portion of the cyclone.  The
statistical-dynamical GFS and ECMWF Decay SHIPS intensity models
both indicate that this upper wind pattern will linger the
next couple of days.  Consequently, gradual strengthening is
expected which is consistent with the aforementioned DSHPS and the
NOAA HFIP HCCA intensity consensus model, and Lorena is forecast to
become a hurricane in 48 hours. Beyond that period, weakening should
commence as the cyclone traverses decreasing oceanic sea surface
temperatures and moves within increasing westerly shear.

An alternative intensity forecast is for Lorena to dissipate if
the center moves onshore in southwestern Mexico which the ECMWF is
showing.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/12 kt.
A deep-layer ridge extending westward over Mexico from the western
Gulf of Mexico is forecast to steer Lorena toward the northwest
with a slight reduction in forward speed through day 5.  This
persistent synoptic steering flow should bring the cyclone near the
southwestern coast of Mexico Thursday and Friday.  The NHC forecast
is a little faster than the previous one and follows the NOAA HFIP
HCCA consensus which keeps the cyclone offshore.


Key Messages:

1. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during
the next few days.  This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the
southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 16.1N 103.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
12H  18/1800Z 17.4N 104.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  19/0600Z 18.5N 104.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  19/1800Z 19.4N 105.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  20/0600Z 20.1N 106.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  21/0600Z 21.5N 108.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  22/0600Z 23.2N 111.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  23/0600Z 25.6N 112.9W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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发表于 2019-9-18 17:27 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-18 17:31 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:聂高臻  签发:梁 健   2019 年  09 月  18 日  18 时
“基科”向偏西方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(18日)下午2点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西偏南方向约1790公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬16.6度、西经125.6度,中心附近最大风力有9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1002百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向偏西方向移动,强度变化不大。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日14时00分)

“温贝托”将向北偏东方向移动

北太平洋三级飓风“温贝托”(HUMBERTO)的中心今天(18日)下午2点钟位于百慕大(BERMUDA)偏西方向约540公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬31.5度、西经70.4度,中心附近最大风力有16级(52米/秒,相当于我国的超强台风级),中心最低气压为951百帕。

预计,“温贝托”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向东偏北方向移动,强度将维持而后逐渐减弱。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日14时00分)

“洛雷娜”向西北方向移动

东北太平洋热带风暴“洛雷娜”(LORENA)的中心今天(18日)下午2点钟位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)东南方向约1110公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬15.6度、西经102.6度,中心附近最大风力有9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1002百帕。

预计,“洛雷娜”将以每小时10-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度维持或缓慢增强。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190918100002400_XML_3.gif
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日14时00分)


“马里奥”向西北方向移动

东北太平洋热带风暴“马里奥”(MARIO)的中心今天(18日)下午2点钟位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)偏南方向约1050公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬13.4度、西经109.5度,中心附近最大风力有8级(20米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1003百帕。

预计,“马里奥”将以每小时10-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度逐渐增强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日14时00分)
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发表于 2019-9-18 22:37 | 显示全部楼层
NHC或将进行飞机实测

000
NOUS42 KNHC 171632
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1235 PM EDT TUE 17 SEPTEMBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2019
         TCPOD NUMBER.....19-112

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE HUMBERTO
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75
       A. 18/2330Z                   A. 19/0530Z
       B. AFXXX 1509A HUMBERTO       B. AFXXX 1609A HUMBERTO
       C. 18/1915Z                   C. 19/0045Z
       D. 33.0N 66.3W                D. 34.1N 64.3W
       E. 18/2300Z TO 19/0230Z       E. 19/0500Z TO 19/0830Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. FIX TD 10 AT 19/1500Z NEAR 16.6N 53.8W AND THEN BEGIN
          6-HRLY FIXES AT 19/2330Z.
       B. A NOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND TD 10
          FOR 20/0000Z, DEPARTING TBPB AT 19/1730Z.
    3. REMARKS:
       A. A 18/1730Z FIX REQUIREMENT HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE TEAL 71
          MISSION INTO HUMBERTO TASKED IN TCPOD 19-111 FOR 18/1130Z.
       B. NO NOAA AIRCRAFT RESEARCH MISSIONS WILL BE FLOWN TODAY.
       C. AN APPROXIMATELY 8-HR NOAA G-IV RESEARCH MISSION AROUND
          TD 10 IS SCHEDULED TO DEPART TBPB AT 18/1300Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM LORENA
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 73
       A. 18/1900Z
       B. AFXXX 0115E LORENA
       C. 18/1445Z
       D. 17.0N 103.0W
       E. 18/1830Z TO 18/2200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX LORENA AT 19/1900Z NEAR
       19.0N 105.0W IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
    3. REMARKS:
       A. THE NCAR/NSF G-V IS FLYING A RESEARCH MISSION TODAY OVER
          THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND SW CARIBBEAN, NORTH AND SOUTH OF
          PANAMA. ALTITUDES OF 40,000-45,000 FT AND 29 DROPS.
       B. THE NCAR/NSF G-V WILL FLY A RESEARCH MISSION TOMORROW OVER
          THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF CENTRAL AMERICA, DEPARTING MRLB
          AT 18/1230Z.  ALTITUDES OF 40,000-45,000 FT AND 32 DROPS.


$$
SEF

NNNN
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发表于 2019-9-19 00:29 | 显示全部楼层
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 181452
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Lorena's cloud pattern has improved this morning, with the
development of a central dense overcast feature, and several bands
wrapping around the circulation.  The initial intensity has been
increased to 55 kt, which is in agreement subjective satellite
estimates from SAB, and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS.  Lorena
is located within favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions, and
additional strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24
hours.  After that time, Lorena's intensity will depend on how much
interaction occurs with the mountainous terrain of southwestern
Mexico.  The latest NHC forecast takes the center along the
immediate coast and shows some slight weakening as this occurs.
After that time, re-strengthening is possible as Lorena is forecast
to traverse warm waters to the southeast of the Baja California
peninsula. It should be noted that the intensity forecast is more
uncertain than normal due to the potential for land interaction.

Lorena has moved a little right of the previous track.  Recent
microwave fixes indicated a northwestward motion of 325/11 kt.
Lorena is forecast to move northwestward around the southwestern
portion of mid-level ridge.  The overall track envelope has nudged
eastward, closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico.  In fact, the
ECMWF brings the center of Lorena onshore tonight, and that is a
distinct possibility.  The early portion of the NHC track has been
nudged eastward, and lies between the aforementioned ECMWF model
track and the various consensus aids.  After 24 hours, most of the
guidance turns Lorena west-northwestward as a narrow ridge builds to
the north of the cyclone.  During this portion of the track
forecast, the guidance has shifted to the right, and the NHC
forecast has been adjusted accordingly.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane and move dangerously
close to the coast of southwestern Mexico later today and tonight.
A hurricane warning has been issued for this area and preparations
to protect life in property should be rushed to completion.

2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during
the next few days.  This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 17.4N 103.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  19/0000Z 18.6N 104.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  19/1200Z 19.8N 105.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  20/0000Z 20.5N 106.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  20/1200Z 21.2N 107.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  21/1200Z 22.4N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  22/1200Z 24.0N 112.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  23/1200Z 26.7N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-19 05:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-19 06:56 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 182048
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Visible satellite imagery has continued to show an improvement in
banding around the center of Lorena this afternoon.  Bands now wrap
completely around the center, but there have been no recent
microwave images to see if an eye has developed.  The increase in
organization has led to higher objective satellite intensity from
UW/CIMSS, and a blend of the SAB and ADT estimates yields an initial
intensity of 60 kt.  Additional strengthening is likely, and Lorena
is forecast to become a hurricane tonight while it moves over warm
water with low shear conditions. The storm is predicted to move very
close to or over the southwestern coast of Mexico later tonight and
early Thursday, and the remainder of the intensity forecast will
depend on how much land interaction occurs and the eventual
structure of the storm afterward. If Lorena moves to the right of
the official forecast, more significant weakening is likely and the
storm would struggle to re-strengthen later in the period.  The new
NHC track forecast shows slightly less interaction of the core of
the cyclone with land, and assumes Lorena will be able to continue
strengthening while the shear remains low and it moves over very
warm waters southeast of the Baja California peninsula.

Lorena is moving northwestward or 320/11 kt.  The track guidance
remains about the same as before, with the ECMWF taking the center
inland over southwestern Mexico while most of the remainder of the
guidance keeps it just offshore.  The NHC forecast is slightly west
of the previous advisory through 24 hours, but continues to show the
center passing very close to southwestern Mexico.  After that time,
a narrow mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the north of
Lorena, and this should lead to a west-northwestward motion with
Lorena passing near or just south of the southern tip of the Baja
Peninsula.  The NHC track forecast is in best agreement with the
HFIP corrected consensus.

Due the potential for land interaction within the next 12-24 hours,
there is greater than usual uncertainty in both the track and
intensity forecast for Lorena through day 5.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane and move dangerously
close to the coast of southwestern Mexico tonight and Thursday.
A hurricane warning is in effect and preparations to protect life in
property should be rushed to completion.

2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during
the next few days.  This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides.

3. Lorena could threaten the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula as a hurricane this weekend, but the forecast
is more uncertain due to the potential for land interaction tonight
and Thursday.  Residents should ensure that their hurricane plan is
in place as watches may be required tonight or Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 17.9N 104.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  19/0600Z 19.2N 105.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  19/1800Z 20.1N 106.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  20/0600Z 20.7N 107.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  20/1800Z 21.2N 108.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  21/1800Z 22.5N 110.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  22/1800Z 24.5N 113.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  23/1800Z 26.6N 115.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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发表于 2019-9-19 10:51 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-19 11:50 编辑

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 190244
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Earlier microwave imagery showed that Lorena's structure has
continued to improve, with a well-defined low-level ring noted in
the 37-GHz channel.  The convective signature in infrared satellite
imagery is somewhat ragged, although it appears that a warm spot
may be developing near the estimated center.  Objective SATCON and
ADT intensity estimates are 66 kt and 75 kt, respectively, which is
higher than the 55-kt subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB.
However, given the improved microwave pattern, the initial
intensity hedges toward the objective numbers, making Lorena a
65-kt hurricane.

Both the track and intensity forecast hinge on whether Lorena
survives its fly-by of the coast of Mexico.  If the center stays
just offshore, which several of the models show, then a
strengthening ridge over northern Mexico should steer the cyclone
northwestward and west-northwestward away from west-central Mexico
after 24 hours, heading in the general direction of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.  The ECMWF is the only model
at the moment that shows Lorena's center moving inland, or
interacting with the high terrain enough, to dissipate within the
next 12-24 hours.

All that being said, the NHC track forecast assumes that Lorena
will survive the next 24 hours, and it has been nudged southwestward
beyond 36 hours, close to the multi-model consensus aids and the
HCCA model.  Based on this track, environmental conditions appear
favorable for further strengthening during the next couple of days.
Weakening should commence by day 3 once the system encounters areas
of higher shear and significantly lower oceanic heat content values.

As already insinuated above, due the potential for land interaction
within the next 12-24 hours, there is greater than usual uncertainty
in both the track and intensity forecast for Lorena through day 5.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena will be dangerously close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico tonight and on Thursday.  A hurricane warning is in effect,
and preparations to protect life in property should have been
completed.

2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few
days.  This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Lorena could threaten the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula as a hurricane this weekend, but the forecast
is more uncertain due to the potential for land interaction tonight
and Thursday.  Residents should ensure that their hurricane plan is
in place as watches may be required on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 18.7N 104.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  19/1200Z 19.7N 105.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  20/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  20/1200Z 21.0N 107.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  21/0000Z 21.4N 109.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  22/0000Z 22.6N 111.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  23/0000Z 24.6N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  24/0000Z 26.4N 115.3W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
024620_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png ep1519.gif 15E_190000sair.jpg
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发表于 2019-9-19 11:36 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-19 11:50 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:吕爱民  签发:林金凎   2019 年  09 月  19 日  10 时
“基科”向偏西方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(19日)上午8点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西偏南方向约1990公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬15.8度、西经127.5度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为998百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小时5-10公里的速度继续向偏西方向移动,强度将有所加强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月19日08时00分)

“洛雷娜”向西北方向移动

东北太平洋热带风暴“洛雷娜”(LORENA)的中心今天(19日)上午8点钟位于墨西哥曼萨尼略(MANZANILLO)南偏东方向约100公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬18.3度、西经104.3度,中心附近最大风力有11级(30米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为993百帕。

预计,“洛雷娜”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度将维持或缓慢增强。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190919020002400_XML_2.png
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月19日08时00分)


“马里奥”向西北方向移动

东北太平洋热带风暴“马里奥”(MARIO)的中心今天(19日)上午8点钟位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)南偏东方向约900公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬15.1度、西经112.1度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为998百帕。

预计,“马里奥”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度将缓慢增强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月19日08时00分)

“温贝托”将向东偏北方向移动

北太平洋三级飓风“温贝托”(HUMBERTO)的中心今天(19日)上午8点钟位于百慕大(BERMUDA)偏北方向约120公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬33.2度、西经65.0度,中心附近最大风力有15级(50米/秒,相当于我国的强台风级),中心最低气压为955百帕。

预计,“温贝托”将以每小时30公里左右的速度向东偏北方向移动,强度将逐渐减弱。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月19日08时00分)

北大西洋热带风暴“杰里”生成

北大西洋热带风暴“杰里”(JERRY)已于昨天(18日)生成,今天(19日)上午8点钟其中心位于背风群岛(THE LEEWARD ISLANDS)偏东方向约1150公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬15.2度、西经51.2度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为998百帕。

预计,“杰里”将以每小时25公里左右的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度将逐渐加强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月19日08时00分)
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-19 16:46 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-19 18:02 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 190843
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Satellite imagery and surface observations from Mexico indicate that
the center of Lorena is either inland or hugging the coast. A large
portion of the eastern semicircle is interacting with the high
terrain. Given the microwave presentation showing a small mid-level
eye a few hours ago, and the fact that Dvorak numbers have not
changed much, the initial intensity has been kept generously at 65
kt in this advisory. However, Lorena is a very small cyclone and
these winds are limited to a very small area near the center.

Since a large portion of the cyclone is over land, some weakening is
anticipated during the next 12 hours. However, once the center
reaches the warmer waters between Cabo Corrientes and the southern
portion of the Baja California peninsula, strengthening is
indicated. After 2 or 3 days, the environment will be less favorable
and weakening should commence. By then, Lorena should be over water
or very near the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. One
complicating factor which makes this forecast highly uncertain is
the possibility that Lorena interacts with the circulation of
Tropical Storm Mario which is located not too far to the southwest.
Some global models combined the circulations of the two cyclones
into one. At this time, the NHC forecast assumes that Lorena will
continue as a separate system through five days.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north-
northwest or 330 degrees at 7 knots. The cyclone is being
steered by a persistent subtropical high over Mexico, but the
easterly flow around Mario should force Lorena on a more
west-northwest track. Beyond 3 days, track models diverge
significantly, with some bringing the cyclone west of the peninsula
and others to the east.  The NHC forecast follows the previous one,
and brings Lorena as a weakening cyclone along the west coast of the
peninsula.  This forecast is highly uncertain at this time.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena will be moving over or close to the coast of southwestern
Mexico today.  A hurricane warning is in effect, and preparations to
protect life in property should have been completed.

2. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the
Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few
days.  This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.

3. Lorena could threaten the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula as a hurricane this weekend, but the forecast
is highly uncertain due to the potential for the land interaction
currently occuring.  Residents should ensure that their hurricane
plan is in place as watches may be required on Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0900Z 19.6N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  19/1800Z 20.5N 105.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  20/0600Z 21.2N 107.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  20/1800Z 21.7N 108.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  21/0600Z 22.2N 110.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  22/0600Z 24.0N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  23/0600Z 26.0N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  24/0600Z 28.0N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
085607_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
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15E_190600sair.jpg
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发表于 2019-9-19 17:14 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-19 17:19 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:吕爱民  签发:林金凎   2019 年  09 月  19 日  18 时
“基科”向偏西方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(19日)下午2点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西南方向约2050公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬15.8度、西经128.0度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为998百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小时5-10公里的速度继续向偏西方向移动,强度还将有所加强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月19日14时00分)

“洛雷娜”加强为一级飓风

东北太平洋热带风暴“洛雷娜”(LORENA)已于天(19日)下午加强为一级飓风,下午2点钟其中心位于墨西哥曼萨尼略(MANZANILLO)西偏北方向约40公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬19.3度、西经104.9度,中心附近最大风力有12级(33米/秒,相当于我国的台风级),中心最低气压为990百帕。

预计,“洛雷娜”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度将缓慢增强。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190919100002400_XML_2.gif
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月19日14时00分)


“马里奥”向西北方向移动

东北太平洋热带风暴“马里奥”(MARIO)的中心今天(19日)下午2点钟位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)南偏东方向约850公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬15.6度、西经111.9度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为998百帕。

预计,“马里奥”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度将缓慢增强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月19日14时00分)

“温贝托”将向东偏北方向移动

北太平洋三级飓风“温贝托”(HUMBERTO)的中心今天(19日)下午2点钟位于百慕大(BERMUDA)北偏东方向约315公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬34.7度、西经63.0度,中心附近最大风力有16级(55米/秒,相当于我国的超强台风级),中心最低气压为952百帕。

预计,“温贝托”将以每小时40公里左右的速度向东偏北方向移动,强度将逐渐减弱。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月19日14时20分)

“杰里”向西偏北方向移动

北大西洋热带风暴“杰里”(JERRY)的中心今天(19日)下午2点钟位于背风群岛(THE LEEWARD ISLANDS)偏东方向约1000公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬15.7度、西经52.5度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为997百帕。

预计,“杰里”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度将逐渐加强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月19日14时00分)
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