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[2019] 加利福尼亚湾一级飓风“洛雷娜”(15E.Lorena) - 西北行进入加利福尼亚湾 - NHC:75KT

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一条通往星星的崎岖道路

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发表于 2019-9-20 00:17 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-9-20 00:23 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 191450
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Microwave and satellite imagery indicated that the center of Lorena
moved along the southwestern coast of Mexico overnight and this
morning.  More recent 1-minute GOES-17 visible satellite imagery
suggests that the center has now moved offshore just west of Cabo
Corrientes.  Assuming that some weakening occurred while the core
interacted with land, the initial intensity has been reduced to
60 kt for this advisory.  This is in agreement with an average of
the SAB and TAFB satellite estimates.  Although the inner core has
likely been disrupted, the overall satellite appearance suggests
Lorena remains well organized with excellent banding and very cold
cloud tops over the center.  Lorena will be traversing very warm
water to the southeast of the Baja California peninsula and the
upper-level environment is expected to be quite favorable.
Therefore, re-strengthening is anticipated during the next day or
so, and the NHC intensity forecast is closest to the higher
statistical guidance.  This foreast could be on the low side if the
inner core has remained more intact that currently thought. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
Lorena this afternoon, and this data should provide a better
estimate of the current intensity and structure of the cyclone.

Recent satellite and microwave fixes show that Lorena is moving
northwestward or 320/9 kt. A west-northwesterly motion is expected
to begin later today while Lorena moves between a mid-level ridge
to the north and Tropical Storm Mario to its southwest. This
forecast assumes that Lorena will remain the dominant system if it
interacts with Mario, and will eventually turn northwestward around
the western portion of the ridge. This scenario is favored by most
of the ECMWF ensemble members, and is close the GFS ensemble mean.

Although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the
exact track and intensity of Lorena, the government of Mexico has
issued a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning for a portion
of the southern Baja California peninsula.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states
of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue along a
portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico through this afternoon.

3. Lorena is forecast re-strengthen into a hurricane and move very
close to the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by
Friday afternoon, and could bring hurricane conditions to the area.
A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been issued,
and residents should heed the advice of local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/1500Z 20.5N 105.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  20/0000Z 21.2N 106.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  20/1200Z 21.7N 108.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  21/0000Z 22.2N 109.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  21/1200Z 22.7N 110.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  22/1200Z 24.8N 112.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  23/1200Z 26.8N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  24/1200Z 28.8N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-20 04:45 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-20 07:02 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 192037
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

The center and structure of Lorena was extremely difficult to
determine this morning after the core of the tropical cyclone
interacted with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico.
The aircraft that was scheduled to investigate Lorena had mechanical
issues and was unable to complete its mission.  Thankfully, a
fortuitous GMI microwave overpass around 1800 UTC and more recent
ASCAT data has provided some clarity on the location and structure
of the cyclone.  According to that data, the center is located just
southwest of the Islas Marias, and the ASCAT revealed peak winds of
45-50 kt.  Given the typical undersampling of the ASCAT for in
small tropical cyclones, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt,
which is between the peak scatterometer winds and the higher
satellite estimates. Since the microwave data suggests that the
inner core appears to be somewhat intact, some strengthening is
expected while the cyclone moves over warm water and remains
in a low shear environment during the next 24 hours or so.  As a
result, Lorena is forecast to be a hurricane when it pass near or
over the southern Baja peninsula.  After that time, interaction
with land is likely to cause some decrease in wind speed.

Lorena has been moving faster than expected, and the initial motion
estimate is 315/11 kt.  The cyclone should turn west-northwestward
tonight as it moves between a mid-level ridge to its northeast and
Tropical Storm Mario to the southwest.  If Lorena remains separated
from Mario (as shown by the latest ECMWF), a turn back toward the
northwest is expected as the storm moves around the southwestern
portion of the ridge.  The new NHC track forecast lies between the
HFIP corrected consensus model and the latest ECMWF.

Although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the
exact track and intensity of Lorena, the government of Mexico has
issued a Hurricane Warning for a portion of the southern Baja
California peninsula.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states
of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to continue along a
portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico through this evening.

3. Lorena is forecast to re-strengthen into a hurricane and bring
hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall to a portion of the
southern Baja California peninsula beginning on Friday.  A Hurricane
Warning has been issued, and preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 21.6N 107.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  20/0600Z 22.4N 108.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  20/1800Z 22.8N 109.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  21/0600Z 23.5N 111.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  21/1800Z 24.4N 112.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  22/1800Z 27.0N 114.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  23/1800Z 29.0N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-20 10:42 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-20 12:24 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 200241
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019

Geostationary satellite data and a recently received SSM/IS overpass
suggest that Lorena has gotten a little better organized since the
last advisory, with a central dense overcast forming near or over a
small mid-level eye seen in the microwave data.  However, the
various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates
indicate that the cyclone has not yet regained hurricane strength.
The initial intensity is thus held at 60 kt.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/9.  Lorena is
located between a mid- to upper-level ridge over northern Mexico
and Tropical Storm Mario to the south-southwest, while a large
mid- to upper-level trough is northwest of Lorena over the western
United States and the northeastern Pacific.  The potential for
Lorena to interact with Mario is producing a large spread in the
guidance and a low confidence track forecast.  Much of the track
guidance, including the GFS, HWRF, HMON, and the GFS ensemble mean
show Lorena turning so sharply westward around the north side of
Mario that it passes south of the Baja California peninsula.  At
the other extreme is the older version of the GFS, which forecasts
Lorena to moved northwestward up the Gulf of California due mainly
to the influence of the Mexican ridge and the U. S. trough.  The
ECMWF model forecasts a track generally over the Baja California
peninsula, while the UKMET shows a track into the southern Gulf of
California followed by a westward turn across southern Baja.  The
new forecast track is similar to the previous track in forecasting
Lorena to pass near the southern end of the Baja California
peninsula, then move generally northwestward near the west coast of
the peninsula.  The new track lies well to the right of the various
consensus models, but it lies to the left of the ECWMF and the old
GFS model.  Adjustments to the forecast track may occur once the
amount of influence Mario will have on Lorena become more apparent.

The intensity forecast is also very uncertain due to the track
forecast uncertainties.  The new intensity forecast is based on the
track forecast that keeps Lorena over the water near the west coast
of the the Baja California peninsula, with the cyclone re-gaining
hurricane status before it moves over colder sea surface
temperatures and eventually dissipates over the cold water.
However there are three alternate scenarios.  First, the GFS
suggests the possibility that Mario will absorb Lorena and cause it
to completely dissipate.  Second, the older version of the GFS, with
its forecast over the warm waters of the Gulf of California, would
could allow Lorena to be stronger than currently forecast.  Finally,
the ECMWF's track over the Baja California Peninsula would also
cause Lorena to weaken faster than currently forecast.

The forecast track requires new warnings and watches for portions
of Baja California del Sur.  Additional warnings and watches may be
required for this area on Friday.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue over portions of the Mexican states
of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next day or so. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

2. Lorena is forecast to re-strengthen into a hurricane and bring
hurricane-force winds and heavy rainfall to a portion of the
southern Baja California peninsula beginning on Friday.  A Hurricane
Warning has been issued, and preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 22.3N 107.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  20/1200Z 22.6N 108.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  21/0000Z 23.1N 110.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  21/1200Z 23.9N 111.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  22/0000Z 24.8N 112.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
72H  23/0000Z 27.5N 114.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
96H  24/0000Z 29.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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发表于 2019-9-20 11:38 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-20 12:02 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:聂高臻  签发:张 玲   2019 年  09 月  20 日  10 时
“基科”向西北方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(20日)上午8点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西偏南方向约2170公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬16.4度、西经129.5度,中心附近最大风力有9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1002百帕。
预计,“基科”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西北方向移动,强度还将有所加强。

卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月20日08时03分)
“洛雷娜”减弱为热带风暴
东北太平洋一级飓风“洛雷娜”(LORENA)已于昨天(19日)晚上减弱为热带风暴,今天上午8点钟其中心位于位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)东偏南方向约300公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬21.9度、西经107.3度,中心附近最大风力有11级(30米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为994百帕。
预计,“洛雷娜”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度还将略有增强。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190920020002400_XML_2.gif
卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月20日08时03分)

“马里奥”向西北方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“马里奥”(MARIO)的中心今天(20日)上午8点钟位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)偏南方向约620公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬17.3度、西经110.4度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为998百帕。
预计,“马里奥”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向东北转西北方向移动,强度维持。

卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月20日08时03分)
“温贝托”减弱为二级飓风
北太平洋三级飓风“温贝托”(HUMBERTO)已于昨天(19日)晚上减弱为二级飓风,今天(20日)上午8点钟其中心位于百慕大(BERMUDA)东北方向约950公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬39.2度、西经58.4度,中心附近最大风力有14级(45米/秒,相当于我国的强台风级),中心最低气压为960百帕。
预计,“温贝托”将以每小时40公里左右的速度向东北方向移动,强度将逐渐减弱。

卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月20日08时01分)
“杰里”加强为一级飓风
北大西洋热带风暴“杰里”(JERRY)已于昨天(19日)夜间加强为一级飓风,今天(20日)上午8点钟其中心位于背风群岛(THE LEEWARD ISLANDS)偏东方向约700公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬17.7度、西经56.5度,中心附近最大风力有13级(40米/秒,相当于我国的台风级),中心最低气压为979百帕。
预计,“杰里”将以每小时20-30公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度维持或略有加强。

卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月20日08时01分)
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-20 16:42 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-20 16:45 编辑

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Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-20 16:47 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-20 18:35 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 200844
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

A series of METOP-B microwave composite images reveal an improved
inner core this morning with a distinct banding eye feature and
developing outer bands in the east portion of the cyclone.  Lorena
is close to hurricane strength, and the initial intensity of 60 kt
is a compromise of the subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates, and a SATCON analysis of 57 kt.

Lorena is expected to re-gain hurricane strength very soon as it
passes near or over the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Some further intensification is forecast before the
cyclone traverses much cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures
beyond the 36-hour period.  Lorena is expected to degenerate into a
remnant low in 3 days, however, the chances of the cyclone
interacting and becoming absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in 48
hours or so have increased significantly.  Regardless of the
possible interaction scenario, dissipation of Lorena will occur in
less than 4 days.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/8
kt. The cyclone is currently situated between a mid- to upper-level
tropospheric ridge over northern Mexico and larger Tropical Storm
Mario to the southwest, while a high amplitude shortwave trough,
northwest of Lorena, approaches the west coast of the United States.
The global and regional guidance has become more aligned with the
interaction with Mario in a couple of days, and has shifted
considerably toward the west away from the Baja California
peninsula.  Subsequently, a major shift of the official forecast has
been made to the left of the previous forecast, but the NHC track
still lies well to the east of the various multi-model consensus
models.  At this point, only the legacy GFS global model fails to
show binary interaction with Mario.

Wind radii adjustments were made based on 0334 UTC scatterometer
data.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the far southern
Baja California Sur today into Saturday, with flash flooding
possible.

2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of
the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0900Z 22.3N 108.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  20/1800Z 22.5N 109.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  21/0600Z 22.7N 110.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  21/1800Z 23.1N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  22/0600Z 24.1N 113.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  23/0600Z 26.4N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED BY MARIO

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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有贴自远方来,不亦抢乎?

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发表于 2019-9-20 17:25 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-9-20 17:36 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:聂高臻  签发:张 玲   2019 年  09 月  20 日  18 时
“基科”向西北方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(20日)下午2点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)偏西方向约2200公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬16.8度、西经129.9度,中心附近最大风力有9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1002百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西北方向移动,强度还将有所加强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月20日14时00分)

“洛雷娜”向西北方向移动

东北太平洋热带风暴“洛雷娜”(LORENA)的中心今天(20日)下午2点钟位于位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)东偏南方向约180公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬22.4度、西经108.3度,中心附近最大风力有11级(30米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为997百帕。

预计,“洛雷娜”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度维持或略有增强。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190920100002400_XML_2.jpg
卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月20日14时00分)


“马里奥”向西北方向移动

东北太平洋热带风暴“马里奥”(MARIO)的中心今天(20日)下午2点钟位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)偏南方向约610公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬17.4度、西经110.3度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为994百帕。

预计,“马里奥”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向东北转西北方向移动,强度维持或略有增强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月20日14时00分)

“温贝托”变性为温带气旋

北太平洋三级飓风“温贝托”(HUMBERTO)已于今天(20日)白天变性为温带气旋,中央气象台对其停止监测。

这是关于“温贝托”的最后一期监测公报。

“杰里”加强为二级飓风

北大西洋一级飓风“杰里”(JERRY)已于今天(20日)白天加强为二级飓风,今天下午2点钟其中心位于背风群岛(THE LEEWARD ISLANDS)偏东方向约550公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬18.1度、西经57.9度,中心附近最大风力有14级(45米/秒,相当于我国的强台风级),中心最低气压为981百帕。

预计,“杰里”将以每小时20-30公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,逐渐减弱减弱。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月20日14时00分)
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论坛版主-副热带高压

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-20 17:35 | 显示全部楼层
WTPZ65 KNHC 200929
TCUEP5

Hurricane Lorena Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...LORENA BECOMES A HURRICANE...

Satellite intensity estimates indicate that Lorena has strengthened
into a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph
(120 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 330 AM MDT...0930 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 108.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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热带风暴

一条通往星星的崎岖道路

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发表于 2019-9-21 00:23 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-9-21 00:29 编辑

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 201452
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

Microwave data overnight showed that an eye feature was trying
to form, and this feature became really distinct on the 1059 UTC
SSMIS image. A hint of an eye is becoming apparent on visible images
at this time. An average of subjective and objective T-numbers
yields an initial intensity of 65 kt.

Lorena is moving over very warm waters, and this could help the
cyclone to strengthen some during the next 12 hours while the
cyclone is near or over the southern portion of the Baja California
peninsula. After that time, once the cyclone reaches the cooler
waters just west of the peninsula, weakening should the begin.  In
addition, the chances of Lorena becoming absorbed by Tropical Storm
Mario in about 48 hours have increased as indicated by some global
models. Regardless of the possible interaction scenario, dissipation
of Lorena will occur in less than 4 days.

Lorena has been moving very slowly toward the west or 280 degrees at
2 kt. The cyclone is being steered by the flow around a subtropical
ridge over Mexico, and the circulation of Tropical Storm Mario to
the south. Lorena should turn a little more to the west-northwest
around the ridge with some increase in forward speed. Most of the
track guidance indicate that this turn should occur well to the west
of the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is a little bit
to the right of the previous one, and is in between the multi-model
consensus and the corrected consensus HCCA.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the far southern
Baja California Sur today into Saturday, with flash flooding
possible.

2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of
the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/1500Z 22.7N 109.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  21/0000Z 22.8N 110.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  21/1200Z 23.3N 111.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  22/0000Z 23.7N 112.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  22/1200Z 24.4N 113.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  23/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
145810_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png ep1519.gif
15E_201200sair.jpg
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-21 04:58 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-21 05:01 编辑

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