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[2019] 加利福尼亚湾一级飓风“洛雷娜”(15E.Lorena) - 西北行进入加利福尼亚湾 - NHC:75KT

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-21 05:05 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-21 06:34 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 202102
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
300 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

There have been significant changes in this advisory. First, Lorena
has developed and eye, and data from an Air Force reconnaissance
plane indicate that the initial intensity has increased to 75 kt.
However, these winds are occuring within a small area near the
center.

More importantly, there has been a significant change in the track
models, and the guidance envelope as a whole has shifted eastward
as a mid-level trough over the western United States deepens and
shifts eastward. Consequently, the NHC forecast track, which was
previously over the southern portion of the peninsula and then over
waters to the west, is now along the spine of the peninsula. This
solution should result in weakening as the hurricane interacts with
the high terrain. However, if another small shift to the right
occurs, the hurricane will be over the warm waters of the Gulf of
California and could remain strong or even intensify. Given that
another eastward shift is possible as indicated by some global
models, the government of Mexico has extended the area of watches
and warnings northward along the east coast of the Baja California
peninsula and has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the mainland
Mexican coast.

For now, the NHC forecast, which in fact is highly uncertain, brings
Lorena toward the northwest about 7 or 8 kt during the next couple
of days. By then Lorena is expected to be a tropical depression, and
after that time it is expected to become a remnant low over the
peninsula. However, be ready for another shift to the right or to
to the left, depending on the new track guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena is expected to bring
heavy rainfall to the southern Baja California Sur tonight into
Saturday, with flash flooding possible.

2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of
the southern Baja California peninsula today, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/2100Z 23.2N 109.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  21/0600Z 23.9N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  21/1800Z 25.5N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
36H  22/0600Z 27.0N 112.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
48H  22/1800Z 28.5N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  23/1800Z 30.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-21 10:58 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-21 11:55 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 210256
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

The eye of Lorena passed near or over the Cabo Pulmo area of the
Baja California peninsula a few hours ago and is currently located
just off of the east coast of the peninsula east-southeast of La
Paz.  Satellite imagery indicates that the hurricane remains well
organized, with cold eyewall cloud tops surrounding a cloud-filled
eye.  Based on the land interaction that has occurred since the last
advisory, the initial intensity is lowered to a possibly
conservative 70 kt.

Lorena has continued to move to the right of the previous forecast
track, and the initial motion is now 330/7.  The hurricane is
mostly being steered by a mid- to upper-level ridge over northern
Mexico, and it is moving toward a break in the ridge caused by a
large mid- to upper-level trough over the western United States.
This combination should steer Lorena generally north-northwestward
for the next 2-3 days.  The track guidance has continued to shift
to the right since the last advisory.  As a result, the new forecast
track has also shifted and now calls for the center of Lorena to
move up the length of the Gulf of California.  However, the GFS,
the old version of the GFS, and the ECMWF are all to the right of
the current track, with these models forecasting a more northward
motion into mainland Mexico. Thus, additional adjustments to the
forecast track may be required on subsequent advisories.  The new
forecast track requires significant changes to the watches and
warnings for the Baja California peninsula and northwestern mainland
Mexico.

Lorena should spend another 24-36 h over the warm waters of the
Gulf of California in light to moderate shear conditions.  The
intensity guidance does not show much strengthening during this
time, and the official forecast follows the guidance.  However, it
would not be a surprise if Lorena strengthened a little given the
current structure.  After that, the cyclone should encounter
strong shear which would likely cause steady to even rapid
weakening, and the intensity forecast has the system weakening to a
remnant low as it reaches the northern end of the Gulf of
California. If the cyclone makes an earlier landfall in mainland
Mexico, it will likely dissipate faster than currently forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena will produce heavy
rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible this weekend in
parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico.  Moisture associated
with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for heavy rain to the
southwest United States from late this weekend into early next week.

2. Lorena is forecast to bring hurricane-force winds to a portion of
the southern Baja California peninsula through tonight, where a
Hurricane Warning is in effect.  It could also bring hurricane
conditions to portions of mainland Mexico where a Hurricane Watch
has been issued.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 24.0N 109.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  21/1200Z 25.0N 110.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  22/0000Z 26.6N 111.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
36H  22/1200Z 28.1N 112.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
48H  23/0000Z 29.4N 112.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  24/0000Z 31.5N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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一条通往星星的崎岖道路

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发表于 2019-9-21 11:36 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-9-21 11:42 编辑

爆发出东太TC少见的对流,估计是受到地形的影响,以及加利福尼亚湾的潜热,因为下加利福尼亚半岛的存在,內湾才得以有潜热的存在,15E又凑巧进入了內湾,这时候贴着海岸线的优势就体现出来了。
ohcE_npQG3_latest_npac.zoomEP.gif
这里为了不干扰,没有做去水印处理,波段BABD13
RE_20190921_032033.png
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发表于 2019-9-21 11:40 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-21 12:09 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:柳龙生  签发:王海平   2019 年  09 月  21 日  10 时
“基科”向西北方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(21日)上午8点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)偏西方向约2180公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬18.2度、西经130.3度,中心附近最大风力有10级(25米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为999百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动,强度维持后逐渐减弱。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月21日08时00分)

“洛雷娜”加强为一级飓风

东北太平洋热带风暴“洛雷娜”(LORENA)加强为一级飓风,其中心今天(21日)上午8点钟位于位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)东北方向约95公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬23.6度、西经109.5度,中心附近最大风力有12级(33米/秒,相当于我国的台风级),中心最低气压为986百帕。

预计,“洛雷娜”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度逐渐减弱。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190921020002400_XML_2.png
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月21日08时00分)


“马里奥”向西北方向移动

东北太平洋热带风暴“马里奥”(MARIO)的中心今天(21日)上午8点钟位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)偏南方向约550公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬18.2度、西经110.1度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为992百帕。

预计,“马里奥”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西北方向移动,强度维持后逐渐减弱。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月21日08时00分)

“杰里”减弱为一级飓风

北大西洋二级飓风“杰里”(JERRY)已于今天(21日)上午减弱为一级飓风,上午8点钟其中心位于安奎拉岛(THE ANGUILLA ISLANDS)东北方向约200公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬19.9度、西经62.5度,中心附近最大风力有12级(35米/秒,相当于我国的台风级),中心最低气压为991百帕。

预计,“杰里”将以每小时20-30公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度逐渐减弱。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月21日08时00分)
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-21 12:42 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-21 13:12 编辑

WTPZ65 KNHC 210437
TCUEP5

Hurricane Lorena Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
1035 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019

...LORENA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR LA VENTANA MEXICO IN SOUTHEASTERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Hurricane
Lorena made landfall near La Ventana, Mexico, in the state of Baja
California Sur around 0400 UTC (10 pm MDT) with maximum winds of 80
mph (130 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 1035 PM MDT...0435 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 110.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF LA PAZ MEXICO
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM N OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
20190921_043527_sport_goesWest_abi_mesoscale1_03p90um.gif
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ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-21 17:19 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-21 19:21 编辑

WTPZ45 KNHC 210857
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

Lorena made landfall over the southeastern portion of Baja
California Sur several hours ago, and it has now moved back over the
warm waters of the Gulf of California.  Around the time Lorena
made landfall, an observation near La Ventana, Mexico, reported
sustained winds just below hurricane-force and a minimum pressure of
986 mb when it was in the eye of the hurricane.  The satellite
appearance of the cyclone has degraded some because of the land
interaction, and an eye is no longer apparent in geostationary
images.  The initial intensity for this advisory is set at 65 kt
based on the TAFB Dvorak classification.  An ASCAT-C pass confirmed
that Lorena is a compact hurricane, with its tropical-storm-force
winds extending only out to 40 n mi from the center.

Lorena has been a challenging system to forecast as the models have
not had a good handle on its future track.  The models this cycle
have all shifted to the east and now show a landfall in mainland
Mexico tonight or Sunday.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted
to the right to be in better agreement with the latest model
solutions, but this forecast still lies on the western side of the
guidance envelope.  If this model trend continues, additional shifts
to the right might be needed.  Based on this change, the Government
of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of
northwestern Mexico.

The hurricane is expected to maintain its intensity today as it
remains over the warm waters of the Gulf of California, but a
pronounced increase in southwesterly shear and land interaction
with mainland Mexico should cause a quick weakening on Sunday and
dissipation is likely to occur on Monday.  The NHC intensity
forecast is lower than the previous one, but still lies on the high
side of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of any changes in track, Lorena will produce heavy
rain, with life-threatening flash floods possible during the next
couple of days in parts of Baja California and northwest Mexico.
Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to bring a chance for
heavy rain to the southwest United States late this weekend and
early next week.

2. Lorena is forecast to continue to produce hurricane-force winds
over a portion of the southern Baja California today, where a
Hurricane Warning is in effect.  It could also bring hurricane
conditions to portions of mainland Mexico tonight where a Hurricane
Watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0900Z 24.6N 110.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  21/1800Z 25.8N 110.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  22/0600Z 27.5N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  22/1800Z 28.8N 111.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  23/0600Z 29.9N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
72H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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发表于 2019-9-21 17:52 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-21 22:46 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:柳龙生  签发:王海平   2019 年  09 月  21 日  18 时
“基科”向西北方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(21日)下午2点钟(北京时,下同)位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)偏西方向约2200公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬18.7度、西经130.3度,中心附近最大风力有10级(25米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为999百帕。
预计,“基科”将以每小时5公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动,强度逐渐减弱。

卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月21日14时00分)
“洛雷娜”向西北方向移动
东北太平洋一级飓风“洛雷娜”(LORENA)的中心今天(21日)下午2点钟位于位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)境内,就是北纬24.0度、西经110.1度,中心附近最大风力有12级(33米/秒,相当于我国的台风级),中心最低气压为986百帕。
预计,“洛雷娜”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度逐渐减弱。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190921100002400_XML_2.gif
卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月21日14时00分)

“马里奥”向西北方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“马里奥”(MARIO)的中心今天(21日)下午2点钟位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)偏南方向约480公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬18.6度、西经110.2度,中心附近最大风力有10级(25米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为992百帕。
预计,“马里奥”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向西北方向移动,强度逐渐减弱。

卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月21日14时00分)
“杰里”减弱为热带风暴
北大西洋一级飓风“杰里”(JERRY)已于今天(21日)下午减弱为热带风暴,下午2点钟其中心位于圣胡安(SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO)东北方向约385公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬21.0度、西经63.5度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为995百帕。
预计,“杰里”将以每小时20-30公里的速度向西偏北方向移动,强度维持后逐渐加强。

卫星红外监测图像
(北京时间2019年9月21日14时00分)
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发表于 2019-9-21 19:53 | 显示全部楼层
发觉美国自家的预报准确度真低啊
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发表于 2019-9-22 01:01 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-9-22 01:06 编辑

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 211459
TCDEP5

Hurricane Lorena Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152019
900 AM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019

The circulation of Lorena has been interacting with the high terrain
of the Baja California peninsula for the past 12 hours and most
likely the inner core has been disrupted. The center is very
difficult to locate on conventional imagery, but it is estimated to
be near the area of the deepest convection in the Gulf of
California. Based on continuity and Dvorak estimates, the initial
intensity is kept at 65 kt at this time. Given that a portion of
Lorena's circulation will continue to interact with land and that
the shear is forecast to increase significantly, gradual weakening
is anticipated. However, the intensity forecast is uncertain since
we do not know how much the inner core was disrupted by land. An Air
Force plane will investigate Lorena later today and should provide
a better assessment of Lorena's winds.

Since we do not have a good center location, the initial motion is
uncertain but the best estimate is toward the north or 350 degrees
at 10 kt. The steering currents associated with a subtropical high
over Mexico and an approaching mid-latitude trough should force
Lorena on a northerly track across the Gulf of California, and bring
the center of Lorena to mainland Mexico in about 24 hours. Once the
center moves inland rapid weakening is anticipated. The NHC forecast
is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is very close to the
corrected consensus HCCA.

Key Messages:

1. Lorena will produce heavy rain, with life-threatening flash
floods possible this weekend in parts of Baja California and
northwest Mexico. Moisture associated with Lorena is forecast to
bring a chance for heavy rain to the southwest United States late
this weekend and early next week.

2. Lorena is forecast to continue to produce tropical-storm-force
winds over a portion of the east coast of the Baja California
peninsula today. These conditions are expected to reach portions of
mainland Mexico tonight where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane
Watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1500Z 25.6N 110.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  22/0000Z 27.0N 111.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
24H  22/1200Z 29.0N 111.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  23/0000Z 31.0N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
48H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila
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金玉良言

QQ
发表于 2019-9-22 02:43 | 显示全部楼层
风圈真是小到极致
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