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[2019] 德克萨斯州近海热带风暴“伊梅达”(11L.Imelda) - 超近岸获名,直袭休斯顿

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台风

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3569
发表于 2019-9-17 08:22 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 327 于 2019-9-23 08:00 编辑

AL, 98, 2019091700,   , BEST,   0, 273N,  950W,  20, 1010, DB
98L INVEST 190917 0000 25.0N 94.0W ATL 15 NA

20190917.0000.goes-16.ir.98L.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.25N.94W.100pc.jpg
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2. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure.  Some slow
development of this system is possible before it moves inland along
the northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday night.  Regardless of
development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding along portions of the central
and upper Texas coastal areas later this week.  For additional
information, see products issued by your local weather forecast
office and the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

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发表于 2019-9-17 16:57 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:30%/30%

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located nearly 600 miles west of Bermuda.

1. A small low pressure system located a little more than 1000 miles
east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  This system has changed little in
organization since yesterday, but conditions are still expected to
be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the
next day or so while the system moves slowly northwestward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure over
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has become a little more
concentrated during the past several hours. Nearby observations
indicate that although pressures are falling in the area, there are
no signs of a surface circulation at this time.  Some slight
development is possible before the system moves inland along the
northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday night.  Regardless of development,
this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall and
possible flash flooding along portions of the central and upper
Texas coastal areas later this week.  For additional information,
see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the
Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Avila
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强热带风暴

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发表于 2019-9-17 19:43 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-17 19:55 编辑

2. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico near the central Texas coast
has changed little in organization. However, some slight development
is still possible before the system moves inland along the
northwestern Gulf coast later tonight or early Wednesday. Regardless
of development, this disturbance is expected to produce areas of
very heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding along the coastal
regions of southwestern Louisiana and central and upper Texas
tonight and Wednesday, and over eastern Texas and western Louisiana
on Thursday. For additional information, see products issued by your
local weather forecast office and the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
two_atl_2d0.png two_atl_2d2.png two_atl_5d2.png
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论坛版主-副热带高压

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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34695
发表于 2019-9-18 02:00 | 显示全部楼层
449
WTNT41 KNHC 171706
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Eleven Special Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Satellite, radar, and surface data show that the area of low
pressure near the Upper Texas coast has become better defined this
morning.  The associated deep convection has also become better
organized, and winds from the Houston Doppler Radar support
an initial intensity of 30 kt.  Based on these data, advisories are
being initiated on a tropical depression.  The system has very
little time left over water in which to strengthen, but given the
recent increase in organization, the system is forecast to become a
tropical storm before it moves inland.  As a result, a Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of the Upper Texas
coast.  Regardless of the intensity of the system, the primary
threat associated is flooding rainfall that is expected over
portions of eastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana over the next
day or two.

The initial motion estimate is 005/6 kt. The cyclone should move
inland very soon, and a general northward motion around the western
side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Tennessee Valley should
continue through tonight.  The system is forecast to turn north-
northwestward on Wednesday and that general motion is forecast to
continue until dissipation occurs.  The NHC track forecast follows
the solution of the majority of the dynamical models.

Key Messages:

1. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and
Galveston areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1700Z 28.7N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  18/0000Z 29.4N  95.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
24H  18/1200Z 30.1N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
36H  19/0000Z 30.7N  95.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
48H  19/1200Z 31.3N  96.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
165909_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

337
WTNT61 KNHC 171745
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Imelda Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
1245 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA...

Surface observations indicate that the depression has strengthened
as it nears the coast and has become Tropical Storm Imelda, with
maximum sustained winds near 40 mph (65 km/h). A National Ocean
Service observing site at Freeport, Texas, recently reported a
sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1245 PM CDT...1745 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 95.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Brown
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
15749
发表于 2019-9-18 04:40 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-20 21:10 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1145 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Outlook issued to update discussion on low pressure near
the Texas coast.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located more than 500 miles west of Bermuda.  The
National Hurricane center is also issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Depression Ten, located more than 1000 miles east of
the Leeward Islands.

1. Updated: Recent satellite, radar, and surface data show that the
area of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
near the Texas coast has become better defined this morning.  The
associated thunderstorm activity has also increased and become a
little better organized.  If these development trends continue, a
tropical depression could form before the system moves inland later
today or tonight, but significant additional development is not
likely once the system moves inland.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding remain the
primary hazards with this system.  This disturbance is expected to
produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated
maximum totals of 15 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas
into far southwest Louisiana through Thursday.  This rainfall may
produce life-threatening flash floods.  For additional information,
see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the
Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png
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Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under
WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Ten are issued under
WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

Forecaster Brown
al1119,gif.GIF

000
WTNT61 KNHC 171827
TCUAT1

Tropical Storm Imelda Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
130 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...TROPICAL STORM IMELDA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL SPREAD INLAND...

NOAA Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that
Tropical Storm Imelda made landfall near Freeport, Texas at
100 PM CDT with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.

A National Ocean Service observing site at Freeport, Texas reported
a minimum pressure near 1005 mb (29.68 inches) around the time of
landfall.

SUMMARY OF 130 PM CDT...1830 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 95.3W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM S OF FREEPORT TEXAS
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Brown

WTNT41 KNHC 172033
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Imelda Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Shortly after the earlier NHC Special Advisory, the cyclone quickly
intensified just before it made landfall near Freeport, Texas
around 1800 UTC.  A National Ocean Service observing site near
Freeport, Texas, reported sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust to
41 kt, and a minimum pressure of 1005.6 mb.  A Weatherflow station
at Surfside Beach also measured sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust
to 44 kt.  The advisory intensity is set at 35 kt based on recent
Doppler velocities within some of the rain bands that are still
offshore.

Imelda joins a list of several systems in the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico that formed and intensified very near the Texas coast. Other
recent examples include Allison in 2001 and Humberto in 2007.
Thankfully, in this case Imelda made landfall before significant
strengthening could occur.  Now that the center is moving inland,
gradual weakening is expected.  It cannot be stressed enough,
however, that the primary threat from Imelda remains very heavy
rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding that will spread
northward into eastern Texas and portions of western Louisiana
during the next day or so.

Imelda is moving northward at about 6 kt. The cyclone should
continue to move slowly northward to north-northwestward around the
western side of a mid-level ridge over the Tennessee Valley until
dissipation occurs in a couple of days.  The updated NHC track
forecast has been nudged eastward but remains near the center of the
tightly clustered track guidance.

Key Messages:

1. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and
Galveston areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/2100Z 29.3N  95.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  18/0600Z 30.1N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
24H  18/1800Z 30.8N  95.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
36H  19/0600Z 31.4N  95.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
48H  19/1800Z 32.1N  95.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
15749
发表于 2019-9-18 09:50 | 显示全部楼层
WTNT31 KNHC 172338
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
700 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...IMELDA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...
...HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 95.4W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF HOUSTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from Sargent to Port Bolivar, Texas, has
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Imelda
was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 95.4 West.  Imelda
is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through early Wednesday.  A north-
northwestward motion is expected Wednesday night and Thursday.  On
the forecast track, the center of Imelda will continue to move
farther inland across eastern Texas tonight and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Imelda is expected to continue to weaken as it
moves farther inland.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Imelda is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches across the upper coastal region of Texas, including the
Houston and Galveston areas.  Rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with
isolated totals of 10 inches are possible across portions of
southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana through Thursday.  This
rainfall may produce significant to life-threatening flash floods.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
15749
发表于 2019-9-18 11:40 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-18 12:06 编辑

WTNT41 KNHC 180248
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Imelda Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112019
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019

The center of the tropical cyclone continues to move farther inland
over southeast Texas, with a motion estimate of 360/5 kt.  Earlier
surface observations along the coast indicated that the intensity
had dropped below tropical storm strength, so the Tropical Storm
Warning was discontinued.

Although it has weakened, slow-moving Imelda will remain a
rainfall/flood threat for at least the next couple of days.

This is the last NHC advisory on Imelda.  Future information on this
system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather
Prediction Center beginning at 5 AM EDT, under AWIPS header
TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.


Key Messages:

1. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding
along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and
Galveston areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0300Z 29.8N  95.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
12H  18/1200Z 30.5N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
24H  19/0000Z 31.2N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
36H  19/1200Z 31.8N  95.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
48H  20/0000Z 32.7N  95.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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强热带风暴

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发表于 2019-9-18 12:01 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:聂高臻  签发:梁 健   2019 年  09 月  18 日  10 时
“基科”减弱为热带风暴
东北太平洋一级飓风“基科”(KIKO)已于今天(18日)凌晨(北京时,下同)减弱为热带风暴级,今天上午8点钟其中心位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)西偏南方向约1730公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬16.8度、西经125.2度,中心附近最大风力有10级(25米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为986百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向偏西方向移动,强度变化不大。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日08时10分)

“温贝托”将向北偏东方向移动

“温贝托”(HUMBERTO)已于昨天夜间至今天早晨由一级飓风增强为三级飓风,今天(18日)上午8点钟其中心位于百慕大(BERMUDA)西偏南方向约660公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬31.2度、西经71.6度,中心附近最大风力有16级(52米/秒,相当于我国的超强台风级),中心最低气压为951百帕。

预计,“温贝托”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向东偏北方向移动,强度将维持或逐渐减弱。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日08时01分)

“伊梅尔达”在北大西洋生成

北大西洋热带风暴“伊梅尔达”(IMELDA)已于昨天(17日)晚上在美国得克萨斯州(TEXAS)东南部近海生成,随后在在上述地区沿海登陆,并于今天早晨减弱为热带低压。

预计,“伊梅尔达”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏北方向移动,强度继续减弱。

这是关于“伊梅尔达”的最后一期监测公报。


“洛雷娜”在东北太平洋洋面上生成

东北太平洋热带风暴“洛雷娜”(LORENA)已于昨天(17日)晚上在东北太平洋洋面上生成,今天(18日)上午8点钟其中心位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)东南方向约1250公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬14.8度、西经101.6度,中心附近最大风力有9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1002百帕。

预计,“洛雷娜”将以每小时10-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度维持或缓慢增强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日08时01分)

“马里奥”在东北太平洋洋面上生成

东北太平洋热带风暴“马里奥”(LORENA)已于今天(18日)凌晨在东北太平洋洋面上生成,今天上午8点钟其中心位于墨西哥南下加利福尼亚州圣卢卡斯角(THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA)偏南方向约1120公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬12.9度、西经108.9度,中心附近最大风力有8级(18米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1005百帕。

预计,“马里奥”将以每小时10-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度逐渐增强。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月18日08时03分)
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
15749
发表于 2019-9-18 17:05 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-18 18:56 编辑

WTNT31 KWNH 180832
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Imelda Advisory Number   4
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL112019
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...IMELDA MOVING FARTHER INLAND...
...HEAVY RAINS AND SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WILL SPREAD
INLAND OVER EASTERN TEXAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 95.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NNW OF HOUSTON TEXAS
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF COLLEGE STATION TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

Flash flood watches are in effect for southeast Texas and
extreme southwest Louisiana.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Imelda
was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 95.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days with a
slight turn to the north-northwest.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Imelda is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18
inches across portions of eastern Texas, including the
Houston and Galveston areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roth

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 30.0N  95.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  18/1800Z 30.8N  95.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
24H  19/0600Z 31.7N  95.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
36H  19/1800Z 32.9N  96.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  20/0600Z 34.2N  96.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
Imelda_rainfall.gif
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发表于 2019-9-18 18:05 | 显示全部楼层
和费尔南一样都是近岸命名,而且两个名字都是除名后的替补名
说明NHC相当重视实测,哪怕六个小时前还预报成旋概率30%也会临近命名
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