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[2019] TCFA - 夏威夷以西91C - 22.0N 164.6W - CPHC:50%

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发表于 2019-9-17 09:45 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2019-9-19 22:45 编辑

91C INVEST 190917 0000 15.3N 163.3W CPAC 25 1009

20190917.0130.himawari-8.vis.91C.INVEST.25kts.1009mb.15.3N.163.3W.100pc..jpg
two_cpac_2d1..png 48A5EEEC-7FC3-4FD5-8BC3-153E80CC0770.png

1. An area of low pressure with some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms is about 550 miles south-southwest of
Honolulu, Hawaii. Some subsequent development of this system is
possible while it moves northwestward over the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
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发表于 2019-9-17 17:05 | 显示全部楼层

CPHC:30%/40%

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Mon Sep 16 2019

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. An area of low pressure with showers and thunderstorms about 540
miles south-southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii has become better
organized over the past 6 to 12 hours. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and this system
could become a tropical depression within a few days as it moves
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


2. An elongated area of low pressure lies some 800 miles southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii. Slow development is possible during the
next several days while the area slowly moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure, located about 1150 miles west-southwest of Kauai,
continues to remain disorganized. This system is expected to
slowly move northeast into unfavorable environmental conditions.
Development, if any, will be slow to occur.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster Kino
two_cpac_2d0.png
two_cpac_2d1.png
two_cpac_5d0.png
two_cpac_5d1.png
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金玉良言

发表于 2019-9-17 19:08 | 显示全部楼层
东北象限扫到烈风,EC支持其未来有一定发展
WMBas16.png ecmwf_uv850_vort_wpac_fh0-120 (1).gif
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发表于 2019-9-18 08:00 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:TCFA

WTPN21 PHNC 172200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.5N 164.1W TO 22.6N 166.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171712Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.5N 163.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91C) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.5N 163.8W,
APPROXIMATELY 486 NM SOUTHWEST OF PEARL HARBOR, HAWAII. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 172007Z 89GHZ METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION TAKING ON MARGINAL ROTATION
ABOVE AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL MARGINAL, WITH LOW-MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE LLC, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON INVEST 91C TRACKING
NORTHWEST AS IT SLOWLY DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
182200Z.
//
NNNN
172200_cp9119.gif
91C_172200sair.jpg
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发表于 2019-9-18 10:41 | 显示全部楼层

CPHC:50%/50%

本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-9-18 10:45 编辑

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Tue Sep 17 2019

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
two_cpac_2d0.png

1. Showers and thunderstorms are associated with an elongated area of
low pressure around 450 miles southwest of Honolulu. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some
development over the next 24 hours as the system moves toward the
northwest. By late Wednesday or Thursday, chances for development
drop off significantly as the low interacts with another disturbance
approaching from the west. Regardless of development, this system is
expected to bring locally gusty winds and heavy rain to portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

two_cpac_2d1.png two_cpac_5d1.png
2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure, located about 950 miles west-southwest of Kauai, remain
disorganized. This system is expected to slowly move northeast into
unfavorable environmental conditions. Development, if any, will be
slow to occur. Regardless of development, this system is expected to
bring locally gusty winds and heavy rain to portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. An elongated area of low pressure lies around 700 miles southeast of
the Big Island of Hawaii. Slow development is possible during the
next several days while the area slowly moves westward, though the
environmental conditions are only marginally favorable.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster TS
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发表于 2019-9-18 17:41 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:40%/40%

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Tue Sep 17 2019

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Showers and thunderstorms are associated with an area of low
pressure around 500 miles southwest of Honolulu. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some
development over the next 24 hours as the system moves toward the
north northwest. By late Wednesday or Thursday, chances for
development drop off significantly as the low interacts with another
disturbance approaching from the northwest. Regardless of
development, this system is expected to bring locally gusty winds
and heavy rain to portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument over the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low
pressure, located about 830 miles west-southwest of Kauai, remain
disorganized. This system is expected to slowly move northeast into
unfavorable environmental conditions. By late Wednesday or Thursday,
chances for development drop off significantly as the low interacts
with another disturbance approaching from the northwest. Regardless
of development, this system is expected to bring locally gusty winds
and heavy rain to portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. An elongated area of low pressure lies around 700 miles southeast of
Hilo, Hawaii. Slow development is possible during the next several
days while the area slowly moves northwestward, though the
environmental conditions are only marginally favorable.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster Foster
two_cpac_2d0.png
two_cpac_2d1.png
two_cpac_5d0.png
two_cpac_5d1.png
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ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

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发表于 2019-9-18 19:50 | 显示全部楼层

CPHC:40%/40%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-19 02:56 编辑

1. Showers and thunderstorms are associated with an area of low
pressure around 480 miles west-southwest of Honolulu. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for some
development through today as the system moves toward the north
northwest. By late tonight or Thursday, chances for development drop
off significantly as the low interacts with another disturbance
approaching from the northwest. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to bring locally gusty winds and heavy rain to
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
two_cpac_2d1.png
two_cpac_5d1.png
C415E859-7411-482A-96C6-E3E5A0914D2F.gif
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ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

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发表于 2019-9-19 06:46 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:TCFA Cancelled

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-19 06:50 编辑

WTPN21 PHNC 182200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91C) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/172151Z SEP 19//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC
172200).//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 172200). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 91C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 163.8W, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 164.5W, APPROXIMATELY 486 NM SOUTHWEST OF PEARL
HARBOR, HAWAII. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
DISORGANIZING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH WEAKENING OVERHEAD
CONVECTION. A 182010Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN
ISOLATED POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LLC LACKING LOW
LEVEL STRUCTURE. A 181004Z METOC-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS ELONGATED
TROUGHING WITHOUT ANY WIND FIELD ENHANCEMENT. 91C IS CURRENTLY IN A
MERGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY
CONVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91C WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS NO LONGER EXISTS.//
NNNN
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发表于 2019-9-19 09:36 | 显示全部楼层
對流發展較少。
20190918.0141.f15.x.geovis.91CINVEST.25kts-1005mb-167N-1643W.060pc.jpg
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发表于 2019-9-19 12:42 | 显示全部楼层

CPHC:20%/20%

本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-9-19 12:44 编辑

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Wed Sep 18 2019

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
two_cpac_2d0.png

1. Showers and thunderstorms are associated with an area of low
pressure around 300 miles west of Kauai. Environmental conditions
are only marginally conducive for some development through tonight
as the system moves toward the north-northwest. Conditions are
expected to become even less conducive into Thursday as the low
interacts with another disturbance just to its west. As these
disturbances combine, locally gusty winds and heavy rain are
expected for portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

two_cpac_2d1.png two_cpac_5d0.png
2. A disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is associated with
an elongated area of low pressure around 700 miles west of Kauai.
This system is expected to slowly move north-northeast into more
unfavorable environmental conditions through tonight as it interacts
with another area of low pressure just to its east. As these
disturbances combine, locally gusty winds and heavy rain are
expected for portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster TS

跟其他系统搞在一起了。。。。
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