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[2019] 吕宋岛以东99W - 16.3N 122.4E - JMA:TD

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发表于 2019-9-17 13:35 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2019-9-19 15:00 编辑

99W INVEST 190917 0000 15.0N 119.0E WPAC 15 0

20190917.0510.himawari-8.vis.99W.INVEST.15kts.1001mb.15N.119E.100pc.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +5 威望 +5 收起 理由
颱風巨爵 + 5 + 5 99W

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发表于 2019-9-17 14:22 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:LOW

本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-9-17 17:26 编辑

ABPW10 PGTW 170600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/170600Z-180600ZSEP2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161351ZSEP2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 16SEP19 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (PEIPAH) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 142.8E, APPROXIMATELY 82 NM EAST OF IWO TO, AND
HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 161500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 23.8N 132.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 128.8E, APPROXIMATELY
376 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER WITH LIMITED DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS VERY COMPLEX AND ATYPICAL WITH A GYRE-SIZE LOW PRESSURE AREA
SITUATED SOUTH OF JAPAN AND A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER AND JUST
SOUTH OF JAPAN, ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GYRE.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE GYRE WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
INTERACTING WITH, AND DISRUPTING THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE. THIS IS
EVIDENT IN A 170446Z AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING
DEFINED, SHALLOW, FRAGMENTED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD, ILL-
DEFINED CENTER. A 170019Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND 20-25 KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, HOWEVER, WINDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER
ELSEWHERE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG (30-50 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND BROAD DIFFLUENCE.
DYNAMIC GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION OVER THE
NEXT 1-2 DAYS, PERSISTENT MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, AND WEAK
DEVELOPMENT. IN SUMMARY, GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM, WHICH HAS YET TO CONSOLIDATE AS A WARM-CORE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB.
BASED ON THE SURFACE WIND FIELD AND STRONG WESTERLIES, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.0N 119.2E, APPROXIMATELY 117 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. A 170132Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 10-15
KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH 20-25 KNOT WESTERLY
WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE. DYNAMIC GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER LUZON WITH
STEADY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS. THE
REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO GET ABSORBED INTO INVEST 95W. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
9A192678-9BE0-422A-808C-D36CB91520C5.jpeg
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发表于 2019-9-17 14:28 | 显示全部楼层
新TC? 會否影響95W值得觀察。
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发表于 2019-9-17 15:03 | 显示全部楼层
Alexchow 发表于 2019-9-17 14:28
新TC? 會否影響95W值得觀察。

和丹娜丝一样,在东侧洋面和吕宋岛西侧背风低压各发展出一个扰动
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发表于 2019-9-17 16:22 | 显示全部楼层

JMA:TD

本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-9-17 16:45 编辑

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 15N 119E ALMOST STATIONARY.
19091715.png
19091715.png
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发表于 2019-9-17 22:36 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-17 22:46 编辑

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 15N 120E ALMOST STATIONARY.
19091721.png
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发表于 2019-9-18 07:18 | 显示全部楼层
06时天气图显示登陆吕宋岛
D74D46DF-895F-4854-AC03-68C7C07F129B.png
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发表于 2019-9-18 14:14 | 显示全部楼层
JMA撤TD

7443EFA0-BCD0-4C3D-8DFB-7CD0C0CAFC77.png
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发表于 2019-9-18 16:58 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC取消评级

ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZSEP2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.2N 128.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 128.7E, APPROXIMATELY
290 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. THIS SYSTEM IS NOW ASSESSED AS A
MONSOON DEPRESSION, APPROXIMATELY 600-750 NM DIAMETER. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A
180109Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATES A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE
WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. ADDITIONALLY, A PARTIAL
180035Z ASCAT-C IMAGE DEPICTS A WEAK CORE WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK TO STRONG (15-
30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND DIFFLUENT FLOW. VWS IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT 29-30 CELSIUS. DYNAMIC GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS TRACKING THE SYSTEM
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD WITH SLOW CONSOLIDATION OVER THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N
119.2E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg
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