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[2019] 阿拉伯海特强气旋风暴“希卡”(ARB 02/03A.Hikaa) - 24日登陆阿曼中部省 - JTWC:85KT

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发表于 2019-9-19 16:11 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 327 于 2019-9-25 02:00 编辑

91W INVEST 190919 0600 18.0N 72.0E WPAC 15 0
91A INVEST 190919 0600 18.0N 72.0E WPAC 15 0
96A INVEST 190919 0600 18.0N 72.0E IO 15 1010

20190919.0800.himawari-8.ir.96A.INVEST.15kts.NAmb.18N.72E.100pc.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
颱風巨爵 + 3 + 3 96A

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-19 16:44 | 显示全部楼层
ARABIAN SEA:

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS VERY LIKELY TO FORM OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA AND ADJOINING AREAS OF NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA, NORTH KONKAN &
SOUTH GUJARAT COAST BY TOMORROW. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION DURING
SUBSEQUENT 48 HOURS.



SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH CENTRAL, NORTH EAST & EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA OFF KONKAN-KARNATAKA AND KERALA COASTS & GULF OF CAMBAY.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:





24 HOURS   24-48 HOURS   48-72 HOURS    72-96 HOURS   96-120 HOURS

NIL           MOD           HIGH           HIGH           HIGH
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发表于 2019-9-19 21:27 | 显示全部楼层
ECMWF支持一定程度发展
ecmwf_z500_mslp_india_fh0-168.gif
nio.png
70A.png
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发表于 2019-9-20 02:10 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:LOW

本帖最后由 327 于 2019-9-20 02:15 编辑

ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZSEP2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.0N 71.5E, APPROXIMATELY 52 NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK, PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE
WEST. A 191321Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS AN ARC OF
DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF THE LLC WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTION EXTENDING
EAST OVER LAND NORTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
NEAR MUMBAI HAVE RECORDED LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY WIND. 96A
IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE WESTWARD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WINDS
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY, DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72
HOURS. AROUND TAU 72, THE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST, POTENTIALLY MOVING MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE KATHIAWAR
PENINSULA, BEFORE ACCELERATING WESTWARD. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL REMAIN WEAK, LIKELY NOT REACHING THE BASIN
WARNING THRESHOLD OF 35 KNOTS.  NAVGEM IS THE PRINCIPLE OUTLIER IN
BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY, THE TRACK DIRECTION IS FARTHER NORTH,
TAKING THE STORM INTO THE GULF OF OMAN AND EVENTUALLY THE PERSIAN
GULF AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BASED ON THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT, THIS IS ASSESSED AS AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg
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发表于 2019-9-20 18:10 | 显示全部楼层
ARABIAN SEA:

A LOW  PRESSURE  AREA   HAS FORMED OVER  EASTCENTRAL   ARABIAN   SEA
AND ADJOINING   NORTH   MAHARASHTRA  COAST AT 0000UTC OF TODAY THE
20TH SEPT 2019. IT PERSISTED OVER THE SAME REGION AT 0300UTC OF OF
TODAY THE 20TH SEPT 2019 IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS AND
BECOME MORE MARKED AND CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 48
HOURS.



SCATTERED LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH KONKAN ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA
BETWEEN LATITUDE 16.00N TO 20.50N AND EAST OF LONGITUDE 66.00E IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED
LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION
LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL ADJOINING NORTHEAST ARABIAN SEA BETWEEN LATITUDE
16.00N TO 20.50N AND EAST OF LONGITUDE 66.00E AND MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER MALDIVES AND WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION LAY OVER
REST EAST ARABIAN SEA



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:





24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL  NIL  FAIR  MODERATE LOW
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发表于 2019-9-21 15:47 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:REMAINS LOW

ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/201800Z-211800ZSEP2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
18.0N 71.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 70.7E APPROXIMATELY 122 NM
WEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 191228Z 91GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOW A WEAK AND DISORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST.
96A IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THESE
SUPPORTING CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT 96A WILL ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT
TRACKS WESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER OMAN. NAVGEM DEPICTS A
SIMILAR TRACK BUT STRENGTHENS THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
abiosair.jpg
20190920.1228.f18.91pct91h91v.96A.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.19.3N.70.7E.090pc.jpg
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发表于 2019-9-22 08:10 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-22 08:25 编辑

ABIO10 PGTW 212300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/REISSUED/212300Z-221800ZSEP2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.2N 70.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 69.9E, APPROXIMATELY 167 NM
WEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 211901Z 89GHZ GMI IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS 96A IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(15-25 KNOTS) AND HAS VERY LITTLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 27-28 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96A WILL SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD.
ADDITIONALLY, ECMWF SHOWS 96A REACHING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS
WITHIN 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN
abiosair.jpg
20190921.1901.gpm.89hbt.96A.INVEST.25kts.1003mb.19.2N.69.9E.040pc.jpg
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发表于 2019-9-22 13:58 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-22 14:02 编辑

ARB/02/2019
Dated: 22.09.2019

A depression lies over Arabian Sea off Gujarat coast. To intensify further and move towards Oman coast.       

Latest satellite imageries and surface observations indicate that a depression has formed over
eastcentral and adjoining northeast Arabian sea off Gujarat coast and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of
today, the 22nd September, 2019 near latitude 19.8°N and longitude 69.4°E, about 150 km southwest
of Veraval (Gujarat), 610 km south-southeast of Karachi (Pakistan) and 1220 km east-southeast of
Muscat (Oman). It is very likely to intensify further into a deep depression during next 12 hours and
into a cyclonic storm during subsequent 24 hours. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards
towards Oman coast during next 72 hours.
ftrack.png
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发表于 2019-9-22 13:58 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2019-9-22 14:05 编辑

FY4A_CHINA.JPG 3Dasiasec_ir1.jpg FY4A_DISK.JPG
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-9-22 14:05 | 显示全部楼层
LATEST(13).jpg
极大可能已经有ts强度
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