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[2019] 波多黎各以北热带风暴“凯伦”(12L.Karen) - 掠過波多黎各

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有贴自远方来,不亦抢乎?

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发表于 2019-9-20 20:41 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2019-10-9 18:45 编辑

99L INVEST 190920 1200 10.0N 47.5W ATL 25 1011

20190920.1210.goes-16.ir.99L.INVEST.15kts.1011mb.10N.58W.100pc.jpg
two_atl_2d1.png two_atl_5d1.png

1. A tropical wave located about 700 miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The wave is expected to move quickly westward at about 20 mph during
the next few days, and some development is possible while it
approaches and moves across the Windward Islands this weekend.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
development once the wave moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea early
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
14711
发表于 2019-9-21 07:50 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:40%/40%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-21 07:52 编辑

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are currently conducive
for some development, and a tropical depression could form over the
weekend while the system moves quickly westward to west-
northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing the Windward Islands
Saturday night and Sunday.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become
less conducive for development early next week once the wave moves
over the eastern Caribbean Sea.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate this system tomorrow afternoon, if
necessary.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible
over the Windward Islands over the weekend, and interests on those
islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d1.png
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ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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14711
发表于 2019-9-21 14:03 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:40%/50%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-21 14:18 编辑

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are currently conducive
for some development, and a tropical depression could form on Sunday
or early next week while the system moves quickly westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, crossing the Windward Islands on
Sunday.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
development by the middle of next week once the wave moves out of
the northeastern Caribbean Sea.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if
necessary. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible
over much of the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, and interests on
those islands and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d1.png
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ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
14711
发表于 2019-9-21 19:50 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:50%/60%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-21 20:05 编辑

1. A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. The
wave is forecast to move quickly westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph for the next day or two, crossing the Windward Islands
on Sunday. Although the system is currently disorganized,
environmental conditions appear to be conducive for some development
and a tropical depression could form later this weekend or early
next week. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate this system this afternoon. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is possible over much of the Lesser Antilles over the
weekend, and interests on those islands and Puerto Rico should
monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d1.png
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ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
14711
发表于 2019-9-22 07:35 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:60%/70%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-22 07:38 编辑

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong tropical wave
located less than 100 miles east of Barbados have not become any
better organized during the day, and the system does not have a
well-defined circulation.  However, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission
earlier this afternoon indicated that the wave is producing winds
to 35 mph.  At least gradual development of this system is
expected, and a tropical depression or tropical storm could form
during the next couple of days while it moves westward and
then northwestward at about 15 mph across the Windward Islands and
over the eastern Caribbean Sea.  This system is then expected to
turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on
Tuesday.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds
are likely over much of the Lesser Antilles during the next couple
of days and will likely spread across Puerto Rico and the Virgin
Islands by Monday night or Tuesday.  Interests across the eastern
Caribbean should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d1.png
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
14711
发表于 2019-9-22 11:01 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:Special Tropical Weather Outlook 70%/70%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-22 11:04 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Updated for the low pressure area near the Windward Islands.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico.

1. Updated: A strong tropical wave, accompanied by a broad low pressure
area located between Barbados and Tobago, is producing showers and
thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization.  In addition,
recent satellite-derived surface wind data and observations from
Barbados indicate that the disturbance is producing winds to near
tropical storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further
development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form
while it moves westward and then northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea.  The
system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall and strong gusty winds are likely over much of the Lesser
Antilles during the next couple of days and will likely spread
across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or
Tuesday.  Interests across the eastern Caribbean should monitor the
progress of this disturbance since tropical storm watches and
warnings could be required for portions of the Lesser Antilles and
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d1.png
2. A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
overnight and on Sunday.  Environmental conditions are conducive
for development of the wave once it moves over water, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form during
the early or middle part of next week while moving westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Further information on the system near the Windward Islands can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Stewart/Blake
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ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
14711
发表于 2019-9-22 13:48 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:80%/80%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-22 13:52 编辑

1. Satellite, radar and surface data indicate that the area of low
pressure located just north of Tobago in the Windward Islands is
becoming better organized and is producing winds to near tropical
storm force in the eastern portion of the system. Further
development of this disturbance is expected over the next couple of
days, and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form
while it moves west-northwestward and then northwestward at 10 to 15
mph across the Windward Islands and over the eastern Caribbean Sea.
The system is then expected to turn northward, moving near Puerto
Rico and the Virgin Islands on Tuesday.  Heavy rainfall and strong
gusty winds are likely over much of the Leeward and Windward Islands
during the next couple of days and will spread across Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands by Monday night or Tuesday.  Interests across
the eastern Caribbean should monitor the progress of this low, and
tropical storm watches and warnings will likely be required for
portions of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico later today. An Air
Force Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate the system this
afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d1.png
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
14711
发表于 2019-9-22 16:16 | 显示全部楼层
AL, 12, 2019092206,   , BEST,   0, 118N,  598W,  35, 1005, DB,  34, NEQ,  110,  110,    0,    0, 1011,  150,  90,  45,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M, 12, NEQ,  120,  120,    0,    0, genesis-num, 026, TRANSITIONED, alB92019 to al122019,
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论坛版主-副热带高压

ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
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发表于 2019-9-22 17:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-22 17:34 编辑

WTNT42 KNHC 220900
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Scatterometer surface wind data and observations from the Windward
Islands indicate that the low pressure system just east of Tobago
has become better defined. Infrared and microwave satellite imagery
also show that deep convection has increased and has become better
organized around the center. Barbados recently reported a 10-minute
wind of 32 kt gusting to 39 kt, and the earlier scatterometer data
showed a large field of 30-32 kt winds in the eastern semicircle.
Based on these data, the low has been upgraded to Tropical Storm
Karen. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the southern
Windward Islands as a result.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/10 kt. The latest
NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on Karen moving
northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer
ridge for the next 24-36 hours, followed by a turn toward the north
into a break in the ridge currently located over the northern
Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. In the 72-96 hour period, Karen is
forecast to slow down and possibly even stall and turn westward on
day 5 as another large ridge moves eastward across the southeastern
United States and builds to the north of the cyclone. The official
track forecast lies close to the tightly packed consensus track
models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and TVCX.

Little, if any, change in intensity is expected for the next 48
hours due to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. However, the
upper-level flow is expected to be difluent, which should help Karen
maintain its current intensity despite the otherwise unfavorable
shear conditions. By 72 hours and beyond, Karen is forecast to move
underneath an upper-level anticyclone, which should result in a
significant decrease in the shear and also enhance the upper-level
outflow, allowing for some strengthening to occur. The NHC intensity
forecast closely follows a blend of the the intensity consensus
models IVCN and HCCA, and the Decay-SHIPS model.

A Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for Puerto Rico and
the Virgin Islands later today, and Tropical Storm Warnings may be
issued for other areas in the Windward Islands later this morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0900Z 11.9N  60.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  22/1800Z 12.5N  61.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  23/0600Z 13.4N  63.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  23/1800Z 14.7N  64.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  24/0600Z 16.1N  65.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
72H  25/0600Z 19.9N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  26/0600Z 23.4N  65.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  27/0600Z 25.6N  65.6W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
090523_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
al122019.20190922091606.gif
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热带风暴

一条通往星星的崎岖道路

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发表于 2019-9-22 23:01 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-9-22 23:26 编辑

WTNT42 KNHC 221459
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Radar and satellite imagery shows that convection associated with
Karen has lost some organization since advisories were initiated
early this morning.  However, surface observations and a very
recently arriving ASCAT data show that the circulation is
well-defined, and is currently passing through the southern Windward
Islands.  Given the current sprawling structure, nearby dry
mid-level air, and moderate northwesterly shear, no significant
strengthening is expected through 48 hours.  In fact, the system may
have trouble surviving over the eastern Caribbean Sea as the global
models predict an increase in northeasterly upper-level winds over
the system on Monday.  Once the cyclone moves north of Puerto Rico,
the shear is forecast to decrease, and some strengthening is
indicated in the official forecast, but this will depend on the
structure of the system at that time.  At this time, the long range
intensity forecast is quite uncertain.

The initial motion estimate is 290/11 kt. The track guidance is in
good agreement on Karen turning northwestward, and then northward
around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge during the
next day or two.  A northward motion should continue into mid-week
as a weakness in the ridge remains over the western Atlantic.
After that time, models suggest that another ridge will begin to
build over the southeastern U.S. and far western Atlantic which may
cause Karen to slow down by the end of the forecast period.  The
updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory
and lies near the consensus models.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico and the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands.

Key Messages:
1.  Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall will continue to
affect the southern Windward Islands through tonight.

2.  Karen is forecast to approach Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and
British Virgin Islands on Tuesday, and a tropical storm watch has
been issued.  Tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rainfall, and flash
flooding is possible on these islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/1500Z 12.5N  61.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  23/0000Z 13.1N  63.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  23/1200Z 14.2N  64.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
36H  24/0000Z 15.4N  65.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
48H  24/1200Z 16.9N  65.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
72H  25/1200Z 20.7N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
96H  26/1200Z 23.4N  65.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  27/1200Z 25.3N  65.8W   55 KT  65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
115333_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
al102019.gif

WTNT82 KNHC 221509
TCVAT2

KAREN WATCH/WARNING ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL122019
1109 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2019

.TROPICAL STORM KAREN

CAUTION...THIS PRODUCT ONLY APPROXIMATELY CONVEYS THE EXTENT OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND AND SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR
THE PRECISE LATERAL EXTENT OF WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE
COAST...AS WELL AS THE APPROXIMATE LATERAL EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS. THE PRECISE EXTENT OF SURGE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CAN BE FOUND IN THE NWS NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE HAZARD
GRIDS.

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-222315-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.A.1012.190922T1509Z-000000T0000Z/
1109 AM AST SUN SEP 22 2019

$$

ATTN...WFO...SJU...
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