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[2019] 北大西洋中部五级飓风“洛伦佐”(13L.Lorenzo) - 掠过亚速尔群岛 - NHC:140KT

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发表于 2019-9-22 12:23 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-10-9 11:43 编辑

90L INVEST 190922 0000 10.5N 15.5W ATL 20 1010

20190922.0400.msg-4.ir.90L.INVEST.20kts.1010mb.10.5N.15.5W.100pc.jpg

two_atl_2d2.png
two_atl_5d2.png

2. A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
overnight and on Sunday.  Environmental conditions are conducive
for development of the wave once it moves over water, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form during
the early or middle part of next week while moving westward to
west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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发表于 2019-9-22 13:48 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:70%/90%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-22 13:53 编辑

2. A strong tropical wave along the west coast of Africa is already
producing thunderstorm activity that is showing some signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form on Monday or Tuesday while it moves westward to west-
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_atl_2d2.png
two_atl_5d2.png
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发表于 2019-9-22 19:18 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:90%/90%

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-22 19:20 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles south of Bermuda.  The
National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on newly
formed Tropical Storm Karen located near the southern Windward
Islands.

1. Satellite images show that the thunderstorm activity associated
with a strong tropical wave that has moved off the west coast of
Africa this morning is quickly becoming better organized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later
today or tonight while the system moves generally westward over the
eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in the Cabo
Verde Island should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring locally
heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the southern Cabo
Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
two_atl_2d1.png
two_atl_5d1.png
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Karen are issued under WMO
header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Karen are issued under
WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.

Forecaster Brown
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发表于 2019-9-22 20:32 | 显示全部楼层

FWC-N:TCFA

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-22 20:55 编辑

WTNT23 KNGU 220600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.5N 16.5W TO 11.4N 24.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 16.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED
TO MERGE OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATERS AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC AT 15 TO 20 KT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 230600Z.//
al9019.gif
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发表于 2019-9-23 07:54 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 9914dan 于 2019-9-23 16:10 编辑

NHC:维持90/90%
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jerry, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
Bermuda, and on Tropical Storm Karen, located over the eastern
Caribbean Sea.

1. Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms continue
to become better organized in association with a low pressure
system located over the far eastern Atlantic a few hundred
miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Continued development
of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm is expected to form tonight or on Monday while the disturbance
moves generally westward over the eastern tropical Atlantic at 15 to
20 mph. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.  Regardless of development, this
system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to
portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands as it passes to the
south of the area on Monday and early Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
20190922.2330.goes-16.ir.90L.INVEST.30kts.1008mb.11N.18.7W.100pc.jpg
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发表于 2019-9-23 10:00 | 显示全部楼层
NHC编号13L
AL, 13, 2019092300,   , BEST,   0, 108N,  202W,  30, 1007, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  100,  90,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 027, TRANSITIONED, alB02019 to al132019,
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发表于 2019-9-23 10:45 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-23 12:12 编辑

WTNT43 KNHC 230244
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Satellite imagery and partial scatterometer overpasses indicate
that the tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic has
developed enough circulation and organized convection to be
designated a tropical depression.  The convection is currently
organized into a large band over the western semicircle, with an
additional smaller band to the southeast.  The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt in best agreement with a satellite intensity estimate
from TAFB.

The initial motion is 270/14.  A strong deep-layer ridge to the
north of the depression should steer it generally westward to
west-northwestward for the next 3-4 days, with the center passing
well to the south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Near
the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to turn
northwestward as it approaches a weakness in the ridge.  The track
guidance is tightly clustered, and the forecast track is in best
agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model.

The cyclone is forecast to be in a light to moderate easterly shear
environment over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 3-4
days, and there are no obvious negative factors to prevent
strengthening.  The intensity forecast thus calls for steady
intensification through 96 h, with the intensity forecast lying near
the upper edge of the guidance from 48-96 h.  Some southwesterly
shear may develop near 120 h, so the forecast show little change in
strength from 96-120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 10.8N  20.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  23/1200Z 10.8N  23.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  24/0000Z 11.1N  25.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  24/1200Z 11.8N  28.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  25/0000Z 12.6N  31.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  26/0000Z 13.8N  36.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  27/0000Z 15.5N  41.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 19.0N  45.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
097D4F1C-005B-4899-9919-52D1A26CACC8.png
791B86B2-83EB-4DEF-8B8C-19D38045BFDE.gif
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发表于 2019-9-23 16:55 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-23 19:40 编辑

WTNT43 KNHC 230852
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Infrared and passive microwave satellite imagery indicate that the
depression is gradually getting better organized, with upper-level
outflow improving in all quadrants. However, the low-level and
mid-level circulations do not appear to be vertically aligned quite
yet, with the mid-level center displaced a little to the west of the
low-level center. As a result, the intensity has been maintained at
30 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is 270/13 kt.  A strong deep-layer ridge to the
north of the cyclone is expected to steer the system generally
westward to west-northwestward for the next 72 hours or so,
resulting in the center passing well to the south and southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. On days 4 and 5, a motion
toward the northwest is expected as the cyclone begins to move into
a weakness in the ridge. The new track guidance remains tightly
clustered about the previous forecast track, so no significant
changes were required.

The cyclone is forecast to remain in light vertical shear conditions
throughout the 5-day period. That favorable upper-level flow regime
will combine with SSTs near 29 deg C and a moist mid-level
environment to allow the cyclone to steadily strengthen into a
hurricane by Tuesday and be near major hurricane strength by day 4.
The new NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous
advisory and closely follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0900Z 10.8N  22.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  23/1800Z 11.0N  24.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  24/0600Z 11.5N  26.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  24/1800Z 12.1N  29.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
48H  25/0600Z 12.8N  32.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
72H  26/0600Z 14.0N  37.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
96H  27/0600Z 16.3N  42.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 19.6N  45.7W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
111909_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
al132019.20190923093535.gif
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发表于 2019-9-23 16:56 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-9-23 17:18 编辑

取决于今年副高的位置,今年大多数北大的都是北上为主,基本没有进加勒比海,即使采取加勒比海会有更多发展机会。
未来北上,目前NHC09Z预测封顶强度95,将止步于MH门槛(来看看会不会打脸)。确实北大只有西进才有更多机会,但是背景不允许这么做。
natl.png
RE_20190923_084022.png
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发表于 2019-9-24 01:22 | 显示全部楼层
000
WTNT43 KNHC 231446
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Yet another tropical storm has formed over the Atlantic, this one
over the far eastern portion of the basin. The system has been
designated as Tropical Storm Lorenzo based on satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, all of which support
tropical-storm strength. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, but
its possible this is somewhat conservative since the TAFB
classification was a little higher.

Recent GMI microwave imagery and ASCAT-C data showed that the
low-level center of Lorenzo is on the north side of most of its deep
convection. While this disorganized structure may limit how quickly
Lorenzo can strengthen in the short-term, the tropical storm is
located within a generally favorable environment for
intensification. All of the intensity guidance shows Lorenzo
becoming a hurricane, but the timing varies from model to model. The
official forecast follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and shows
Lorenzo reaching hurricane status within 48 h. Continued
strengthening is forecast thereafter. No noteworthy changes were
made to the NHC intensity forecast.

The ASCAT and microwave data were very helpful in determining the
location of Lorenzo's center and its forward speed. The cyclone
has accelerated and the initial motion estimate is now 275/15 kt.
Very little adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast. Lorenzo
is still forecast to be steered generally westward to
west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge centered over
the eastern Atlantic. The cyclone will pass well south and southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands through tonight. A turn toward the
northwest is forecast in about 4 days as Lorenzo reaches a break in
the ridge. Just like the intensity forecast, the track forecast is
based heavily on HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 11.1N  24.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  24/0000Z 11.5N  26.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  24/1200Z 12.0N  28.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  25/0000Z 12.5N  31.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  25/1200Z 13.1N  34.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  26/1200Z 14.6N  39.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  27/1200Z 17.1N  43.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 20.5N  47.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
144724_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
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