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[2019] 北大西洋中部五级飓风“洛伦佐”(13L.Lorenzo) - 掠过亚速尔群岛 - NHC:140KT

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发表于 2019-9-24 01:22 | 显示全部楼层
000
WTNT43 KNHC 231446
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Yet another tropical storm has formed over the Atlantic, this one
over the far eastern portion of the basin. The system has been
designated as Tropical Storm Lorenzo based on satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, all of which support
tropical-storm strength. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, but
its possible this is somewhat conservative since the TAFB
classification was a little higher.

Recent GMI microwave imagery and ASCAT-C data showed that the
low-level center of Lorenzo is on the north side of most of its deep
convection. While this disorganized structure may limit how quickly
Lorenzo can strengthen in the short-term, the tropical storm is
located within a generally favorable environment for
intensification. All of the intensity guidance shows Lorenzo
becoming a hurricane, but the timing varies from model to model. The
official forecast follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and shows
Lorenzo reaching hurricane status within 48 h. Continued
strengthening is forecast thereafter. No noteworthy changes were
made to the NHC intensity forecast.

The ASCAT and microwave data were very helpful in determining the
location of Lorenzo's center and its forward speed. The cyclone
has accelerated and the initial motion estimate is now 275/15 kt.
Very little adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast. Lorenzo
is still forecast to be steered generally westward to
west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge centered over
the eastern Atlantic. The cyclone will pass well south and southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands through tonight. A turn toward the
northwest is forecast in about 4 days as Lorenzo reaches a break in
the ridge. Just like the intensity forecast, the track forecast is
based heavily on HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 11.1N  24.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  24/0000Z 11.5N  26.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
24H  24/1200Z 12.0N  28.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
36H  25/0000Z 12.5N  31.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
48H  25/1200Z 13.1N  34.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  26/1200Z 14.6N  39.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  27/1200Z 17.1N  43.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  28/1200Z 20.5N  47.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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发表于 2019-9-24 05:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-24 07:05 编辑

WTNT43 KNHC 232033
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Lorenzo is steadily getting better organized. Visible imagery before
sunset showed that the tropical storm has developed extensive
banding that wraps about 3/4 of the way around the circulation. An
1836 SSMIS overpass also shows this banding, but indicated that the
tropical storm has not developed a tight inner core. Satellite
intensity estimates range from 35 to 47 kt, and the intensity of the
system has been increased to 40 kt.

All indications are that Lorenzo is in a favorable environment for
strengthening, and all of the guidance continues to forecast that it
will become a hurricane during the next few days, perhaps as soon as
tomorrow. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a
45 percent chance of a 25 kt or greater increase in Lorenzo's winds
during the next 24 hours.  Since the tropical storm doesn't have a
tight inner-core yet, the NHC forecast isn't quite as bullish, but
still shows steady strengthening, and Lorenzo could become a major
hurricane later this week.

The tropical storm is moving steadily westward with an initial
motion of 275/14. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an
update of the previous one, and no substantial changes were made.
Lorenzo will likely move generally westward to west-northwestward at
a similar forward speed for the next few days, before turning
northwestward over the weekend. The global models are in very good
agreement on this scenario, but do differ on how soon Lorenzo will
turn northwestward. The NHC forecast is based primarily on HCCA, and
is on the left side of the guidance envelope. This is also closer to
the ECMWF and UKMET forecasts which delay the start of Lorenzo's
recurvature a little more than the GFS and its derived models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 11.3N  25.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
12H  24/0600Z 11.7N  27.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
24H  24/1800Z 12.4N  30.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
36H  25/0600Z 13.1N  33.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
48H  25/1800Z 13.6N  35.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  26/1800Z 15.4N  40.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
96H  27/1800Z 18.3N  43.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 21.5N  46.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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发表于 2019-9-24 11:04 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-24 12:37 编辑

740
WTNT43 KNHC 240237
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Infrared satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that
convection and banding has been on the increase this evening very
near the the center of Lorenzo, while the existing bands that
extend well away from the center have been growing in size.
This improving organization supports raising the initial intensity
to 45 kt, and this is in agreement with the latest subjective Dvorak
estimates from both TAFB and SAB. A recent ASCAT-C overpass
sampled tropical-storm-force winds that now extend up to 80 n
mi in the northern semicircle and suggested that the initial wind
speed could be a little conservative.

Lorenzo will be in an environment favorable for intensification for
the next several days.  And, given the recent increase in convection
near the storm's center, there is now greater confidence that
Lorenzo could become a hurricane by late tomorrow. If the near-term
forecast trend verifies, then it will raise confidence that
Lorenzo may become a major hurricane in the medium range. Only at
the very end of the forecast period does it appear that the system
will begin to encounter increasing shear and some drier air, which
should limit any further strengthening. The official NHC wind speed
prediction shows intensification a little faster than the last
forecast through the first couple of days, but is near the previous
advisory thereafter. This forecast is very close to the HFIP
corrected-consensus HCCA.

Lorenzo is moving westward at 13 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to
the north of the cyclone will steer it generally westward to
west-northwestward over the next few days. Late in the forecast
period, a break in the ridge is forecast to develop between 40-45W,
which should cause Lorenzo to turn to the northwest. The official
NHC forecast is very close to the previous one, and near the
tightly clustered consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 11.6N  26.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
12H  24/1200Z 12.1N  28.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
24H  25/0000Z 12.8N  31.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
36H  25/1200Z 13.4N  34.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  26/0000Z 14.0N  37.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  27/0000Z 16.1N  41.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
96H  28/0000Z 19.0N  44.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 22.0N  46.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto
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发表于 2019-9-24 12:36 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:吕爱民  签发:梁 健   2019 年  09 月  24 日  10 时
“基科”将向西北方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(24日)上午8点钟(北京时,下同)位于夏威夷希洛(HILO HAWAII)偏东方向约1950公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬16.6度、西经137.2度,中心附近最大风力有10级(25米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1000百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小10-15公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度先加强后减弱。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月24日08时00分)

“杰里”将向北偏西方向移动

北大西洋热带风暴“杰里”(JERRY)的中心今天(24日)上午8点钟位于百慕大(BERMUDA)西南方向约530公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬28.7度、西经68.3度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为991百帕。

预计,“杰里”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向北偏西方向移动,强度将逐渐减弱。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月24日08时00分)

“卡伦”减弱为热带低压

北大西洋热带风暴“卡伦”(KAREN)已于今天(24日)凌晨减弱为热带低压,上午8点钟其中心位于波多黎各圣胡安(SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO)偏南方向约290公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬15.8度、西经65.7度,中心附近最大风力有7级(15米/秒,相当于我国的热带低压级),中心最低气压为1008百帕。

预计,“卡伦”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度继续减弱。

(这是关于“卡伦”的最后一期监测公报)

北大西洋热带风暴“洛伦佐”生成

北大西洋热带风暴“洛伦佐”(LORENZO)已于昨天(23日)晚上生成,今天(24日)上午8点钟其中心位于佛得角群岛最南端(THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS)西南方向约435公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬11.4度、西经26.2度,中心附近最大风力有8级(20米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1002百帕。

预计,“杰里”将以每小时25公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动,强度将逐渐加强。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190924020002400_XML_3.png
(北京时间2019年9月24日08时00分)
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发表于 2019-9-24 16:56 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-24 22:31 编辑

WTNT43 KNHC 240855
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with
Lorenzo continues to become better organized, with many curved
bands and a newly formed central dense overcast.  In fact, an
overnight AMSR2 microwave pass showed that Lorenzo already had a
very small central core.  The initial wind speed is raised to 55 kt,
in accordance with the latest TAFB classification.

Conditions seem to be ripe for further intensification given that
the storm is over fairly warm waters, with humid mid-level air, and
weak/moderate shear.  The SHIPS Rapid Intensification index is
giving a 53 percent chance of Lorenzo intensifying 25 kt during the
next 24 hours, which seems very reasonable since it now has a tight
inner core, and after noting the storm just strengthened 25 kt
during the previous 24 hours.  Thus the intensity forecast is raised
from the last one, showing the initial period of very quick
strengthening, and is at the upper edge of the guidance.  It is
worth noting that all of the global models show Lorenzo becoming a
fairly large and powerful hurricane within the next 5 days, and the
new wind radii forecast reflects this likelihood.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. This general
course is expected for the next couple of days while Lorenzo moves
beneath the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge.  A break in the
ridge should occur in a few days over the central Atlantic, causing
the tropical cyclone to turn northwestward and north-northwestward
over the weekend. The new forecast is shifted slightly northward
in the short term, but is close to the previous NHC prediction
thereafter, closest to the corrected-consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 12.0N  28.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  24/1800Z 12.6N  30.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  25/0600Z 13.3N  32.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
36H  25/1800Z 13.9N  35.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  26/0600Z 14.4N  38.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  27/0600Z 17.0N  41.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  28/0600Z 20.0N  44.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 23.0N  46.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake
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发表于 2019-9-24 17:20 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-9-24 17:26 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:吕爱民  签发:梁健   2019 年  09 月  24 日  18 时
“基科”将向西北方向移动
东北太平洋热带风暴“基科”(KIKO)的中心今天(24日)下午2点钟(北京时,下同)位于夏威夷希洛(HILO HAWAII)偏东方向约1800公里的东北太平洋洋面上,就是北纬17.2度、西经137.8度,中心附近最大风力有9级(23米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为1002百帕。

预计,“基科”将以每小15-20公里的速度向西北方向移动,强度将逐渐减弱。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月24日14时00分)

“杰里”将向偏北方向移动

北大西洋热带风暴“杰里”(JERRY)的中心今天(24日)下午2点钟位于百慕大(BERMUDA)西南方向约465公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬29.5度、西经68.4度,中心附近最大风力有10级(25米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为993百帕。

预计,“杰里”将以每小时10公里左右的速度向偏北方向移动,强度将逐渐减弱。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2019年9月24日14时00分)

“洛伦佐”将向偏西方向移动

北大西洋热带风暴“洛伦佐”(LORENZO)的中心今天(24日)下午2点钟位于佛得角群岛最南端(THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS)西南方向约460公里的北大西洋洋面上,就是北纬11.8度、西经27.3度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为998百帕。

预计,“杰里”将以每小时25公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动,强度将逐渐加强。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20190924100002400_XML_3.gif
(北京时间2019年9月24日14时00分)
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发表于 2019-9-25 02:05 | 显示全部楼层
000
WTNT43 KNHC 241436
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Lorenzo's structure has not changed much during the morning.  A
small central dense overcast continues over the center with
multiple curved bands within the circulation.  A recent ASCAT pass
showed winds just over 45 kt to the north of the center, but given
sampling considerations, the initial intensity remains 55 kt, which
matches Dvorak classifications provided by TAFB and SAB.

Despite the brief interruption in the strengthening trend,
sufficiently warm waters, low shear, and an ambient moist air mass
should foster intensification during the next several days.
Because Lorenzo has not strengthened further since the previous
advisory, the persistence factor has caused the Rapid
Intensification (RI) Index (a 25-kt increase in 24 hours) to drop
from 53 percent to 23 percent.  In addition, the overall guidance
envelope is showing slightly lower peak intensities in 3-4 days.
The NHC intensity forecast remains near the upper edge of the
guidance for much of the forecast period, lying closest to the HWRF
and the Florida State Superensemble.  RI is still a possibility, but
as of yet we have not observed a low-level cyan ring in 37-GHz
microwave imagery, which is usually a harbinger of an RI episode.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 285/14 kt.
Lorenzo is located to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends
from Morocco and Madeira Island westward to 40W.  Ridging is
relatively non-existent west of 40W due to a mid-/upper-level low
over the central Atlantic and Tropical Storm Jerry over the western
Atlantic.  With this pattern in place, Lorenzo is expected begin
recurving around the ridge axis over the central Atlantic on days
3-5.  During that period, the track guidance envelope is bracketed
by the easternmost GFS and westernmost ECMWF models, which are
about 350 nm apart on day 5.  This spread isn't too significant,
and the updated NHC track forecast is only shifted slightly
eastward from the previous one, very close to the two corrected
consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 12.4N  29.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  25/0000Z 12.9N  31.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  25/1200Z 13.6N  34.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  26/0000Z 14.2N  36.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  26/1200Z 15.0N  38.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  27/1200Z 18.0N  41.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  28/1200Z 21.1N  44.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 23.9N  45.3W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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发表于 2019-9-25 05:08 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-9-25 05:43 编辑

WTNT43 KNHC 242048
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Based on recent microwave imagery and visible satellite loops, it
appears that there's been just enough westerly shear over Lorenzo
to disrupt the inner core and keep the storm from strengthening
through the day.  The CDO is slightly offset from the low-level
center, and prominent convective banding is mostly within the
southeastern semicircle.  Subjective intensity estimates remain
T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and objective numbers have come up
slightly to around 60 kt.  However, since the morning scatterometer
data was running about 10 kt lower than the satellite estimates,
and the overall structure has not changed appreciably, the initial
intensity will remain 55 kt.

A mid-level high centered west of Madeira and the Canary Islands
continues to drive Lorenzo quickly westward, or 285/15 kt.  There
has been no change to the track forecast thinking.  A break in the
ridge over the central Atlantic is expected to cause Lorenzo to
begin recurving in about 48 hours, with the system ultimately
moving northward by the end of the foreast period.  The updated NHC
forecast has only been nudged westward, but this is mainly due to
the slightly faster initial forward motion.  Otherwise, the spread
in the guidance is still bounded by the GFS on the right and the
ECMWF on the left, which is mirrored by those models' respective
ensemble members.  The official forecast hedges toward the western
side of the guidance, roughly between the HCCA model and the other
consensus aids.

Global model guidance suggests that the westerly shear over Lorenzo
should abate during the next 24 hours, allowing another
intensification phase to begin.  Whether or not rapid
intensification occurs is difficult to know at this point until it
becomes clearer if the cyclone can develop a well-defined inner
core.  The intensity guidance has decreased further on this cycle,
but this is largely due to the hiatus in the strengthening trend
during the day.  There's still plenty of time for more
strengthening to occur, so out of an abundance of caution, I did
not lower the forecast peak intensities that have been shown in the
previous few advisories.  As such, the official forecast lies above
nearly all the guidance during the first 2-3 days, and then is
close to the HWRF and HCCA on days 4 and 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 12.8N  31.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
12H  25/0600Z 13.2N  33.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
24H  25/1800Z 13.8N  35.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  26/0600Z 14.5N  38.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  26/1800Z 15.6N  40.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
72H  27/1800Z 18.8N  42.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  28/1800Z 21.9N  45.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  29/1800Z 24.9N  45.3W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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发表于 2019-9-25 10:41 | 显示全部楼层
WTNT43 KNHC 250236
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Over the past several hours, deep convection has increased in
coverage and intensity near Lorenzo's center, with cloud tops now as
cold as -85 degrees Celsius. Some modest northwesterly shear
impacted the cyclone starting early today and lasted through this
evening, but now Lorenzo seems to be overcoming the shear. The
initial intensity has been increased to 60 kt and this is a blend of
the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Recent
scatterometer passes show that the wind radii have continued to
expand, with tropical storm force winds now reaching up to 180 n mi
from the center.

Lorenzo is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt to the south of a
mid-level ridge. A break in the ridge is forecast to develop between
40-50W in a few days, which should cause the cyclone to turn to the
northwest. By late in the forecast period, Lorenzo will turn to the
north as it rounds the western periphery of the ridge. This forecast
track scenario is in very good agreement with the numerical models,
and little change was made from the previous official forecast.

The shear that has been occurring over Lorenzo is expected to
decrease through Wednesday, and based on the current convective
trend, strengthening appears likely over the next couple of days.
Dynamical and statistical models are in good agreement on bringing
Lorenzo to hurricane intensity by Wednesday morning, and then
continuing some gradual strengthening through 72 hours. After that
time, the dynamical model intensity forecasts diverge from the
statistical model forecasts. SHIPS and LGEM suggest that Lorenzo
will reach its peak intensity in about 3 or 4 days, and weakening is
possible by day 5. The dynamical models disagree with this scenario,
and the consensus of those models makes Lorenzo a major hurricane in
about 72 hours, with additional strengthening possible through the
end of the forecast period. The official forecast is more in line
with the dynamical guidance, although it is not as high as some of
those solutions late in the period. Due to the divergence in model
intensity forecasts beyond 72 hours, the confidence in the official
forecast at that time is not high.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0300Z 13.2N  32.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
12H  25/1200Z 13.6N  34.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  26/0000Z 14.2N  37.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
36H  26/1200Z 15.1N  39.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  27/0000Z 16.4N  40.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
72H  28/0000Z 19.9N  43.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
96H  29/0000Z 23.0N  45.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 26.0N  45.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-10-9 19:30 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 9914dan 于 2019-10-9 19:32 编辑

飓风13L贴吧讨论:https://tieba.baidu.com/p/6268316407

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Deep convection has continued to increase in coverage and intensity
near the center of Lorenzo during the past several hours. There have
been no good microwave passes over the cyclone since yesterday,
however, a partial SSMIS pass showed hints that a mid-level eye is
forming. The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt based on
a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB,
and objective estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON. Lorenzo is
the 5th hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The SHIPS and DTOPS rapid intensification probability models both
show that there is a greater than 50 percent chance that Lorenzo
will strengthen by 25 kt or more during the next 24 hours. The large
size of the cyclone appears to be the only obvious inhibiting factor
to rapid intensification since the environment is otherwise quite
favorable for continued strengthening. The NHC forecast now shows
Lorenzo becoming a major hurricane in 36 hours, faster than
previously anticipated. By 72 h and beyond, most of the guidance
keeps Lorenzo in a nearly steady state. In reality, most strong
hurricanes have some short-term fluctuations in intensity, but such
fluctuations are nearly impossible to forecast this far out in time.
Regardless of its exact intensity, confidence is high that Lorenzo
will be a large and powerful hurricane over the eastern and central
Atlantic through the rest of this week.

No changes of significance were made to the track forecast. Lorenzo
is still forecast to move west-northwestward for the next day or so,
before turning northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical
ridge. A turn toward the north is anticipated by the end of the
forecast period. The models are still in fairly good agreement on
the track of the hurricane, and the NHC forecast is between the
consensus aids HCCA and TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/0900Z 13.6N  33.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  25/1800Z 14.0N  36.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
24H  26/0600Z 14.7N  38.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  26/1800Z 15.9N  40.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
48H  27/0600Z 17.5N  41.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
72H  28/0600Z 21.1N  44.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  29/0600Z 24.0N  45.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 27.4N  43.5W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos
2019AL13_4KMIRIMG_201909250900.gif
20190925.0900.goes-16.ir.13L.LORENZO.70kts.993mb.13.4N.33.2W.100pc.jpg
Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lorenzo continues to
become better organized, with a small central convective feature
surrounded by a large complex of outer bands in all quadrants
except the northwest, where some dry air may be entraining.
Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMMS
satellite consensus technique have increased to near 75 kt, and that
will be the initial intensity for this advisory.  The hurricane
currently has good cirrus outflow in all directions.

The initial motion is 285/15.  The subtropical ridge to the north
and northeast of Lorenzo should steer the hurricane west-
northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the
northwest as a break develops in the ridge between 45W-50W.  Lorenzo
is subsequently forecast to turn northward into the break by 96 h
and recurve into the westerlies around 120 h.  While the guidance
agrees with this scenario, there is some spread on the longitude of
the recurvature between the easternmost GFS model and the
westernmost ECMWF model.  The new forecast lies between these models
in best overall agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus
guidance.

Lorenzo should remain over warm water and in a light shear
environment during the next three days, with the only negative
factor for intensification being episodic intrusions of dry air.
The intensity guidance forecasts continued steady strengthening,
with rapid strengthening possible during the first 24-36 h.  The
new intensity forecast is increased from the previous forecast, and
for the first 36-48 h it lies near the upper edge of the intensity
guidance.  The intensity forecast shows little change in strength
between 36-72 h, although some fluctuations in intensity are likely
due to eyewall replacement cycles during this time.  After 72 h,
Lorenzo is likely to encounter some southwesterly shear, and thus
some weakening is forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 14.1N  35.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  26/0000Z 14.4N  37.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
24H  26/1200Z 15.3N  39.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
36H  27/0000Z 16.7N  40.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  27/1200Z 18.4N  42.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  28/1200Z 21.9N  44.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
96H  29/1200Z 25.0N  44.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 29.0N  42.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
20190925.1500.goes-16.ir.13L.LORENZO.75kts.983mb.13.8N.34.5W.100pc.jpg
Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lorenzo continues to
become better organized, with the central dense overcast getting
larger while a large complex of outer bands continues in the
southeastern semicircle.  In addition, a AMSR-2 overpass near 1530
UTC suggested there is at least a partial eyewall or convective ring
near the center.  The initial intensity is increased to 80 kt in
best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus intensity
estimate. The hurricane still shows good cirrus outflow in all
directions, and it still appears some dry air is entraining into the
system in the northwestern quadrant.

The initial motion is now 285/16.  There is no change to the track
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory.  The subtropical
ridge to the north and northeast of Lorenzo should steer the
hurricane west-northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a
turn toward the northwest as a break develops in the ridge between
45W-50W.  Lorenzo is subsequently forecast to turn northward into
the break by 96 h and recurve into the westerlies around 120 h.
Since the last advisory, the track guidance has shifted a little to
the right after 36 h.  The new forecast track is similar to the
previous track, but after 36 h it now lies a little to the left of
the center of the guidance envelope.

Lorenzo should remain over warm water and in a light shear
environment during the next three days, with the only negative
factor for intensification being episodic intrusions of dry air.
The intensity guidance forecasts continued steady strengthening for
the next 36 h or so, but the the chances of rapid intensification
in the various statistical indices have gone down since the previous
advisory.  The new intensity forecast will call for 36 more hours
of intensification, and it continues to lie near the upper edge of
the intensity guidance.  The intensity forecast follows the general
trend of the guidance in showing little change in strength between
36-96 h, although fluctuations in intensity are likely due to
eyewall replacement cycles during this time. After that time,
Lorenzo is likely to encounter southwesterly shear, and thus some
weakening is forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/2100Z 14.5N  36.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
12H  26/0600Z 15.0N  38.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  26/1800Z 16.1N  40.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  27/0600Z 17.7N  41.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  27/1800Z 19.5N  43.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  28/1800Z 23.0N  44.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  29/1800Z 26.5N  43.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 31.0N  40.5W  100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
20190925.2100.goes-16.ir.13L.LORENZO.80kts.978mb.14.3N.36.3W.100pc.jpg
Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

A small eye has been intermittently appearing in infrared satellite
imagery over the past few hours, and a recent WINDSAT microwave
overpass showed that the inner-core of Lorenzo is trying to
consolidate. There is still some dry air wrapping in toward the
center of circulation as seen in an SSMIS overpass at 2020 UTC. This
could be the reason why the hurricane has not been able to develop a
well-defined eye as of yet. An ASCAT-B scatterometer pass this
evening showed a still expanding wind field associated with Lorenzo,
and the 50-kt winds now extend up to 90 n mi from the center in the
northern semicircle. A blend of the subjective intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB support the initial intensity of 85 kt for this
advisory.

Based on the improving inner-core structure, large central dense
overcast, and an expanding cirrus shield around the hurricane, it is
believed that the dry air that has been entrained near the center
will mix out soon. This should allow for the eyewall to completely
develop and Lorenzo should reach major hurricane intensity within
the next 24 hours. Lorenzo will continue over warm waters and in a
light shear environment during the next couple of days, which should
allow for some additional strengthening. By 72 hours, increasing
shear due to west to southwest winds aloft ahead of an approaching
mid-latitude trough should begin to weaken the hurricane. The
official intensity forecast is very near the previous one, and is on
the high end of the guidance through 72 hours.

Lorenzo is moving west-northwest at 13 kt to the south of a
mid-level ridge. The model guidance is in very good agreement on a
break developing in the ridge between 45W-50W in the next couple of
days, which should result in a turn to the northwest. From day 3-5,
the cyclone is expected to turn north then northeast around the
periphery of the mid-level ridge to its east. The official forecast
was nudged just a little to the right of the previous one starting
at 36 h and is on the left side of tightly clustered consensus
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 14.7N  38.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
12H  26/1200Z 15.2N  39.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  27/0000Z 16.8N  41.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
36H  27/1200Z 18.5N  42.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
48H  28/0000Z 20.4N  43.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
72H  29/0000Z 23.8N  43.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
96H  30/0000Z 27.5N  42.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
120H  01/0000Z 31.9N  39.1W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto
20190926.0051.gpm.89pct89h89v.13L.LORENZO.85kts.974mb.14.5N.37.6W.055pc.jpg
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20190926.0300.goes-16.ir.13L.LORENZO.85kts.974mb.14.5N.37.6W.100pc.jpg
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