1920号强台风“浣熊”(21W.Neoguri) - 槽前爆发，发展远超预期 - JTWC:95KT

三旋共舞 · 发表于 2019-10-15 10:01

本帖最后由颱風巨爵于 2019-10-21 15:15 编辑

96W INVEST 191015 0000 16.0N 136.0E WPAC 15 0

20191014.0636.f15.37h.96W.INVEST.15kts.999mb.16N.136E.040pc..jpg

qaswedhk · 发表于 2019-10-15 10:04

本帖最后由红豆棒冰冰于 2019-10-15 13:48 编辑

炎煌深沉 · 发表于 2019-10-15 10:32

本帖最后由炎煌深沉于 2019-10-15 10:35 编辑

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 16N 136E WNW SLOWLY.

炎煌深沉 · 发表于 2019-10-15 14:08

本帖最后由炎煌深沉于 2019-10-15 14:10 编辑

ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZOCT2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
16.1N 135.3E, APPROXIMATELY 837 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 150435Z ATMS
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING BROAD LLCC WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD LUZON WITH SLOW
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

1007圆规 · 发表于 2019-10-15 16:57

本帖最后由 1007圆规于 2019-10-15 17:02 编辑

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 16N 135E WNW 10 KT.

禾愛糖 · 发表于 2019-10-15 18:51

本帖最后由禾愛糖于 2019-10-15 18:52 编辑

GFS預料這貨能達到TS
比較好奇想知道這貨能否進入南海
這種東風波的擾動增強速度會比較快

炎煌深沉 · 发表于 2019-10-15 21:00

TPPN10 PGTW 151242
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (E OF LUZON)
B. 15/1200Z
C. 16.29N
D. 134.74E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

MARTIN
20191015.1200.himawari-8.ir.96W.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.16.3N.134.9E.100pc.jpg

20191015.1200.himawari-8.ir.96W.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.16.3N.134.9E.100pc.jpg

20191015.1200.himawari-8.irbd.96W.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.16.3N.134.9E.100pc.jpg

kelvinho726 · 发表于 2019-10-15 21:39

EC及GFS均報出有發展但到呂宋海峽附近就消散 .. 不知會否改呢

灿都2010 · 发表于 2019-10-15 22:15

今年南海怎么了，南海西行台风没有一个脱水的

tcfa_gw · 发表于 2019-10-16 04:55

本帖最后由 tcfa_gw 于 2019-10-16 05:03 编辑

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 16.8N 133.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WNW 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

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[2019] 1920号强台风“浣熊”(21W.Neoguri) - 槽前爆发，发展远超预期 - JTWC:95KT

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