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[2019] 阿拉伯海超级气旋风暴“齐亚尔”(ARB 03/04A.Kyarr) - IMD:135KT JTWC:130KT

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发表于 2019-10-17 13:54 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 327 于 2019-11-11 09:00 编辑

97A INVEST 191017 0600 10.0N 70.0E IO 15 1010

20191017.0530.msg-1.ir.97A.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.10N.70E.100pc.jpg

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参与人数 2金钱 +3 威望 +13 收起 理由
颱風巨爵 + 10 超级气旋风暴
红豆棒冰冰 + 3 + 3 97A

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发表于 2019-10-19 06:25 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:LOW

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-10-19 06:28 编辑

ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/181800Z-191800ZOCT2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.2N 68.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 812 NM SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF
CONVECTION WITH NO DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. A PARTIAL 181546Z
METOPA-A 89GHZ IMAGE FURTHER DEPICTS POCKETS OF WEAK CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE 12Z BEST TRACK POSITION. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD, DIFFLUENT, SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS,
COUPLED WITH MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS) DEPICT A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 97A WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS
WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, HOWEVER THE WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME.
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
abiosair.jpg
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发表于 2019-10-20 23:44 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:REMAINS LOW

ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZOCT2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.2N
68.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 66.7E, APPROXIMATELY 665 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL TURNING. A 191640Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE
FURTHER DEPICTS SMALL POCKETS OF WEAK, CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE 12Z BEST TRACK POSITION. A 190532Z ASCAT-B IMAGE
ILLUSTRATES A BROAD, WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF 5-10 KNOT WINDS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONTINUED BROAD, DIFFLUENT, SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) AND WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED TRACK TO THE WEST
THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER THIS TIME, MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE, ALTHOUGH WIND
FIELDS REMAIN LOW (< 25 KNOTS) THROUGH TAU 48 IN ALL MODELS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

ABIO10 PGTW 191800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN CORRECTED/191800Z-201800ZOCT2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2N 68.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 66.7E, APPROXIMATELY 665
NM SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL TURNING. A 191640Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE
FURTHER DEPICTS SMALL POCKETS OF WEAK, CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE 12Z BEST TRACK POSITION. A 190532Z ASCAT-B IMAGE
ILLUSTRATES A BROAD, WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF 5-10 KNOT WINDS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES CONTINUED BROAD, DIFFLUENT, SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS) AND WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED TRACK TO THE WEST
THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER THIS TIME, MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE, ALTHOUGH WIND
FIELDS REMAIN LOW (< 25 KNOTS) THROUGH TAU 48 IN ALL MODELS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED INVEST NUMBER TO PARA 1.B.
(1).
NNNN
abiosair.jpg
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发表于 2019-10-21 15:42 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:REMAINS LOW

ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/201800Z-211800ZOCT2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.5N 66.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 64.6E, APPROXIMATELY 505 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, OMAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED FLARING
CONVECTION AND MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL TURNING. A 201254Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE SHOWS SMALL AREAS OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
12Z BEST TRACK POSITION. ALTHOUGH THE 200512Z ASCAT-B PASS MISSED THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THE WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CURRENT
POSITION INDICATE A VERY BROAD, WEAK CIRCULATION WITH A MAXIMUM OF 20
KNOTS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. ANALYSIS OF THE
CURRENT ENVIRONMENT REVEALS SOUTHERLY, SLIGHTLY DIFFLUENT, FLOW
ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), AND WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM WITH THE
EARLIEST APPEARANCE OF 30 KNOT WINDS BY NAVGEM AT TAU 72. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
abiosair.jpg
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发表于 2019-10-21 16:22 | 显示全部楼层
ECMWF 00Z支持发展,预报强度可观
ecmwf_z500_mslp_india_fh0-240.gif
nio.png
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发表于 2019-10-22 12:26 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:REMAINS LOW

ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZOCT2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.5N 66.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 63.6E, APPROXIMATELY 500
NM SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION AND MINIMAL UPPER
LEVEL TURNING. A 211642Z AMSU 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF MOSTLY 15 KT WINDS DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. ANALYSIS OF
THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT REVEALS DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WITH A POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20
KNOTS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLOW TO DEVELOP
THE BROAD SYSTEM WITH THE EARLIEST APPEARANCE OF 35 KNOT WINDS BY
TAU 72. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg
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发表于 2019-10-23 04:30 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-10-23 04:32 编辑

ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZOCT2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.6N 63.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 69.5E, APPROXIMATELY 537
NM SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AND SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. A 221604Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS PERSISTENT
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT
ENVIRONMENT REVEALS DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT WITH A FORMATIVE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20
KNOTS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD IN
STRUCTURE AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT VARYING TIMELINES OF DEVELOPMENT.
NAVGEM LEADS DEVELOPMENT, REACHING WARNING CRITERIA BY TAU 36 WHILE
ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW SLOWER DEVELOPEMENT TIMELINES OF 72
HOURS AND 120 HOURS RESPECTIVELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
FE966FEE-B283-4BCD-9439-599578C27FB2.jpeg
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发表于 2019-10-24 11:03 | 显示全部楼层

TCFA

本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-10-24 11:41 编辑

WTIO21 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97A)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.6N 72.0E TO 16.0N 66.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 240000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.6N 70.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.8N 70.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 70.5E, APPROXIMATELY 243
NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. A 231659 ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS THIS TIGHTENING LLCC
WITH A LARGE BAND OF 25 KT WINDS SOUTH OF THE LLCC WITH POCKETS OF 30
KT WINDS 140 NM FROM THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY UNDER FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (5-10 KTS). HOWEVER, JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM IS STRONG VWS REACHING 25-30 KTS OVER THE CENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 35
KTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRACK GUIDANCE INITIALLY SLOWLY TRACKS THE
SYSTEM TO THE EAST, HOWEVER ALL MODELS THEN REVERSE THE TRACK BETWEEN
TAUS 24 AND 72 TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE ARABIAN SEA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
250300Z.//
NNNN
io9719.gif 97A_240300sair.jpg
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发表于 2019-10-24 12:40 | 显示全部楼层
ABIO10 PGTW 240400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/240400Z-241800ZOCT2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240351OCT2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.8N 70.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 70.5E, APPROXIMATELY 243
NM SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST. A 231659 ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS THIS TIGHTENING LLCC
WITH A LARGE BAND OF 25 KT WINDS SOUTH OF THE LLCC WITH POCKETS OF 30
KT WINDS 140 NM FROM THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY UNDER FAVORABLE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (5-10 KTS). HOWEVER, JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM IS STRONG VWS REACHING 25-30 KTS OVER THE CENTRAL ARABIAN
SEA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 35
KTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TRACK GUIDANCE INITIALLY SLOWLY TRACKS THE
SYSTEM TO THE EAST, HOWEVER ALL MODELS THEN REVERSE THE TRACK BETWEEN
TAUS 24 AND 72 TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE ARABIAN SEA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 240300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN
99480312-BDA8-4864-976E-8B895861797D.jpeg
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发表于 2019-10-24 16:45 | 显示全部楼层

BULLETIN NO. : 01 (ARB/03/2019)

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-10-24 18:58 编辑

ARB/02/2019(IMD官网BUG)
Dated: 24.10.2019
DEPRESSION HAS FORMED OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA AT 0300 UTC OF 24TH OCTOBER. TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARDS TILL 25TH & RECURVE WESTWARDS THEREAFTER. CLICK

Sub: Depression over eastcentral Arabian Sea
Latest satellite imageries and Ship & Buoy observations indicate that a depression has formed
over eastcentral Arabian Sea and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 24th October, 2019 near
latitude 15.4°N and longitude 70.4°E, about 360 km west-southwest of Ratnagiri (Maharashtra), 490
km southwest of Mumbai (Maharashtra) and 1750 km east-southeast of Salalah (Oman). It is very
likely to intensify further into a deep depression during next 12 hours and into a cyclonic storm during
subsequent 12 hours. It is very likely to move east-northeastwards till 25th October evening. Then it is
very likely to re-curve and move nearly westwards towards south Oman and adjoining Yemen coast
with gradual intensification during subsequent 72 hours.
       
ftrack.png

ARB/02/2019(BUG)
Dated: 24.10.2019
DEPRESSION OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA REMAINED STATIONARY. TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST WARDS TILL 25TH OCTOBER AND RECURVE WESTWARD TOWARDS OMAN COAST THEREAFTER.       

ftrack.png
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