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[2019] 1928号超强台风“北冕”(29W.Kammuri) - 近岸增强,3日凌晨登陆吕宋岛 - JTWC:115KT

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发表于 2019-11-21 06:25 来自手机 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2019-12-6 00:50 编辑

94W INVEST 191120 1800 7.4N 176.5E WPAC 15 0

20191120.2120.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.94WINVEST.15kts-74N-1765E.100pc.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +5 威望 +5 收起 理由
327 + 5 + 5 注:本次版主代劳编辑

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发表于 2019-11-21 07:00 | 显示全部楼层
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ghj说不抢帖会后悔半个月,咕咕咕

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发表于 2019-11-21 07:03 | 显示全部楼层
327 发表于 2019-11-21 07:00
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楼主说编辑不了
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发表于 2019-11-21 07:49 | 显示全部楼层
327 发表于 2019-11-21 07:00
请根据版规编辑帖子标题与首楼等

楼主的等级太低了,压根没有编辑按钮,只能版主编辑
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发表于 2019-11-21 08:00 | 显示全部楼层
王小谦同学/ 发表于 2019-11-21 07:49
楼主的等级太低了,压根没有编辑按钮,只能版主编辑

等级太低会普通编辑权限都没有吗……看了用户组页面没有什么相关内容……
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99W 15kt 1010hpa

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发表于 2019-11-21 16:25 | 显示全部楼层
王小谦同学/ 发表于 2019-11-21 07:49
楼主的等级太低了,压根没有编辑按钮,只能版主编辑

我有啊,同等级
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发表于 2019-11-22 16:19 | 显示全部楼层
ECMWF 00Z预报94W西行至菲东后移速放缓,部分成员上望高强度
ecmwf_z500_mslp_wpac_fh0-240.gif
wpac.png
eastasia.png
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发表于 2019-11-22 16:35 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-11-22 20:39 编辑

94W INVEST 191122 0600 4.6N 169.5E WPAC 15 1004
94W_0600 (2).png
94W_0600.png
94W_0600 (1).png
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发表于 2019-11-23 04:55 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:LOW

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-11-23 05:00 编辑

ABPW10 PGTW 222000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/222000Z-230600ZNOV2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351ZNOV2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22NOV19 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 28W (FUNG-WONG) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 125.3E, APPROXIMATELY 169 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA
AB, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 221500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) IS LOCATED NEAR 4.2N
169.6E, APPROXIMATELY 279 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. A 220724Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE, A 220950Z ASCAT-B PASS SUPPORTS
THE LOCATION OF THIS BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH
(20-25KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 94W WILL
INITIALLY BE ASYMMETRIC WITH STRONGER WINDS TO THE NORTH DUE TO A
TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST. GFS AND NAVGEM DEPICT WINDS FULLY WRAPPING AROUND
THE CIRCULATION BY  TAU 120.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.3S 163.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1S 163.4E, APPROXIMATELY 248
NM NORTHEAST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS. A 220721Z SSMIS 91GHZ
IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 90P IS IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT, COUPLED WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT SLOWLY
TRACKS SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS LOW.
UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN
F3372A5E-27B8-4ECB-B9EB-8CC88BFB0ED7.jpeg
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发表于 2019-11-23 18:57 | 显示全部楼层
请楼主注意,版主编辑好的帖子首楼中报文和云图是编扰时的报文和云图,而不是实时的,不要随意修改
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