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[2019] 索马里以东气旋风暴“帕凡”(ARB 05/06A.Pawan) - 7日上午登陆索马里努加尔州

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发表于 2019-11-29 00:17 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2019-12-9 14:30 编辑

90A INVEST 191128 1200 2.0N 55.0E IO 15 0

20191128.1530.msg4.x.wv1km.90AINVEST.15kts-20N-550E.100pc.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
红豆棒冰冰 + 3 + 3 90A

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发表于 2019-11-29 04:31 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:LOW

ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/281800Z-291800ZNOV2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.6N
56.0E, APPROXIMATELY 646 NM EAST OF MOGADISHU, SOMALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, SUPPORTED BY A 281130Z
85GHZ SSMI SATELLITE IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE AND MARGINAL WESTWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY HIGH (20-30KTS)
LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120, AS THE CIRCULATION MAKES LANDFALL OVER
SOMALIA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.0N 55E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 54.3E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAHE, SEYCHELLES. A 281205Z 91GHZ SSMIS SATELLITE
IMAGE AND ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICT BROAD TURNING OVER A
POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ANALYSES INDICATE A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AND MAY REACH WARNING STATUS BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 96. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
D928A397-0DD9-40C2-8B6B-FC6DBB8D8820.jpeg
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发表于 2019-12-2 07:05 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-12-2 07:15 编辑

ABIO10 PGTW 012230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/012230Z-021800ZDEC2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.5N 57.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 57.0E, APPROXIMATELY 723 NM
NORTHEAST OF MOGADISHU, SOMALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
011714Z 89GHZ MHS IMAGE DEPICT BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING
90A SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. NVGM,
HOWEVER, SHOWS 90A STEADILY INTENSIFYING WHILE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS SOCOTRA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.9N
73.3E, APPROXIMATELY 214 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A DISORGANIZED
CIRCULATION. A 011648 METOP-B PASS SHOWS A WEAK, BUT DEFINED
CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 27-28C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING 91A TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.8S 53.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3S 54.9E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MAHE, SEYCHELLES. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
011826Z 89GHZ MHS IMAGE REVEAL A CONSOLIDATING ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15-25 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD  EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AND GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN 1.B.(2) AND UPGRADED
AREAS IN 1.B.(1) AND 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN
6967122A-2175-4F58-A122-627AAF5FB72E.jpeg
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发表于 2019-12-2 09:07 | 显示全部楼层
90A INVEST 191202 0000 5.1N 56.2E IO 25 1002
升25,不出意外很快就06A
数值看好TD-TS强度 但是肯定没什么大发展
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发表于 2019-12-2 16:16 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:TCFA/UPGRADED TO HIGH

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-12-2 17:30 编辑

WTIO21 PGTW 020900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90A)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 5.6N 57.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 020830Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 57.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.2N 57.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 57.0E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 020210Z WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A BROAD BUT DEFINED LLCC. A
020527Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF
25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SST (28-29C) VALUES.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOW, POSSIBLY QUASI-
STATIONARY, POLEWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030900Z.//
NNNN
io9019.gif
90A_020900sair.jpg
ABIO10 PGTW 020930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/020930Z-021800ZDEC2019//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020851ZDEC2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.2N 57.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 57.0E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE GUARDAFUI, SOMALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FRAGMENTED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 020210Z WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A BROAD BUT DEFINED LLCC. A
020527Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF
25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM SST (28-29C) VALUES.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOW, POSSIBLY QUASI-
STATIONARY, POLEWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A
(WTIO PGTW 020900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.9N 73.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 71.9E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
WEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTION OVER A DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION. A 011648 METOP-B PASS
SHOWS A WEAK, BUT DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 27-
28C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING 91A TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.8S 53.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3S 54.9E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MAHE, SEYCHELLES. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
011826Z 89GHZ MHS IMAGE REVEAL A CONSOLIDATING ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15-25 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS AND GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1) TO
HIGH.//
NNNN
abiosair.jpg
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发表于 2019-12-2 22:01 | 显示全部楼层
IMD即将升低压

VORTEX CENTERED WITHIN HALF A DEG OF 5.5N/56.5E LIES OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN ADJ SW ARSEA (.) INTENSITY 1.5 (.) ASSTD BKN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBDD INT TO V INT CONVTN OVER EQUATORIAL INDIAN OCEAN ADJ SW ARSEA AND BET AREA LAT 4.0N TO 10.0N LONG 52.0E TO 60.0E (MINIMUM CTT MINUS 93 DEG CEL) (.)
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发表于 2019-12-2 23:59 | 显示全部楼层
ARB/05/2019
Dated: 02.12.2019
Depression formed over SW Arabian Sea & adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean. To intensify into a CS and move towards Somalia coast during next 72 hours.
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发表于 2019-12-3 07:53 | 显示全部楼层
2CB96EBE9D03A23C4F6C7FEB0C6C0BBB.png
ASCAT稍早前显示出40kt
那么不出意外快升格06A了
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发表于 2019-12-3 09:20 | 显示全部楼层
IO, 06, 2019120300,   , BEST,   0,  66N,  561E,  35, 1002, TS,  34, NEQ,    0,   40,   80,   85, 1008,  165,  40,   0,   0,   A,   0,    ,   0,   0,        SIX, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, TRANSITIONED, ioB02019 to io062019,
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发表于 2019-12-3 09:21 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC升格06A
06A SIX 191203 0000 6.6N 56.1E IO 35 1002
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