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[2019] 索马里以东气旋风暴“帕凡”(ARB 05/06A.Pawan) - 7日上午登陆索马里努加尔州

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发表于 2019-12-3 10:30 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-12-3 12:05 编辑

WTIO31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020851ZDEC19//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z --- NEAR 6.6N 56.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.6N 56.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 6.9N 56.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 7.3N 56.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 7.7N 55.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 8.1N 54.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 8.2N 51.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 6.6N 46.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 6.7N 56.1E.
03DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06A (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 754
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL BANDING SEEN IN THE
030058Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH SOLID POLEWARD
OUTFLOW SLIGHTLY OFFSET TO THE NORTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE ARABIAN SEA ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 28-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. TC 06A IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD
BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD OVER THE HORN OF AFRICA AS THE STEERING IS
TRANSFERRED TO ANOTHER STR POSITIONED OVER NORTHERN AFRICA. TC 06A
IS EXPECTED TO BE HAMPERED BY SHEAR BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AFTER TAU
72. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED AT TAU 96 DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT, WITH A TRACK SPREAD OF OVER 666 NM BY TAU 96. GIVEN THE
FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE CYCLONE AND THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE
LONG TERM, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 020900).//
NNNN
CC52BBD6-8DCC-4B20-81B4-0ABF902B05DA.gif
E944D3BE-594A-4441-BB3F-ED0B4FFF6332.jpeg
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发表于 2019-12-3 12:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-12-3 14:06 编辑

ARB/05/2019
Dated: 03.12.2019
Depression intensified into a deep depression over SW Arabian Sea & adjoining Equatorial Indian Ocean at 0530 IST of 3rd Dec, about 740 km south-southeast of Socotra (Yemen).       
CBEB4AD5-6361-456A-9DED-2EB1772F41E7.png
A3C60083-9C0F-4BDE-9595-C10207695F54.png
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发表于 2019-12-3 17:00 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z --- NEAR 6.8N 57.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 6.8N 57.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 7.1N 57.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 7.3N 56.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 7.7N 56.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 7.9N 55.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 7.2N 51.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 6.3N 48.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 6.9N 57.1E.
03DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06A (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 889 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH WAS PLACED USING A 030531Z METOP-A ASCAT
PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) AND THE ASCAT PASS
WHICH SHOWED STRONGER WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND
20-25 KTS TO THE EAST. STRONG (20-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
OFFSETTING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE TO HAMPER INTENSIFICATION. TC 06A IS TRACKING SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD, EQUATORWARD OF A WEAKNESS IN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS TC
06A MOVES AWAY FROM THE WEAKNESS IN THE STR AND BEGINS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE STR. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER DJIBOUTI AFTER TAU 72
WITH AN INTENSITY OF 40-45 KTS. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD WEAKEN TO 25 KTS BY TAU 96. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET
ENSEMBLE MEAN, ALL THE NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS SHOW SIMILAR TRACKS TO THE
JTWC TRACK. BASED ON SPREAD GROWING TO OVER 360 NM AT TAU 96, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MAKES
LANDFALL. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
NNNN
io0619.gif
06A_030600sair.jpg
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发表于 2019-12-4 06:58 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX) WARNING NR 004   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z --- NEAR 7.1N 57.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.1N 57.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 7.5N 57.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 7.9N 56.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 8.1N 55.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 7.9N 53.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 6.9N 50.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 6.1N 46.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 7.2N 57.5E.
03DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 905 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS CURRENTLY
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 1714Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWING
AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH A SWATH OF 30-35 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND A 031747Z SATCON
OF 37 KNOTS. MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
OFFSETTING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE, HAMPERING INTENSIFICATION. TC 06A IS TRACKING
SLOWLY POLEWARD, TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTH. THE TRACK WILL SLOWLY TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS A SECOND
STR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL LIMIT INTENSIFICATION TO 40 KTS. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU
72. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 AS
IT MOVES OVER THE HORN OF AFRICA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE RATE OF TURNING AS THE STR
BUILDS TO THE NORTH, ACCOUNTING FOR MUCH OF THE SPREAD. FOR THAT
REASON, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 11 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07A (SEVEN) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
5111461B-8620-44AE-BB3D-E45ADF7C65E3.gif
FEFDADB9-368F-4D61-9F67-319005084284.jpeg
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发表于 2019-12-4 11:08 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-12-4 11:22 编辑

WTIO31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX) WARNING NR 005   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040000Z --- NEAR 7.2N 57.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.2N 57.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 7.8N 57.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 8.2N 56.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 8.3N 55.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 8.2N 54.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 7.1N 50.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 5.8N 46.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 7.4N 57.6E.
04DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 909 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS CURRENTLY
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THERE IS POOR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 032344Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING POSSIBLE BANDING TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND A 040015Z ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS OFFSETTING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, HAMPERING INTENSIFICATION. TC 06A IS
TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD, TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK WILL SLOWLY TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS
A SECOND STR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED
AFTER TAU 72 OVER SOMALIA. MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
LIMIT INTENSIFICATION TO 40 KTS AND MAY WEAKEN FASTER THAN EXPECTED
AFTER TAU 48. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
TAU 96 AS IT MOVES OVER THE DRY HORN OF AFRICA. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE RATE OF
TURNING AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE NORTH, ACCOUNTING FOR MUCH OF THE
SPREAD. FOR THAT REASON, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CONSENSUS
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS
11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07A (SEVEN) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
io0619.gif
06A_040000sair.jpg
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金玉良言

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发表于 2019-12-4 13:00 | 显示全部楼层
明明这个比较早生成,却被IMD搞成ARB 05B。
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发表于 2019-12-4 16:35 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 麦尔修Mark 于 2019-12-4 17:51 编辑

WTIO31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX) WARNING NR 006   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z --- NEAR 7.4N 57.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.4N 57.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 8.0N 57.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 8.3N 56.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 8.4N 55.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 8.0N 53.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 6.7N 49.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 6.0N 46.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 7.5N 57.6E.
04DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06A (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 905 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TWO AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY. BANDING FEATURES IN A 040509Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SUPPORT THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS ALIGNS WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). STRONG (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
OFFSETTING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE TO HAMPER INTENSIFICATION. TC 06A IS TRACKING SLOWLY
POLEWARD TOWARDS A BREAK IN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. BY
TAU 24, THE STR BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND TC 06A IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TURNING TOWARD A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. AS THE TC APPROACHES
SOMALIA, SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE COOL SST AND
DIMINISHED OUTFLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO WEAKEN BELOW 35 KTS
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH SHOWS A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST AFTER TAU 24, NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT A TRACK SIMILAR TO
THE FORECAST TRACK WITH MOST OF THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE CAUSED BY
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN. THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS HEDGED SOUTH OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE IMPACT FROM NAVGEM
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 12
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 07A (SEVEN) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN
WTIO31 PGTW 040900 RRB
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 8.4N 55.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 8.0N 53.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 6.7N 49.8E
io0619 (1).gif
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-12-4 22:19 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-12-4 22:22 编辑

WTIO31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX) WARNING NR 007   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z --- NEAR 8.2N 57.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.2N 57.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 8.8N 56.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 9.0N 55.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 8.8N 53.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 8.3N 52.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 7.0N 48.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 8.4N 57.0E.
04DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06A (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 864 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A THIN CIRRUS SHIELD THAT IS OBSCURING THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION BASED ON BANDING FEATURES IN A 040952Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND WARM (28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ARE BEING OFFSET
BY STRONG (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE. TC 06A APPEARED TO ACCELERATE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, SUGGESTING A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH HAS BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, THE STR WILL CAUSE TC 06A TO TURN ONTO A WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND REMAIN THERE UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL AND
DISSIPATING. THE FORECAST INTENSITY REFLECTS THE POSSIBILITY THE
SYSTEM COULD INTENSITY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOMALIA
PRIOR TO TAU 72. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH SHOWS A TURN
NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 48, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. THE TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET THE INFLUENCE OF THE NAVGEM TRACK WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07A
(SEVEN) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
06A 12.04 12Z.gif 06A_041200sair.jpg
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发表于 2019-12-5 07:06 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX) WARNING NR 008   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 8.8N 56.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.8N 56.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 9.2N 55.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 9.1N 54.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 8.7N 52.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 8.0N 50.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 6.6N 47.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 56.5E.
04DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06A (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 832
NM EAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL TURNING UNDERNEATH AN
EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD. BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EIR IMAGERY AND
AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 041455Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, THERE IS
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 40 KTS BETWEEN A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T2.5 (35 KTS), A 041500Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.9
(43 KTS), AND A 041204Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 46 KTS WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. TC 06A IS SUPPORTED BY CONTINUED GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 06A HAS TRANSITED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS WHILE THERE WAS A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD. AS THE STR BEGINS TO DRIVE THE
STEERING OF TC 06A, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TRACK PRIOR TO DISSIPATION AND LANDFALL. ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE TRACK FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM WHICH REMAINS A
NORTHERLY OUTLIER. THUS, THE FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE TO OFFSET THE
INFLUENCE OF NAVGEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07A (SEVEN) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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发表于 2019-12-5 11:49 | 显示全部楼层
正式命名Pawan

CYCLONIC STORM ‘PAWAN’ (PRONOUNCED AS ‘PAVAN’) OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA:
THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 14 KMPH DURING PAST 06 HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO CYCLONIC STORM ‘PAWAN’ (PRONOUNCED AS ‘PAVAN’), AND LAY CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF 05TH DECEMBER, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 9.2°N AND LONGITUDE 56.4°E OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA, ABOUT 470 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA (41494) AND 820 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOSASO (63210). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS A CYCLONIC STORM TILL 0000 UTC OF 6TH DECEMBER AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY THEREAFTER. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR SOME MORE TIME, THEN RE- CURVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS SOMALIA COAST AS A DEPRESSION BETWEEN LATITUDES 7° & 8°N DURING 0000 UTC OF 07TH DECEMBER.
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