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[2019] 索马里以东气旋风暴“帕凡”(ARB 05/06A.Pawan) - 7日上午登陆索马里努加尔州

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-12-5 12:20 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2019-12-5 12:24 编辑

WTIO31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX) WARNING NR 009   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z --- NEAR 9.6N 56.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 56.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 9.9N 54.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 9.4N 53.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 8.7N 51.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 8.0N 49.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 9.7N 55.8E.
05DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06A (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
461 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 042146Z
89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) AND AN OLDER 041726Z
SATCON ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS NEUTRAL TO
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 TO 25 KNOTS). HOWEVER, THERE IS
A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 06A IS TRACKING WESTWARD
WHILE POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THAT STR EXTENDS WESTWARD A
SECOND STR TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE
AND CAUSE TC 06A TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE TC 06A TO
STEADILY WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AND DISSIPATE TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 48.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z,
052100Z AND 060300Z.//
NNNN
06A 12.05 00Z.gif 06A_050000sair.jpg
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QQ
发表于 2019-12-5 12:42 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 王小谦同学/ 于 2019-12-5 12:46 编辑

Screen Shot 2019-12-05 at 12.45.01 PM.png
系统超数值预期发展,EC本报认为将会插入亚丁湾登陆吉布提
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-12-5 13:01 | 显示全部楼层
FKIN21 VIDP 050304
TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20191205/0000Z
TC: PAWAN
NR: 08
PSN: N0912 E05624
MOV: WNW05KT
C: 998HPA
MAX WIND: 035KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 05/0600Z N0918 E05554
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 035 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 05/1200Z N0906 E05506
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 035KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 05/1800Z N0848 E05412
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 035KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 06/0000Z N0830 E05318
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 030KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20191205/0900Z
TOO: 050810HRS IST
ftrack.png
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发表于 2019-12-5 16:30 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-12-5 17:05 编辑

北印度洋热带气旋公报
预报:向纯怡  签发:钱奇峰   2019 年  12 月  05 日  18 时
阿拉伯海气旋风暴“帕万”生成

阿拉伯海气旋风暴"帕万"(PAWAN)已于今天(5日,北京时,下同)中午前后生成,下午2点钟位于距离也门穆卡拉东南方向约940公里的洋面上,就是北纬9.6度、东经56.1度,中心附近最大风力有8级(18米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为998百帕,七级风圈半径120-250公里。

预计,"帕万"将以每小时25公里左右的速度向偏西方向移动,强度略有加强。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_ANIO_L89_P9_20191205180002400_XML_1.png
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_ANIO_L89_P9_20191205180002400_XML_2.png
阿拉伯海气旋风暴“帕万”未来48小时路径概率预报图

表 1北印度洋热带气旋“帕万”位置、强度实况及预报(北京时)
项目时效纬度经度中心最低气压(hPa)中心附近最大风速(m / s)强度等级相当于我国的强度等级
实况00h20191205149.6N56.1E99818气旋风暴热带风暴级
预报12h20191206029.3N53.1E99520气旋风暴热带风暴级
24h20191206148.6N51.2E99520气旋风暴热带风暴级
48h20191207147.8N49.1E99818气旋风暴热带风暴级

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发表于 2019-12-5 17:34 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN) WARNING NR 010   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z --- NEAR 9.5N 55.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.5N 55.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 9.3N 54.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 8.6N 52.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 7.9N 50.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 7.2N 48.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 9.5N 55.5E.
05DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06A (PAWAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 462
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED TO
THE NORTH. A 050449Z ASCAT-A IMAGE DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH 35-40KT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40KTS IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY ABOVE A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5
(35KTS) BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF 35-40KT WINDS IN THE ASCAT IMAGE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE (10-
15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 06A IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD TOWARDS SOMALIA A
SECOND RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM
AND WILL BEGIN TO DRIVE TC PAWAN WEST-SOUTHWEST STARTING AT TAU 12.
DURING THIS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THE SYSTEM WILL EXPERIENCE
COOLER SST AND BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER WATER AT TAU 36. TC PAWAN WILL
THEN MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL SOMALIA WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU
48 DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//
NNNN
io0619.gif
06A_050600sair.jpg
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-12-5 23:34 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN) WARNING NR 011   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z --- NEAR 9.4N 54.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.4N 54.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 8.9N 53.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 8.2N 51.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 7.5N 49.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 9.3N 54.5E.
05DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 458
NM SOUTH OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT AGENCY
FIXES AND 050916Z GMI SENSOR MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE
INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER
DATA. TC 06A LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG POLEWARD FLOW ALOFT. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT HAS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. VWS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, BUT STRONG OUTFLOW SHOULD ENABLE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION TO FLARE PERIODICALLY AND PREVENT DISSIPATION PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. TC 06A WILL FOLLOW THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH TOWARD ANTICIPATED LANDFALL IN SOMALIA
PRIOR TO TAU 36. PASSAGE OVER LAND WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE HIGH CERTAINTY STEERING SCENARIO. THEREFORE, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.//
NNNN
06A 12.05 12Z.gif 06A_051200sair.jpg SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20191205200000060.jpg
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发表于 2019-12-6 07:10 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN) WARNING NR 012   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z --- NEAR 8.5N 54.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.5N 54.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 7.7N 52.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 7.0N 50.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 6.4N 48.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 8.3N 53.7E.
05DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06A (PAWAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510
NM SOUTH OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY
REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER UNDER UPPER-
LEVEL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY A BULLSEYE
051734Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS HEDGED ON THE LOWER END
OF A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35-39 KTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS
DEPICTED A REGION OF 25-29 KTS WINDS IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE
SYSTEM, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. TC 06A
REMAINS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND STRONG POLEWARD FLOW ALOFT. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
HAS CAUSED THE MAJORITY OF THE FLARING CONVECTION TO BE LIMITED TO THE
NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN
ITS STRONG OUTFLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, OFFSETTING THE
PERSISTENT VWS AND MAINTAINING SYSTEM STRENGTH UNTIL LANDFALL. TC 06A
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITH ANTICIPATED LANDFALL IN SOMALIA PRIOR
TO TAU 36. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND, IT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE STEERING SCENARIO WITH ONLY 40 NM OF CROSS-TRACK SPREAD
PRIOR TO LANDFALL, PLACING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.//
NNNN
BFBDF913-CDF2-4CE6-B033-B4B231748B0E.gif
8E93A92D-903C-4E27-B68F-912E9798CE00.jpeg
6DBA8BA4-AC0B-4608-AF46-DAE188483BB6.png
05DB74BC-C555-454D-B6F5-FE58487E5C01.png
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发表于 2019-12-6 09:40 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2019-12-6 12:11 编辑

北印度洋热带气旋公报

预报:聂高臻  签发:向纯怡   2019 年  12 月  06 日  10


气旋风暴“帕万”向西偏南方向移动

阿拉伯海气旋风暴"帕万"(PAWAN) 的中心今天上午8点钟(6日,北京时,下同)位于距离索马里摩加迪沙东北方向约1180公里的洋面上,就是北纬8.9度、东经53.6度,中心附近最大风力有8级(18米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为998百帕,七级风圈半径120-250公里。

预计,"帕万"将以每小时15里左右的速度向西偏南方向移动,强度变化不大,逐渐向索马里东部沿海靠近,并将于7日白天在上述沿海登陆,登陆后强度迅速减弱

受其影响,6日白天到7日夜间,阿拉伯海西北部部分海域、亚丁湾将有7-8级大风,部分海域风力9级。

SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_ANIO_L89_P9_20191206100002400_XML_1.png
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_ANIO_L89_P9_20191206100002400_XML_2.png

阿拉伯海气旋风暴“帕万”未来36小时路径概率预报图

表 1北印度洋热带气旋“帕万”位置、强度实况及预报(北京时)

项目时效纬度经度中心最低气压(hPa)中心附近最大风速(m / s)强度等级相当于我国的强度等级
实况00h20191205149.6N56.1E99818气旋风暴热带风暴级
00h20191205209.5N54.8E99818气旋风暴热带风暴级
00h20191206029.3N54.0E99818气旋风暴热带风暴级
00h20191206088.9N53.6E99818气旋风暴热带风暴级
预报12h20191206208.3N52.0E99818气旋风暴热带风暴级
24h20191207087.4N50.2E99818气旋风暴热带风暴级
36h20191207206.3N48.1E100016深低压热带低压
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发表于 2019-12-6 12:07 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN) WARNING NR 013   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z --- NEAR 8.1N 53.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.1N 53.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 7.4N 51.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 6.7N 49.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 6.0N 47.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 7.9N 52.6E.
06DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 537
NM SOUTH OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST OVER AND TO
THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURING THE
EXACT POSITION OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION PLACEMENT IS
SUPPORTED BY A 060000Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE THAT DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL BANDING
WRAPPING IN BENEATH THE FLARE UP OF CONVECTION LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE
TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35
KNOTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 37 KNOTS. TC 06A REMAINS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND STRONG POLEWARD
FLOW ALOFT. TC 06A WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD,
FOLLOWING THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST, WITH ANTICIPATED LANDFALL IN SOMALIA AT TAU 24. AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER LAND, IT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE TERRAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK,
PLACING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.//
NNNN
io0619.gif
06A_060000sair.jpg
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发表于 2019-12-6 16:30 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-12-6 17:15 编辑

北印度洋热带气旋公报
预报:聂高臻  签发:向纯怡   2019 年  12 月  06 日  18 时
气旋风暴“帕万”向西偏南方向移动

阿拉伯海气旋风暴"帕万"(PAWAN) 的中心今天下午2点钟(6日,北京时,下同)位于距离索马里摩加迪沙东北方向约1020公里的洋面上,就是北纬8.0度、东经52.4度,中心附近最大风力有8级(20米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为995百帕,七级风圈半径120-250公里。

预计,"帕万"将以每小时18公里左右的速度向西偏南方向移动,强度变化不大,逐渐向索马里东部沿海靠近,并将于7日白天在上述沿海登陆,登陆后强度迅速减弱。

受其影响,6日夜间到7日夜间,阿拉伯海西北部部分海域、亚丁湾将有7-8级大风,部分海域风力9级。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_ANIO_L89_P9_20191206180002400_XML_1.png
图1 FY-2H卫星监测图像(北京时间6日14时)
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_ANIO_L89_P9_20191206180002400_XML_2.png
图2 阿拉伯海气旋风暴“帕万”未来36小时路径概率预报图
表 1北印度洋热带气旋“PAWAN”位置、强度实况及预报(北京时)
项目时效纬度经度中心最低气压(hPa)中心附近最大风速(m / s)强度等级相当于我国的强度等级
实况00h20191205149.6N56.1E99818气旋风暴热带风暴级
00h20191205209.5N54.8E99818气旋风暴热带风暴级
00h20191206029.3N54.0E99818气旋风暴热带风暴级
00h20191206088.9N53.6E99818气旋风暴热带风暴级
00h20191206148.0N52.4E99520气旋风暴热带风暴级
预报12h20191207027.3N50.6E99818气旋风暴热带风暴级
24h20191207146.8N48.6E100016深低压热带低压
36h20191208025.8N45.8E100214深低压热带低压

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