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[2019] 索马里以东气旋风暴“帕凡”(ARB 05/06A.Pawan) - 7日上午登陆索马里努加尔州

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发表于 2019-12-6 17:35 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN) WARNING NR 014   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z --- NEAR 7.9N 53.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.9N 53.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 7.2N 51.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 6.5N 49.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 5.6N 46.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 7.7N 52.5E.
06DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06A (PAWAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550
NM SOUTH OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 060321Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES LIMITED CURVED BANDING OVER THE NORTH
QUADRANT OF THE LLCC WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE
BASED ON A 060544Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE IMAGE SHOWING AN ELONGATED,
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (27C). TC 06A IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC PAWAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR TAU 24 AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 36 AS IT TRACKS INLAND.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//
NNNN
io0619.gif
06A_060600sair.jpg
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发表于 2019-12-7 00:42 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN) WARNING NR 015   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z --- NEAR 7.6N 51.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 7.6N 51.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 6.9N 49.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 6.2N 47.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 7.4N 51.3E.
06DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06A (PAWAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 508
NM SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 061309Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD,
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
35 KNOTS BASED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 2.5-3.0 (35-45 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD
OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (27C). TC 06A IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC PAWAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR TAU 12 AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS INLAND.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//
NNNN
io0619.gif
06A_061200sair.jpg

SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20191206200000060.jpg
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发表于 2019-12-7 07:25 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN) WARNING NR 016   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z --- NEAR 8.2N 50.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.2N 50.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 7.5N 48.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 6.8N 46.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 8.0N 50.2E.
06DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 435
NM SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 061712Z METOP-A AMSU 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE ASSOCIATED 061713Z ASCAT FURTHER SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE SHOWING 30-35KT WIND BARBS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AS WELL AS AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS FROM 061745Z AND A 061703Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (27 DEGREES CELSIUS). TC 06A IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC PAWAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS INLAND DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND DRY AIR OVER THE HORN OF AFRICA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN
io0619.gif
06A_061800sair.jpg
SEVP_NMC_TCBU_SFER_EME_ACWP_L89_PF_20191207020000060.jpg
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发表于 2019-12-7 07:31 | 显示全部楼层
FKIN21 VIDP 062000
TC ADVISORY
TCAC: NEW DELHI
DTG: 20191206/1800Z
TC: PAWAN
NR: 15
PSN: N0730 E05118
MOV: WSW13KT
C: 998HPA
MAX WIND: 035KT
FCST PSN+06HR: 07/0000Z N0700 E05006
FCST MAX WIND +6HRS: 035 KT
FCST PSN+12HR: 07/0600Z N0636 E04900
FCST MAX WIND+12HR: 030KT
FCST PSN+18HR: 07/1200Z N0606 E04742
FCST MAX WIND+18HR: 025KT
FCST PSN+24HR: 07/1800Z N0548 E04642
FCST MAX WIND+24HR: 020KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20191207/0300Z
TOO: 070120HRS IST
ftrack.png
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发表于 2019-12-7 11:22 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN) WARNING NR 017   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z --- NEAR 8.2N 49.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 8.2N 49.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 7.5N 47.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 8.0N 49.2E.
07DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (PAWAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 391
NM SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE
OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS TC 06A MOVES OVER THE HORN OF
AFRICA. A 062157Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON EXPECTED
WEAKENING OVER LAND AND DECAYING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TC 06A IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 12 DUE TO CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS IT MOVES OVER LAND. TC 06A IS FORECAST TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN
io0619.gif
06A_070000sair.jpg
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发表于 2019-12-7 11:45 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-12-7 11:50 编辑

北印度洋热带气旋公报
预报:张玲  签发:许映龙   2019 年  12 月  07 日  10 时
气旋风暴“帕万”
在索马里东北部沿海登陆

阿拉伯海气旋风暴"帕万"(PAWAN) 的中心已于今天(7日,北京时,下同)上午7点50分前后在索马里努加尔州(NUGAAL)沿海登陆,登陆时中心附近最大风力有8级(20米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为995百帕。上午8点钟"帕万"的中心仍位于索马里努加尔州境内,就是北纬7.7度、东经49.7度,中心附近最大风力仍有8级(20米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级)。

预计,"帕万"将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西偏南方向移动,强度逐渐减弱。

注:本次公报为“帕万”的最后一次报告。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_ANIO_L89_P9_20191207100002400_XML_1.png
图1. FY-2H卫星红外监测图像(2019年12月7日08时)
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_ANIO_L89_P9_20191207100002400_XML_2.png
图2. 阿拉伯海气旋风暴“PAWAN”未来24小时路径概率预报图

表 1北印度洋热带气旋“PAWAN”位置、强度实况及预报(北京时)
项目时效纬度经度中心最低气压(hPa)中心附近最大风速(m / s)强度等级相当于我国的强度等级
实况00h20191205149.6N56.1E99818气旋风暴热带风暴级
00h20191205209.5N54.8E99818气旋风暴热带风暴级
00h20191206029.3N54.0E99818气旋风暴热带风暴级
00h20191206088.9N53.6E99818气旋风暴热带风暴级
00h20191206148.0N52.4E99520气旋风暴热带风暴级
00h20191206207.9N52.0E99818气旋风暴热带风暴级
00h20191207027.5N51.0E99818气旋风暴热带风暴级
00h20191207087.7N49.7E99520气旋风暴热带风暴级
预报12h20191207206.9N47.3E100215深低压热带低压
24h20191208086.0N45.2E100612低压热带低压

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发表于 2019-12-7 14:40 | 显示全部楼层
The Cyclonic storm ‘Pawan’ (Pronounced as ‘Pavan’) over Southwest Arabian Sea moved
nearly westwards with a speed of 26 kmph during past 06 hours, crossed Somalia coast near Latitude
7.4°N and Longitude 49.6°E during 0730 to 0830 hrs IST of today, the 07th December 2019 as a
Cyclonic Storm with a wind speed of 60-70 Kmph gusting to 80 Kmph, weakened into a Deep
Depression and lay centered at 0830 hrs IST of 07
th December, 2019 over coastal Somalia and
neighborhood near latitude 7.4°N and longitude 49.5°E. It is very likely to continue to move nearly
westwards and weaken into a depression during next 06 hours and into a well marked low pressure
area during the subsequent 12 hours.
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发表于 2019-12-7 16:58 | 显示全部楼层
索马里当地有没有灾情?记得13年一个热带低压都能致死100多人
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发表于 2019-12-7 21:27 | 显示全部楼层
09Z降低压
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发表于 2019-12-7 22:27 | 显示全部楼层
降WML
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