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[2019] 印度以西深低压ARB 06(07A)

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发表于 2019-12-2 05:28 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 颱風巨爵 于 2019-12-7 00:20 编辑

91A INVEST 191201 1800 7.9N 73.3E IO 15 1010

20191201.2030.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.91AINVEST.15kts-79N-733E.100pc.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-12-2 07:05 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:LOW

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-12-2 07:10 编辑

ABIO10 PGTW 012230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/012230Z-021800ZDEC2019//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.5N 57.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 57.0E, APPROXIMATELY 723 NM
NORTHEAST OF MOGADISHU, SOMALIA. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
011714Z 89GHZ MHS IMAGE DEPICT BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW AND
LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING
90A SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. NVGM,
HOWEVER, SHOWS 90A STEADILY INTENSIFYING WHILE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS SOCOTRA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.9N
73.3E, APPROXIMATELY 214 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A DISORGANIZED
CIRCULATION. A 011648 METOP-B PASS SHOWS A WEAK, BUT DEFINED
CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 27-28C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING 91A TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.8S 53.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3S 54.9E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MAHE, SEYCHELLES. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A
011826Z 89GHZ MHS IMAGE REVEAL A CONSOLIDATING ELONGATED CIRCULATION
WITH DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15-25 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD  EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE AT 29-30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AND GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN 1.B.(2) AND UPGRADED
AREAS IN 1.B.(1) AND 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN
540041C2-7A6F-4A47-99A6-0D06EE2FFEAC.jpeg
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发表于 2019-12-3 18:17 | 显示全部楼层
7bf2462309f79052aa68d05c03f3d7ca7bcbd537.jpg 8a9ea786c9177f3ef8f67d6f7fcf3bc79e3d566c.jpg.png
稍早前风场40kt 但是不闭合
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-12-3 18:45 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:TCFA

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2019-12-3 21:45 编辑

WTIO21 PGTW 031100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6N 71.1E TO 15.3N 68.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 030428Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 71.0E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.8N 72.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 71.0E, APPROXIMATELY 380
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 030502Z METOP-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A
030428Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS SHOWS A CLEAR LLC WITH 30-35 KT WINDS TO
THE EAST AND 15-20 KT WINDS TO THE WEST. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
IS MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE-TO-STRONG (15-
25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28-29 CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING 91A TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28
TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041100Z.//
NNNN
io9119.gif
abiosair.jpg

稍早前JTWC修改06Z强度
91A INVEST 191203 0600 12.9N 71.0E IO 35 996
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发表于 2019-12-3 21:03 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:T1.5

TPIO11 PGTW 031211
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91A (SW OF INDIA)
B. 03/1130Z
C. 12.89N
D. 70.36E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T1.5/1.5/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5 MET 1.5 PT 1.5 DBO DT
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   STIGSSON
20191203.1130.msg1.x.vis1km_high.91AINVEST.35kts-996mb-129N-710E.100pc.jpg
20191203.1130.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.91AINVEST.35kts-996mb-129N-710E.100pc.jpg
20191203.1130.msg1.ir.BD.91AINVEST.35kts-996mb.jpg
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-12-3 21:05 | 显示全部楼层

升格07A

红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2019-12-3 21:03
TPIO11 PGTW 031211
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 91A (SW OF INDIA)
B. 03/1130Z


07A SEVEN 191203 1200 13.4N 70.2E IO 35 1002
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发表于 2019-12-3 21:25 | 显示全部楼层
炎煌深沉 发表于 2019-12-3 21:05
07A SEVEN 191203 1200 13.4N 70.2E IO 35 1002

稍早前扫描显示可能已有底层眼
20191203.1105.f16.x.colorpct_91h_91v_1deg.91AINVEST.35kts-996mb-129N-710E.097pc.jpg
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-12-3 22:26 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO32 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07A (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031051ZDEC2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07A (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 70.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 70.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 14.4N 69.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 15.3N 68.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 16.0N 66.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 16.5N 65.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 16.9N 63.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 70.0E.
03DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07A (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 367
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS GOOD BANDING AND POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION,
PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). BASED ON BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT IN A 031206Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ABOVE THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5
(25 KTS) DUE TO A 030428Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED 35 KT WINDS
TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, THE UPPER LEVELS ARE MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE. AT 28-29 CELSIUS, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS SUPPORTIVE.
FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 07A IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). BY TAU 24, HIGH
VWS SHOULD HAMPER INTENSIFICATION AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE DISSIPATION
PRIOR TO TAU 72. AS THIS IS THE FIRST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM, THERE
ARE VERY LIMITED AIDS TO PROVIDE GUIDANCE ON TRACK OR INTENSITY,
HOWEVER, THE LIMITED AIDS AVAILABLE FOR THIS WARNING ALIGN WELL WITH
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. BASED ON THE LIMITED GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z
IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 031100).//
NNNN
ED6D0B19-F84A-4044-A9E5-C0C670FDAB77.gif
4C43902F-5300-43A7-BD3D-5947852E514B.jpeg
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-12-4 06:10 | 显示全部楼层
(b) Depression over Eastcentral Arabian Sea and adjoining areas of Southeast Arabian Sea & Lakshadweep area :
The Well Marked Low pressure area over Eastcentral Arabian Sea and adjoining areas of Southeast Arabian Sea & Lakshadweep area concentrated into a depression and centred at 2330 hrs IST of 03rd December, 2019 near latitude 12.7°N and longitude 71.0°E over Eastcentral Arabian Sea and adjoining areas of Southeast Arabian Sea & Lakshadweep area. It is very likely to concentrate into a Deep Depression during next 24 hours.
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-12-4 07:00 | 显示全部楼层
WTIO32 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07A (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07A (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z --- NEAR 13.5N 69.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 69.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 14.5N 68.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 15.3N 67.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 15.9N 66.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 16.4N 64.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 69.3E.
03DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07A (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 031635Z METOP-B AMSU
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT MOST DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED EAST OF
THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35
KTS IS BASED ON A 031635Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWING A BROAD SWATH
OF 35 KT WINDS TO THE EAST WITH SEVERAL 40 KT WIND BARBS; HOWEVER,
THE WIND FIELD IS ASYMMETRIC, WITH ONLY 25-30 KT WINDS WRAPPING
AROUND THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM AS REVEALED IN A 031715Z
METOP-C ASCAT PASS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE, WITH
FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BALANCED BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 07A IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST. BY TAU 24, TC 07A WILL MOVE INTO A HIGH VWS ENVIRONMENT
AND INTO COOLER (27 DEGREE CELSIUS) WATER, WHICH WILL LIMIT
INTENSIFICATION AND LIKELY CAUSE DISSIPATION PRIOR TO TAU 48. ECMWF,
GFS, HWRF, AND COAMPS-TC (GFS) WEAKEN TC 07A EVEN SOONER AND SHOW IT
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA AFTER TAU 12, WHILE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL
MODELS MAINTAIN IT AS A MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR LONGER BASED
ON THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06A (SIX) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW)FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
67D7A1BF-1DD0-4389-9809-15A84FFE43FF.gif
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