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[2020] 斐济东南三级强热带气旋“蒂诺”(04F/08P.Tino) - 东南行进,影响斐济 - JTWC:70KT

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强台风

It's Always With Me.

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发表于 2020-1-12 08:56 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 933954 于 2020-1-20 23:41 编辑

93P INVEST 200112 0000 12.0S 162.5E SHEM 15 1010

20200112.0030.himawari-8.ir.93P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.12S.162.5E.100pc.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
红豆棒冰冰 + 3 + 3 93P

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强台风

It's Always With Me.

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 楼主| 发表于 2020-1-12 10:05 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD04F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 11.6S
163.0E AT 112100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 8
VIS IMAGERY.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC
AND REMAINS POORLY ORGANISED. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO
500HPA. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH GOOD
OUTFLOW IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 31 DEGREES
CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
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热带风暴

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发表于 2020-1-12 12:42 | 显示全部楼层
感觉很有可能又是一个死于多中心混战的扰动
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发表于 2020-1-12 17:51 | 显示全部楼层
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD04F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.0S
163.9E AT 120900 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI 8
IR IMAGERY.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
SUPPOSED LLCC AND REMAINS POORLY ORGANISED. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS
AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.   
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论坛版主-副热带高压

Sing For You~

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

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发表于 2020-1-13 05:10 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:LOW

ABPW10 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/122100Z-130600ZJAN2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.8S 163.5E, APPROXIMATELY 407 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 121805Z 91GHZ SSMIS
IMAGE DEPICT BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. 93P IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P
WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD BEFORE
EVENTUALLY TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS LOW.//
NNNN
B51FD180-164C-4C10-AE54-CC46F64E645A.jpeg
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发表于 2020-1-13 10:42 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 122300 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD04F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.2S
161.9E AT 122100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8
IR IMAGERY.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
SUPPOSED LLCC AND REMAINS POORLY ORGANISED. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS
AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.

*********************************************************************
***************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
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发表于 2020-1-13 15:05 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:REMAINS LOW

ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZJAN2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:   
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.8S 163.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 164.0E, APPROXIMATELY
387 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILLA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 130523Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. 93P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (<15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93P WILL CONTINUE TO
STEADILY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD BEFORE EVENTUALLY TURNING
SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg
20200113.0523.f16.91pct91h91v.93P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.12.8S.164E.090pc.jpg
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台风

愿你常伴着我。

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发表于 2020-1-13 18:55 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 三旋共舞 于 2020-1-13 19:01 编辑

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 130908 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD04F CENTRE [1002HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.5S
162.8E AT 130600 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8
IR IMAGERY.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
SUPPOSED LLCC AND REMAINS POORLY ORGANISED. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS
AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.   
SHGMSCOL (2).jpg
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发表于 2020-1-14 11:45 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 140040 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD04F CENTRE [1000HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.6S
166.6E AT 132100 UTC SLOW MOVING. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8
IR IMAGERY.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
SUPPOSED LLCC AND REMAINS POORLY ORGANISED. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UPTO 500HPA. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE
WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS
AROUND 31 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND GRADUALLY MOVE IT
SOUTHEASTWARDS WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

*********************************************************************
***************

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.
SHGMSCOL.JPG
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发表于 2020-1-14 13:27 | 显示全部楼层
FMS对这个系统发布暴雨警告
SITUATION: TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD04F LIES TO THE FAR NORTHWEST OF FIJI. THE ASSOCIATED ACTIVE RAINBANDS
ARE EXPECTED TO START AFFECTING THE GROUP FROM TOMORROW.


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