台风论坛

 找回密码
 立即注册
搜索
热搜: 台风
查看: 1809|回复: 27

[2020] 马达加斯加以东中等热带风暴第8号“佛朗西斯科”(13S.Francisco) - 两度加强

[复制链接]
发表于 2020-2-9 18:53 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2020-2-16 14:11 编辑

本帖属于论坛重新开放后恢复性质开帖,公平起见不进行加分。
热带扰动90S贴吧讨论:https://tieba.baidu.com/p/6468303750
热带气旋13S贴吧讨论:https://tieba.baidu.com/p/6474617620

编扰资讯

90S INVEST 200131 1800 8.0S 63.0E SHEM 15 0

90S开帖图.jpg
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
回复

使用道具 举报

32

主题

2463

帖子

6649

积分

强台风

积分
6649
发表于 2020-2-9 19:02 | 显示全部楼层

CMA《全球热带气旋监测公报》存档

本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2020-2-9 19:14 编辑

CMA-202013S.rar (2.06 MB, 下载次数: 4)
回复

使用道具 举报

 楼主| 发表于 2020-2-9 20:52 | 显示全部楼层
此前路径存档
13S FRANCISCO 200209 1200 21.0S 66.9E SHEM 20 1004
13S FRANCISCO 200209 0600 20.8S 67.1E SHEM 20 1004
13S FRANCISCO 200209 0000 20.6S 67.2E SHEM 20 1004
13S FRANCISCO 200208 1800 20.2S 67.3E SHEM 20 1006
13S FRANCISCO 200208 1200 20.1S 67.4E SHEM 20 1007
13S FRANCISCO 200208 0600 20.1S 67.6E SHEM 20 1004
13S FRANCISCO 200208 0000 20.3S 68.0E SHEM 20 1004
13S FRANCISCO 200207 1800 20.4S 68.7E SHEM 25 1005
13S FRANCISCO 200207 1200 20.3S 69.6E SHEM 25 1003
13S FRANCISCO 200207 0600 20.3S 70.5E SHEM 30 1002
13S FRANCISCO 200207 0000 20.5S 71.1E SHEM 30 1000
13S FRANCISCO 200206 1800 20.5S 71.5E SHEM 30 1001
13S FRANCISCO 200206 1200 19.8S 71.8E SHEM 30 1001
13S FRANCISCO 200206 0600 19.1S 71.7E SHEM 35 1000
13S FRANCISCO 200206 0000 18.2S 71.0E SHEM 40 995
13S FRANCISCO 200205 1800 17.6S 70.3E SHEM 40 996
13S FRANCISCO 200205 1200 17.3S 69.4E SHEM 45 994
13S FRANCISCO 200205 0600 16.9S 68.3E SHEM 40 996
13S FRANCISCO 200205 0000 16.4S 67.2E SHEM 35 1000
13S FRANCISCO 200204 1800 15.8S 66.4E SHEM 35 1002
13S FRANCISCO 200204 1200 15.2S 65.7E SHEM 30 1002
13S FRANCISCO 200204 0600 14.6S 65.1E SHEM 25 1003
13S FRANCISCO 200204 0000 14.3S 64.9E SHEM 25 1004
13S FRANCISCO 200203 1800 14.0S 64.6E SHEM 25 1006
13S FRANCISCO 200203 1200 13.7S 64.3E SHEM 25 1004
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
回复

使用道具 举报

4

主题

362

帖子

1271

积分

强热带风暴

积分
1271
QQ
发表于 2020-2-10 08:10 | 显示全部楼层
JTWC:重新加强为TD。
13S JTWC全部风圈数据展示

13S.png

回复

使用道具 举报

119

主题

9548

帖子

3万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

Sing For You~

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
34814
发表于 2020-2-10 21:28 | 显示全部楼层
Remnant low FRANCISCO :
Position at 1000UTC : 21.8 °S / 62.5 °E
Max 10 min winds : 25 kt locally 30 kt over the southern semi-circle.
MSLP : 1002 hPa
Forward motion : west-northwestwards at 14 kt
During the last 24 hours, the system has bend westwards over the northern edge of the low to mid
levels subtropical ridge. Within the next few days, environmental conditions remains marginally
favorable for re-intensification. The shear has lessen but very dry mid-levels air should prevent
from the building of sustained deep convection near the center. However, due to the diurnal cycle,
temporarily burst of convection may develop near the center. As the system should track generally
northwestwards and then westwards within the next 48 hours, it is expected to pass very near the
northern tip of Mauritius late tomorrow and then north of La Reunion Wednesday morning
associated with some gusty winds and rainy conditions. Later this week the system should dissipate
near or over the eastern coasts of Madagascar.
There is no risk that the system redevelops into a tropical storm during the next 5 days.
cyclogenese.png
回复

使用道具 举报

4

主题

362

帖子

1271

积分

强热带风暴

积分
1271
QQ
发表于 2020-2-11 17:19 | 显示全部楼层
继续向西北移动,风速维持25kts。重新发展增强的可能性不大。
13S.png

回复

使用道具 举报

4

主题

362

帖子

1271

积分

强热带风暴

积分
1271
QQ
发表于 2020-2-13 14:14 | 显示全部楼层
正在接近马达加斯加岛,强度维持TD。

预计在莫桑比克海峡可能生成背风低压并有所发展。
13S.png

回复

使用道具 举报

119

主题

7240

帖子

4万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
41156
发表于 2020-2-13 16:00 | 显示全部楼层
40kts
20200213.0549.mta.ASCAT.wind.13S.FRANCISCO.30kts-1004mb.180S.508E.25km.noqc.jpg
台风论坛第80000个帖子诞生!
回复

使用道具 举报

 楼主| 发表于 2020-2-13 16:21 | 显示全部楼层
目前GFS、ECMWF均不支持其进一步发展
13S_tracks_latest.png
13S_gefs_latest.png
ecmwf_z500_mslp_safr_fh0-240.gif
sio.png
71S.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
回复

使用道具 举报

119

主题

9548

帖子

3万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

Sing For You~

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
34814
发表于 2020-2-13 19:44 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Depression FRANCISCO :
Position at 0900UTC : 17.9 °S / 50.4 °E
Max 10 min winds : 30 kt over the Western semi-circle.
MSLP : 1004 hPa
Forward motion : West-northwestwards at 8 kt

A strong convective burst triggered overnight on the entire circulation. Convective activity
maintained quite well over the Southwestern quadrant benefiting from a good poleward upper
divergence as well as a better surface convergence. The ASCAT-A and ASCAT-C swaths showed a
well-defined surface circulation with winds reaching 30kt in the Western semi-circle.
Tomorrow, the
circulation should track southward along the Madagascan coastline, before landing Saturday
morning.

From tonight, with FRANCISCO coming closer before landing on Madagascar, the coastal
regions South of Tamatave will be affected by a strong and durable thunderstorm activity.
The accumulated rainfall over the next 5 days could reach 250mm and exceed 300mm locally.
To a lesser extent, the mountainous regions inland, including Tananarive, should also be
affected with accumulated rainfall reaching 100mm over the episode.
In the beginning of next week, the residual circulation could come back over sea in the
Mozambique Channel. Environmental conditions are very unfavorable for a re-intensification with
an especially strong Northwesterly shear.

There is a low risk that FRANCISCO reaches tropical storm intensity again before its
landfall.
cyclogenese.png
回复

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 立即注册

本版积分规则

Archiver|手机版|小黑屋|台风论坛 ( 沪ICP备11041484号-3 )

GMT+8, 2020-8-11 14:11

Powered by Discuz! X3.4 Licensed

© 2001-2017 Comsenz Inc.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表