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查戈斯群岛以南中等热带风暴第9号“加贝奇尔”(16S.Gabekile) - 短暂风眼建立

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发表于 2020-2-12 23:24 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-17 20:50 编辑

94S INVEST 200212 1200 15.0S 75.0E SHEM 15 0

20200212.1500.msg-1.ir.94S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.15S.75E.100pc.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
1007圆规 + 3 + 3 94S

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发表于 2020-2-13 05:50 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:LOW

ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/121800Z-131800ZFEB2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.0S 75.0E, APPROXIMATELY 484 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) SURROUNDED BY LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTION,
WITH LIMITED CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 121255Z WINDSAT 37GHZ PARTIAL
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE SURROUNDING CONVECTION AS SLIGHTLY
FRAGMENTED WITH SOME ORGANIZATION DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH. 94S IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94S
WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION, BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFYING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
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发表于 2020-2-13 19:47 | 显示全部楼层
Suspect area within the Monsoon trough :

Convection maintained overnight and even wraps around a now well-defined circulation near
14.5S/74.5E at 1030Z. This morning ASCAT-A swath shows a surface circulation still elongated but
with max winds reaching 20kt North and South of the center.
The central pressure is estimated at
1007 hPa. Within conducive environmental conditions, especially aloft, a significant strengthening
is awaited over this week-end. The american model (GFS) is now in agreement with the euro
scenario (IFS) from yesterday's 18Z run, and forecast a significant strengthening. Moreover, the
cyclogenesis signal clearly increased within the ensemble prediction.

The risk of formation of a moderate tropical storm over the center of the basin becomes
moderate Saturday and then high from Monday.
cyclogenese.png
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发表于 2020-2-13 22:35 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-13 22:40 编辑

ABIO10 PGTW 131230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/REISSUED/131230Z-131800ZFEB2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0S 75.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 75.3E, APPROXIMATELY 475
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT IN 130814Z AMSR2
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) AND MODERATE POLEWARD AND
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE
WITH SLOW EASTWARD TO POLEWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 13S) HAS PERSISTED
NEAR 18.0S 50.8E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM EAST OF TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. METOP-A ASCAT IMAGERY FROM 130549Z INDICATES 25-30 KNOT
WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS DISTURBANCE WITH A CONFINED AREA OF 35
TO 40 KNOT WINDS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF GRADIENT-INDUCED, CONVERGENT
FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-29C), STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-
30 KNOTS) AND ANTICIPATED PASSAGE OVER LAND MAKES ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY. NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW WEAKENING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD AND
POLEWARD ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR AND EVENTUALLY
INLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2).//
NNNN
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发表于 2020-2-14 16:40 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-14 16:52 编辑

WTXS21 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.4S 74.9E TO 18.0S 74.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6S 74.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.8S 75.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 74.8E, APPROXIMATELY 448
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140500Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A
140413Z PARTIAL ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-
30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150900Z.//
NNNN

WTXS21 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.4S 74.9E TO 18.0S 74.6E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 020600Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 74.8E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.8S 75.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 74.8E, APPROXIMATELY 448
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140500Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A
140413Z PARTIAL ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-
30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150900Z.//
NNNN
sh9420.gif
94S_140900sair.jpg
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发表于 2020-2-14 23:54 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:T1.5

TPXS11 PGTW 141207
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (SE OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 14/1130Z
C. 14.55S
D. 75.13E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T1.5/1.5  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON
LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RHOADES

TPXS11 PGTW 141459
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (SE OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 14/1430Z
C. 14.98S
D. 75.57E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   14/1151Z  14.67S  75.37E  GPMI
   RHOADES
vis_lalo-animated.gif
ir_lalo-animated.gif
bd_lalo-animated.gif
wv_lalo-animated.gif
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发表于 2020-2-15 04:08 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-15 08:51 编辑

结果还是没管Francisco
265B0406-9410-4739-809B-C3AC5D8A4211.png
WTIO30 FMEE 141817
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/9/20192020
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 9
2.A POSITION 2020/02/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 74.9 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 2200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/15 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2020/02/15 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2020/02/16 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2020/02/16 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2020/02/17 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2020/02/17 18 UTC: 19.1 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/18 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/19 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 71.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0
A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN MONITORED OVER
THIS AREA FOR MORE THAN 24H. FOR NOW, CONVECTION IS MAINLY TRIGGERING
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WHERE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS
STRONGER THAN ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE. MODEL ANALYSIS ALSO SUGGEST A
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY UPPER WINDSHEAR. 1630Z ASCAT SWATH SHOWS WINDS OF
25-KT WELL DISTRIBUTED AROUND THE CIRCULATION, CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATIONS.
WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD FROM TOMORROW.
SUNDAY, THE RIDGE BECOMES TOO FAR AWAY AND ITS INFLUENCE WEAKENS. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD THUS SLOW DOWN BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY, AS IT WAITS
FOR THE NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST. FROM MONDAY,
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES, PROBABLY DUE TO THE LACK OF A LARGE-SCALE
STRUCTURE CLOSE ENOUGH TO DEFINE A CLEAR STEERING FLOW.
TOMORROW, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH NO MORE UPPER
CONSTRAINT AND STILL A GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. CYCLOGENESIS IS THUS
VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR. HOWEVER SUNDAY, A WESTERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY
MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONSTRAINT COULD AFFECT THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED
TO DRIER ENVIRONMENTAL AIR. THUS, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY COULD COME TO A
HALT AS ITS DEVELOPMENT IS DISTURBED BY INTERMITTENT DRY INTRUSIONS.
FROM MONDAY EVENING, AS AN UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST,
A STRONG NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD DEFINITELY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM.
THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE HANDLING QUITE DIFFERENTLY THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM INTENSITY ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WHICH MAKES THE INTENSITY FORECAST SENSIBLY MORE
UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.
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发表于 2020-2-15 08:55 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-15 09:17 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 150013
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/9/20192020
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9
2.A POSITION 2020/02/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 74.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 80 NW: 80
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/15 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2020/02/16 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2020/02/16 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2020/02/17 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2020/02/17 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2020/02/18 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/19 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/20 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST TRIGGERED. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW WELL RELOCATED UNDER THE MOST
ACTIVE CONVECTION, WHICH CORRESPONDS TO A RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD PATTERN. 2209Z SSMI SWATH CONFIRMS THE
IMPROVING STRUCTURE, WITH A NICE ACTIVE COMMA OF STRONG CONVECTION
WRAPING .5 AROUND THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A BUOY LOCATED CLOSE TO THE
ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION ALLOWS FOR A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 998 HPA.
WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD. SUNDAY, THE
RIDGE BECOMES TOO FAR AWAY AND ITS INFLUENCE WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THUS SLOW DOWN BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. MONDAY, A SHORT
NORTH-WESTERN MOTION IS FORECAST BY THE MAIN MODELS, WEAKLY STEERED
FROM A DISTANCE BY THE NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARRIVING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FROM THIS FORECAST LEAD TIME, THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD
INCREASES, AS SOME MEMBERS AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
FORECASTING AN EASTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON THE FIRST OPTION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL TONIGHT, WITH STILL A GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER SUNDAY,
A WESTERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONSTRAINT COULD
AFFECT THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED TO DRIER ENVIRONMENTAL AIR. THUS, THE
SYSTEM INTENSITY COULD COME TO A HALT AS ITS DEVELOPMENT IS DISTURBED
BY INTERMITTENT DRY INTRUSIONS. FROM MONDAY EVENING, AS AN UPPER
TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, A STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY
WIND SHEAR SHOULD DEFINITELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
AT THE END OF THE TAUS, A SMALL INTENSITY REBOUND IS POSSIBLE THANKS TO
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES, AS THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR INTERACTS
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.
IMG_1378.PNG
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发表于 2020-2-15 09:27 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:T2.5

不出意外的话,应该马上就要升格16S
94S INVEST 200215 0000 16.3S 74.5E SHEM 35 1001

TPXS11 PGTW 150018
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (SE OF DIEGO GARCIA)
B. 14/2345Z
C. 15.50S
D. 74.25E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   ELIAS
20200215.0000.msg-1.ir.94S.INVEST.35kts.1000mb.16.3S.74.5E.100pc.jpg
20200214.2308.f16.91pct91h91v.94S.INVEST.30kts.1000mb.15.3S.74.9E.080pc.jpg
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29274
发表于 2020-2-15 10:10 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-15 10:53 编辑

WTXS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140851ZFEB2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150000Z --- NEAR 16.3S 74.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.3S 74.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151200Z --- 17.5S 74.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 18.6S 74.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 19.9S 74.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 20.3S 73.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 20.7S 73.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 22.3S 70.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 23.3S 68.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 16.6S 74.4E.
15FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
564 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
DEEPENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 142308Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE
THAT DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS ALSO
PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS, PGTW) AND T2.0 (30 KNOTS, KNES) AND IS
REFLECTIVE OF THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IN THE PAST 6 HOUR
EIR LOOP. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) THROUGH AN AREA FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT. TC 16S WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THIS NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE AND REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AS THE
CYCLONE REACHES A COL BETWEEN THE NER AND A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A
VERY SLOW SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STR ASSUMES STEERING.
CONCURRENTLY, INCREASING VWS (25-30 KTS) AND COOLER (27-28 CELSIUS)
SST WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS MORE
POLEWARD. BY TAU 120, TC 16S WILL BE REDUCED TO 35KTS. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, BUT SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTERWARD DUE TO THE BIFURCATION SCENARIO. IN VIEW OF
THIS AND THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WHICH IS NON-REPRESENTATIVE GIVEN THE BIFURCATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
151500Z AND 160300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FRANCISCO)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 140900).//
NNNN
sh1620.gif
16S_150000sair.jpg
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