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[2020] 查戈斯群岛以南热带气旋第9号“加贝奇尔”(16S.Gabekile) - 短暂风眼建立 - JTWC:75KT

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发表于 2020-2-16 10:33 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-16 11:00 编辑

WTXS32 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 74.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 74.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 19.0S 74.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 19.3S 74.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 19.6S 74.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 19.9S 74.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 20.2S 73.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 20.8S 72.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 21.6S 71.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 74.6E.
16FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GABEKILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
689 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 12HRS. RAIN BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE COMPACT
AND A FORMATIVE EYE HAS APPEARED ON AND OFF WHILE MAINTAINING A
FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE INTERMITTENT EYE IN THE EIR
LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 152221Z
GPM COLORIZED 36GHZ IMAGE. THE SYSTEM IS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH DUAL OUTFLOW, LOW 5-10KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
AND VERY WARM 29C ALONG-TRACK SST. IT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG
THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)TO THE EAST. TC 16S
WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AND SLOW
DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE STR RECEDES AND WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH
OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE CYCLONE WILL
BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY UP TO TAU 48. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH AND INCREASING VWS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE TC DOWN TO 40KTS
BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, A BUILDING STR TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH WILL
DRIVE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD. BY TAU 120, TC GABEKILE WILL
DISSIPATE. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN EXCESSIVELY WIDE DISAGREEMENT,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
161500Z AND 170300Z.//
NNNN
20200216.0054.f17.91h.16S.GABEKILE.75kts.981mb.18.4S.74.6E.055pc.jpg
20200216.0054.f17.91pct91h91v.16S.GABEKILE.75kts.981mb.18.4S.74.6E.055pc.jpg
WTXS32 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 003   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160000Z --- NEAR 18.4S 74.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.4S 74.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 19.0S 74.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 19.3S 74.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 19.6S 74.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 19.9S 74.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 20.2S 73.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 20.8S 72.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 21.6S 71.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 74.6E.
16FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GABEKILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
689 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND
INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 12HRS. RAIN BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE COMPACT
AND A FORMATIVE EYE HAS APPEARED ON AND OFF WHILE MAINTAINING A
FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE INTERMITTENT EYE IN THE EIR
LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 152221Z
GPM COLORIZED 36GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77KTS FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
DUAL OUTFLOW, LOW 5-10KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM 29C
ALONG-TRACK SST. IT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)TO THE EAST. TC 16S WILL BEGIN TO TURN
MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AND SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AS
THE STR RECEDES AND WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
UP TO TAU 48. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND INCREASING
VWS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE TC DOWN TO 40KTS BY TAU 48. AFTERWARD, A
BUILDING STR TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH WILL DRIVE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY
SOUTHWESTWARD. BY TAU 120, TC GABEKILE WILL DISSIPATE. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN EXCESSIVELY WIDE DISAGREEMENT, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM  SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.//
NNNN
sh1620.gif
16S_160000sair.jpg
全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:王 慧  签发:高拴柱   2020 年  02 月  16 日  10 时
“加贝奇尔”继续加强

西南印度洋热带气旋“加贝奇尔”(GABEKILE)加强为热带气旋级,其中心今天(16日)上午8点钟的位于毛里求斯马埃堡(MAHEBOURG)东偏北方向约1820公里的洋面上,就是南纬18.4度、东经74.8度,中心附近最大风力有12级(33米/秒,相当于我国的台风级),中心最低气压为980百帕。

预计,“加贝奇尔”将以每小时5-10公里左右的速度向南偏东方向移动,强度逐渐加强。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20200216020002400_XML_1.gif
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2020年2月16日08时00分)
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发表于 2020-2-16 15:05 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-16 15:17 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 160639
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/9/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GABEKILE)
2.A POSITION 2020/02/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 75.0 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 410 SW: 310 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/16 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2020/02/17 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/17 18 UTC: 19.7 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2020/02/18 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2020/02/18 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2020/02/19 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/20 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/21 06 UTC: 26.2 S / 67.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=4.5- CI=4.5+
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH
ONLY SOME SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS. HOWEVER MW IMAGERY
REVEAL SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE EYE PATTERN WITH A LIKELY EROSION OF
THE WESTERN EYEWALL. A SMAP PASS THIS MORNING NEAR 01Z SHOW NEAR 70 KT
WINDS. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY REDUCED TO 65 KT BASED ON MW
IMAGERY AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH A SATCON ESTIMATES AT 0418Z.
NO MAJOR CHANGESIN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY: THE FORWARD
MOTION IS CURRENTLY ON A GENERAL SOUTHWARDS TRACK OVER THE WESTERN
EDGE OF A MID LEVELS RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND AHEAD OF A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 70E. FROM MONDAY
THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS LINKED WITH THE
INTENSITY FORECAST. AT THIS FORECAST LEAD TIME, THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD
REMAINS LARGE, EVEN IF THE TWO MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOW
FORECASTING GLOBALLY IN AGREEMENT, FORECASTING A TRACK SLOW TO
ALMOST STATIONARY MONDAY (A NORTHWARDS OR NORTHWESTWARDS DRIFT
POSSIBLE), THEN A SOUTH TO SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK FROM TUESDAY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVOURABLE BUT MID-SHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE
CIMSS REVEAL 20-30 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR IMPEDING THE SYSTEM. THIS
MID-SHEAR IS ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION OVER THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE. THUS, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY COULD COME TO A HALT AS ITS
DEVELOPMENT IS DISTURBED BY INTERMITTENT DRY INTRUSIONS.
MONDAY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE AGAIN WITH AN EASING OF
THE SHEAR. NOTE THAT HOW THE SYSTEM WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS
TEMPORARILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DRIVE THE TRACK FORECAST.
CURRENTLY, IT IS EXPECTED THAT ABOUNDANCE OF DRY MID-LEVELS AIR WILL
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION. FROM MONDAY NIGHT, AS AN UPPER
TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, A STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY
WIND SHEAR SHOULD DEFINITELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.
IMG_1378.PNG
20200216.0600.msg-1.ir.16S.GABEKILE.75kts.980mb.19.2S.74.7E.100pc.jpg
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发表于 2020-2-16 15:12 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:T5.0

本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2020-2-16 16:58 编辑

16S GABEKILE 200216 0600 19.2S 74.7E SHEM 75 980

TXXS27 KNES 160603
TCSSIO
A.  16S (GABEKILE)
B.  16/0530Z
C.  19.2S
D.  75.1E
E.  ONE/MET-8
F.  T4.5/5.0/D1.5/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS
H.  REMARKS...EYE PATTERN WITH B EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED WITHIN
B YIELDS A DT OF 4.5 AFTER 1.0 SUBTRACTED FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET=4.5
AND PT=4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...KIM

TPXS11 PGTW 160622
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE)
B. 16/0600Z
C. 19.11S
D. 74.79E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T5.0/5.0/D2.5/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN B YIELDS
A DT OF 5.0. MET YIELDS A 5.0 AND PT A 4.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RICHARDSON
vis_lalo-animated.gif
ir_lalo-animated.gif
bd_lalo-animated.gif
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发表于 2020-2-16 15:59 | 显示全部楼层
又是一个平淡无奇的南太气旋。
话说南太今年c1真多
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发表于 2020-2-16 16:58 | 显示全部楼层
18-Yutu 发表于 2020-2-16 15:59
又是一个平淡无奇的南太气旋。
话说南太今年c1真多

这是南印度洋的
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发表于 2020-2-16 17:16 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-16 17:25 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:王 慧  签发:高拴柱   2020 年  02 月  16 日  18 时
“加贝奇尔”强度维持

西南印度洋热带气旋“加贝奇尔”(GABEKILE)中心今天(16日)下午2点钟的位于毛里求斯马埃堡(MAHEBOURG)东偏北方向约1815公里的洋面上,就是南纬19.3度、东经75.0度,中心附近最大风力有12级(33米/秒,相当于我国的台风级),中心最低气压为983百帕。

预计,“加贝奇尔”将以每小时15公里左右的速度向南偏东方向移动,强度维持并逐渐减弱。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20200216100002400_XML_1.png
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2020年2月16日14时00分)
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Severe Tropical Storm

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发表于 2020-2-16 20:40 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-16 21:14 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 161229
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/9/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)
2.A POSITION 2020/02/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 74.9 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 9 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 410 SW: 310 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/17 00 UTC: 20.7 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/17 12 UTC: 20.4 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2020/02/18 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/18 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/02/19 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/02/19 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/20 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/21 12 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=4.0- CI=4.5-
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
EYE (WARM SPOT) IS NO MORE PRESENT ON VISIBLE (IR) IMAGERY. MW DATA
SUGGEST THAT THE INNER-CORE IS STILL WELL DEFINED ALTHOUGH A WEAKNESS
STILL EXIST WITHIN THE WESTERN EYEWALL. SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 65 TO 80 KT AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE RANGE FROM 50 TO 60 KT. THE FINAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.
THE SOUTHWARDS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO STOP TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL. TOMORROW, THE TWO
MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING A SLOW TO ALMOST
STATIONARY MOTION WITHIN THE BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION (A NORTHWARDS
OR NORTHWESTWARDS DRIFT POSSIBLE), FOLLOWED BY A RESUME OF A
SOUTHWARDS OR SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK FROM WEDNESDAY WITHIN A LOW
LEVELS STEERING FLOW.
DRY AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-SHEAR INCREASE HAS STARTED
TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM. FIRST A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED
FOLLOWED BY A MORE AGGRESSIVE WEAKENING TREND TOMORROW AS
SUGGESTED BY THE MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE. AS SHEAR AND MID LEVELS DRY
AIR ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH, THERE IS ONLY LOW CHANCE
FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EUROPEAN
MODEL SUGGEST THAT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM MAY BENEFIT
FROM A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE OF THE SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE
WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THIS TIME, THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.
IMG_1378.PNG
20200216.1130.f16.91h.16S.GABEKILE.75kts.980mb.19.2S.74.7E.085pc.jpg
20200216.1130.f16.91pct91h91v.16S.GABEKILE.75kts.980mb.19.2S.74.7E.085pc.jpg
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发表于 2020-2-16 22:50 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-16 23:05 编辑

WTXS32 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161200Z --- NEAR 20.2S 75.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 170 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 75.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 20.8S 74.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 21.3S 74.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 21.8S 74.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 22.3S 73.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 23.2S 73.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 24.2S 72.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 75.0E.
16FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GABEKILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
799 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) REVEALS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH SOME EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A PARTIAL EYEWALL IN A 161141Z GMI
COLORIZED 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL 75 KT INTENSITY IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, AS
EVIDENCED BY MULTI-AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK FIX INTENSITIES RANGING
FROM AROUND T4.0 TO T5.0 (65 TO 90 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), CURRENTLY AT AROUND 20 KTS BUT WITH MUCH STRONGER
VWS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). ALSO, THERE IS A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT MAY BE BEGINNING TO IMPACT
THE SYSTEM, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI SUGGESTS VWS MAY BE INCREASING
AND THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY POLEWARD FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER, WITH THOSE TWO STEERING INFLUENCES ALONG WITH
ANOTHER STR SITUATED BEHIND THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, THE STEERING
ENVIRONMENT IS VERY COMPLEX. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
POLEWARD, VWS WILL INCREASE AND 16S SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY UNTIL
DISSIPATING BY TAU 96. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN, IT GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE
COAMPS-TC WITH GFS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS BECAUSE THE TRACK FROM THAT
INTENSITY MODEL MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREDICTED STORM TRACK.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND,
SUBSEQUENTLY, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
170300Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN
AEF169F8-B771-434E-8EEF-CD83204C51C8.gif
F76E3C4D-FD71-4B47-AF1B-018FADA06095.jpeg
F879FA4F-60FA-4DB5-9314-288CF99EB57E.jpeg
BE484561-19F7-43E6-8314-EDA319FB2E0E.jpeg
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青葱的岁月留下无数精彩,时间的行囊被装满了未来

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发表于 2020-2-17 03:10 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2020-2-17 03:32 编辑

FKIO20 FMEE 161821
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20200216/1821Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: GABEKILE
ADVISORY NR: 2020/07
OBS PSN: 16/1800Z S2028 E07503
CB: WI 130NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL560
MOV: S 01KT
C: 983HPA
MAX WIND: 60KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 17/0000Z S2024 E07454
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 55KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 17/0600Z S2018 E07447
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 50KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 17/1200Z S2009 E07445
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 17/1800Z S1959 E07442
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 40KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200217/0000Z=

WTIO30 FMEE 161835
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/9/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)
2.A POSITION 2020/02/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 75.1 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 410 SW: 310 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/17 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/17 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/18 06 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/18 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/02/19 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/19 18 UTC: 22.3 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/20 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 70.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=4.0+
THE CLOUD PATTERN EVOLVED FREQUENTLY DURING THE LAST HOURS, WITH THE
SHORT APPARITION OF AN EYE PATTERN IN INFRARED IMAGERY. HOWEVER SINCE
17Z, THIS STRUCTURE DISAPPEARED, REPLACED BY A STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND
IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT (SUMMITS AROUND -86C). THIS LAST CHANGE
SEEMES RELATED TO THE INCREASE OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. 1327Z SSMIS SHOW A DETERIORATION OF THE INNER CORE. AMONG LAST
OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATION, A PARTIAL SMAP GAVE 68KT AT 1256Z. IN
THIS CONTEXT, INTENSITY IS HELD TO 60KT EVEN IF IT IS POSSIBLY A BIT
HIGHER.
THE SOUTHWARDS MOTION CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN WITH A POSSIBLE COME
BACK NORTHWARD ON THE LAST IMAGES. IN THE FOLLOWING HOURS, THE MAIN
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING A SLOW MOTION PROBABLY
NORTH-WESTERWARD WITHIN THE BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION, FOLLOWED BY A
RESUME OF A SOUTHWARDS OR SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK FROM WEDNESDAY WITHIN
A LOW LEVELS STEERING FLOW.
DRY AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-SHEAR INCREASE HAS STARTED
TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM. THE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN THE NEXT HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY THE MOST RELIABLE
GUIDANCE.
IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, UNCERTAINTY BECOMES SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE
TWO SCENARIOS SUGGESTED BY THE GUIDANCE. IN ON CASE (GFS 12Z, SEVERAL
EPS MEMBERS), THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD TRACK MOSTLY WESTWARD WHILE
DISAPPEARING. IN THE OTHER ONE (IFS AND SEVERAL OF THE MEMBER OF THE
EPS) GABEKILE COULD BE INCORPORATED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH CREATED BY
AN UPPER TROUGH AT SOUTH, AND THEN START A NEW DEEPENING PHASE WITH
POSSIBLE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL PROCESSES UNDER THE TROUGH. LACKING
A REAL CHOICE OF SCENARIO THE PRESENT FORECAST IS A INTERMEDIATE
FORECAST.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.=
SWI_20192020.png
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发表于 2020-2-17 08:55 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-17 08:56 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 170021
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/9/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)
2.A POSITION 2020/02/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 75.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 410 SW: 310 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/17 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2020/02/18 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2020/02/18 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/19 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
60H: 2020/02/19 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
72H: 2020/02/20 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/21 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.5 CI=4.0+
THE CLOUD PATTERN STRONGLY DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
UNDERGOING SEVERE NORTH-WESTERLY WESTERLY WIND SHEAR (AROUND 30KT
IN MID SHEAR ACCORDING TO CIMSS). 2244Z SSMIS CONFIRMS THAT THE CENTER IS
NORTH OF THE CDO.
THE SOUTHWARDS MOTION STOPPED IN THE LATE HOURS, AND THE CENTER SINCE
BARELY MOVED. IN THE FOLLOWING HOURS, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE FORECASTING A SLOW MOTION WITH PROBABLY A NORTH-WESTERWARD
TREDN WITHIN THE BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION, FOLLOWED BY A RESUME OF A
SOUTHWARDS OR SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK FROM WEDNESDAY WITHIN A LOW
LEVELS STEERING FLOW.
DRY AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR WILL
LIKELY ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING TREND IN THE NEXT HOURS AS SUGGESTED
BY THE MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE. THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX COULD BECOME
APPARENT TODAY.
IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, UNCERTAINTY BECOMES SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE
TWO SCENARIOS AMONG BY THE GUIDANCE. IN ON CASE (GFS 18Z, SOME EPS
MEMBERS), THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD TRACK MOSTLY WESTWARD WHILE
DISAPPEARING. IN THE OTHER ONE (IFS AND SEVERAL OF THE MEMBER OF THE
EPS) GABEKILE COULD BE INCORPORATED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH CREATED BY
AN UPPER TROUGH AT SOUTH, AND THEN START A NEW DEEPENING PHASE WITH
POSSIBLE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL PROCESSES UNDER THE TROUGH.DUE TO
THE ALCK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND THE LAST TREND IN THE GUIDANCES,
WINDS IN THIS SCENARIO SHOULD NOT EXCEED GALE FORCE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS STILL AN INTERMEDIATE SCENARIO (AS IN TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST)
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.3.5
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