台风论坛

 找回密码
 立即注册
搜索
热搜: 台风
楼主: 三旋共舞

[2020] 查戈斯群岛以南热带气旋第9号“加贝奇尔”(16S.Gabekile) - 短暂风眼建立 - JTWC:75KT

[复制链接]

97

主题

7251

帖子

3万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

Sing For You~

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
30854
发表于 2020-2-17 08:55 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-17 08:56 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 170021
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/9/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)
2.A POSITION 2020/02/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 75.1 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 410 SW: 310 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/17 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2020/02/18 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2020/02/18 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/19 00 UTC: 20.2 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
60H: 2020/02/19 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
72H: 2020/02/20 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/21 00 UTC: 23.2 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.5 CI=4.0+
THE CLOUD PATTERN STRONGLY DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
UNDERGOING SEVERE NORTH-WESTERLY WESTERLY WIND SHEAR (AROUND 30KT
IN MID SHEAR ACCORDING TO CIMSS). 2244Z SSMIS CONFIRMS THAT THE CENTER IS
NORTH OF THE CDO.
THE SOUTHWARDS MOTION STOPPED IN THE LATE HOURS, AND THE CENTER SINCE
BARELY MOVED. IN THE FOLLOWING HOURS, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE FORECASTING A SLOW MOTION WITH PROBABLY A NORTH-WESTERWARD
TREDN WITHIN THE BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION, FOLLOWED BY A RESUME OF A
SOUTHWARDS OR SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK FROM WEDNESDAY WITHIN A LOW
LEVELS STEERING FLOW.
DRY AIR INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR WILL
LIKELY ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING TREND IN THE NEXT HOURS AS SUGGESTED
BY THE MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE. THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX COULD BECOME
APPARENT TODAY.
IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, UNCERTAINTY BECOMES SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE
TWO SCENARIOS AMONG BY THE GUIDANCE. IN ON CASE (GFS 18Z, SOME EPS
MEMBERS), THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD TRACK MOSTLY WESTWARD WHILE
DISAPPEARING. IN THE OTHER ONE (IFS AND SEVERAL OF THE MEMBER OF THE
EPS) GABEKILE COULD BE INCORPORATED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH CREATED BY
AN UPPER TROUGH AT SOUTH, AND THEN START A NEW DEEPENING PHASE WITH
POSSIBLE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL PROCESSES UNDER THE TROUGH.DUE TO
THE ALCK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL AND THE LAST TREND IN THE GUIDANCES,
WINDS IN THIS SCENARIO SHOULD NOT EXCEED GALE FORCE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS STILL AN INTERMEDIATE SCENARIO (AS IN TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECAST)
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.3.5
IMG_1378.PNG
回复

使用道具 举报

97

主题

7251

帖子

3万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

Sing For You~

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
30854
发表于 2020-2-17 09:51 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-17 10:30 编辑

WTXS32 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170000Z --- NEAR 20.3S 75.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 75.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 20.3S 75.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 01 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 20.4S 74.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 20.7S 74.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 21.2S 74.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 23.6S 72.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 75.2E.
17FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GABEKILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
809 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AND
HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND SLIGHT
UNRAVELING OF THE RAIN BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND A SERIES OF MICROWAVE
IMAGES WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURES THAT INDICATE A TIGHT
LOOPING MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON OBJECTIVE AND
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT INDICATE A WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM
HAS REACHED THE COL BETWEEN THE STEERING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER)
AND A DEVELOPING LOW-LAYERED (700MB DOWN) SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHWEST. CONCURRENTLY, AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH JUST
TO THE WEST IS BEGINNING TO DIG INTO THE NER AND CAUSING SUBSIDENCE
ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF TC 16S. ALTHOUGH SST VALUES REMAIN WARM
AT 28-29C AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS ROBUST, THE SUBSIDENT EFFECT
AND INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS OVERALL CAUSING
CONVECTIVE DECAY RESULTING IN THE WEAKENING TREND. BY TAU 36, TC 16S
WILL BE REDUCED TO 45KTS AS IT BEGINS TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD
OUT OF THE COL, DRIVEN BY THE STR. COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING VWS
WILL ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN WIDELY SPREAD TO OVER 300NM AT TAU 72,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
171500Z AND 180300Z.//
NNNN
sh1620.gif
16S_170000sair.jpg
全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:刘 达  签发:许映龙   2020 年  02 月  17 日  10 时
“加贝奇尔”已减弱为强热带风暴

西南印度洋热带气旋“加贝奇尔”(GABEKILE)已于今天(17日,北京时,下同)凌晨减弱为强热带风暴,上午8点钟其中心位于毛里求斯马埃堡(MAHEBOURG)偏东方向约1820公里的西南印度洋洋面上,就是南纬20.4度、东经75.1度,中心附近最大风力有10级(28米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为986百帕。

预计,“加贝奇尔”将稳定少动,强度逐渐减弱。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20200217020002400_XML_1.gif
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2020年2月17日08时00分)
回复

使用道具 举报

32

主题

2128

帖子

5760

积分

强台风

青葱的岁月留下无数精彩,时间的行囊被装满了未来

积分
5760
发表于 2020-2-17 14:48 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2020-2-17 14:55 编辑

20200217144814-SWI_20192020.png
FKIO20 FMEE 170608
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20200217/0608Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: GABEKILE
ADVISORY NR: 2020/09
OBS PSN: 17/0600Z S2019 E07503
CB: WI 100NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL520
MOV: WNW 01KT
C: 998HPA
MAX WIND: 50KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 17/1200Z S2026 E07459
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 48KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 17/1800Z S2026 E07451
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 18/0000Z S2016 E07436
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 18/0600Z S2005 E07413
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 35KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200217/1200Z=

WTIO30 FMEE 170644
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/9/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)
2.A POSITION 2020/02/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3 S / 75.1 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 300 SW: 220 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/17 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/18 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/18 18 UTC: 20.3 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/19 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2020/02/19 18 UTC: 22.6 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/02/20 06 UTC: 23.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/21 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.0 CI=3.5
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO DEGRADE WITH NOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
CIRCULATION AND A CONVECTION ONLY PRESENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION.
AS EXPECTED, THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED DOWN AND SEEMS TO OPERATE A LOOP.
IN THE FOLLOWING HOURS, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE FORECASTING
A SLOW MOTION WITH PROBABLY A NORTH-WESTERWARD TREND WITHIN THE
BAROMETRIC COL SITUATION, FOLLOWED BY A RESUME OF A SOUTHWARDS OR
SOUTH-WESTWARDS TRACK FROM WEDNESDAY WITHIN A LOW LEVELS STEERING
FLOW.
TODAY IN THE MARGINS OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
EXPERIENCE A TEMPORARY DROP IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. BUT FROM THIS
NIGHT THE CONSTRAINT SHOULD QUICKLY BE REINFORCED DUE TO UNDULATION
OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET FORCED BY A DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE ANOMALY. THE
PREFERRED SCENARIO FOR INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A REGULAR WEAKENING
OF THE CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT DAYS DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. NOTE THAT THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHOWS THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ALTITUDE TROUGH AND THE
CLOCKWISE LOW LEVEL ANOMALY WITH A TEMPORARY DEEPENING DURING
WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT FOLLOWED IN THIS INTENSITY FORECAST.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.3.5=
回复

使用道具 举报

97

主题

7251

帖子

3万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

Sing For You~

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
30854
发表于 2020-2-17 16:40 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-17 16:46 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:刘 达  签发:许映龙   2020 年  02 月  17 日  18 时
“加贝奇尔”强度继续减弱
西南印度洋强热带风暴“加贝奇尔”(GABEKILE)的中心今天(17日,北京时,下同)下午2点钟位于毛里求斯马埃堡(MAHEBOURG)偏东方向约1820公里的洋面上,就是南纬20.3度、东经75.1度,中心附近最大风力有10级(26米/秒,相当于我国的强热带风暴级),中心最低气压为998百帕。

预计,“加贝奇尔”将稳定少动,强度继续减弱。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20200217100002400_XML_1.gif
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2020年2月17日14时00分)
回复

使用道具 举报

97

主题

7251

帖子

3万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

Sing For You~

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
30854
发表于 2020-2-17 20:30 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-17 20:50 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 171206
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/9/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)
2.A POSITION 2020/02/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.4 S / 74.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 300 SW: 220 NW: 70
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/18 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2020/02/18 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 73.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/02/19 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/02/19 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/02/20 00 UTC: 25.1 S / 71.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
72H: 2020/02/20 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/21 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DISSIPATING
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
UNDER THE EFFECT OF DRY AIR. DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALMOST DISAPPEARED
FROM THE CIRCULATION WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER. ONLY A FEW BURSTS OF
CONVECTION WITH RELATIVELY WARM TOPS PERSIST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT.
THE SYSTEM MOVES AGAIN SLOWLY WESTWARD. TUESDAY NIGHT, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD DIVE SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE BELT OF LOW
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES. FROM THURSDAY, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW
ANTICYCLONIC CELL IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, GABEKILE AS IT FILLS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND CURVE WESTWARD. THE MODELS ARE NOW RELATIVELY
AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO.
TODAY IN THE MARGINS OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET, THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES A
TEMPORARY DROP IN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. BUT FROM THIS NIGHT THE
CONSTRAINT SHOULD QUICKLY BE REINFORCED DUE TO UNDULATION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL JET FORCED BY A DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE ANOMALY. THE
PREFERRED SCENARIO FOR INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A REGULAR
WEAKENING OF THE CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT DAYS DUE TO THE STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND DRY AIR ADVECTION. NOTE THAT
THE EUROPEAN MODEL SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE ALTITUDE TROUGH AND THE CLOCKWISE LOW LEVEL ANOMALY WITH A
TEMPORARY DEEPENING DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT FOLLOWED
IN THIS INTENSITY FORECAST.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.3.5
510659D4-BB09-4F7C-AF49-6A195F69CFBE.png
回复

使用道具 举报

97

主题

7251

帖子

3万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

Sing For You~

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
30854
发表于 2020-2-17 22:55 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-17 23:06 编辑

WTXS32 PGTW 171500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171200Z --- NEAR 20.3S 75.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 75.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 20.4S 75.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 20.8S 74.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 21.9S 74.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 23.6S 73.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 25.6S 71.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 20.3S 75.3E.
17FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GABEKILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
810 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
01 KNOT (KT) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS MOSTLY EXPOSED IN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED OVER 100 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION WHICH WAS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY A NOTCH FEATURE IN A 171116Z SSMIS COLORIZED 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. STRONG (OVER 25 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND SUBSIDENCE FROM A NEARBY MIDLATITUDE TROUGH ARE
OVERCOMING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE. TC 16S IS
QUASI-STATIONARY DUE TO BEING LOCATED IN A COL BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND ANOTHER TO THE WEST.  BY TAU 24, CHANGES
IN THE STR PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN ACCELERATING TO
THE SOUTHWEST. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM UNTIL DISSIPATING BY TAU 72, IF NOT SOONER.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, LENDING
FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.//
NNNN
sh1620.gif
16S_161200sair.jpg
回复

使用道具 举报

32

主题

2128

帖子

5760

积分

强台风

青葱的岁月留下无数精彩,时间的行囊被装满了未来

积分
5760
发表于 2020-2-18 03:17 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2020-2-18 03:22 编辑

20200218031204-SWI_20192020.png
FKIO20 FMEE 171812
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20200217/1812Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: GABEKILE
ADVISORY NR: 2020/11
OBS PSN: 17/1800Z S2011 E07532
CB: WI 250NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL450
MOV: ENE 01KT
C: 995HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 18/0000Z S2021 E07518
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 33KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 18/0600Z S2030 E07500
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 30KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 18/1200Z S2040 E07437
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 28KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 18/1800Z S2102 E07413
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 25KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: NO MSG EXP=

WTIO30 FMEE 171821
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/9/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)
2.A POSITION 2020/02/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 75.5 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 350 SW: 110 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/18 06 UTC: 20.5 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
24H: 2020/02/18 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW
36H: 2020/02/19 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/02/19 18 UTC: 24.6 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/02/20 06 UTC: 25.7 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/02/20 18 UTC: 25.5 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/21 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY:
UNDER THE EFFECT OF DRY AIR, DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALMOST DISAPPEARED
FROM THE CIRCULATION WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER. ONLY A FEW BURSTS OF
CONVECTION PERSIST IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. COMPLETE HY-2B SCATT
PASS NEAR 1330Z AND PARTIAL ASCAT-B DATA AT 1628Z SHOW ONLY 30 KT
WINDS WITHIN THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 35 KT WHICH IS SUPPOSED TO EXIST CLOSE TO THE CENTER AND
ONLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
MW DATA OF THIS EVENING HAS ALLOWED TO RELOCATE THE CENTER MORE TO
THE EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. IN FACT, THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED
EASTWARDS TODAY AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE QUASI-STAT AGAIN CURRENTLY. A
WESTWARDS OR SOUTHWESTWARDS MOTION SHOULD RESUME TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY
A SOUTHWARDS TURN TUESDAY NIGHT TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE BELT OF LOW
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURES DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVELS MID-LAT TROUGH
FORCING. FROM THURSDAY, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW ANTICYCLONIC CELL
IN THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, GABEKILE AS IT FILLS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND
CURVE WESTWARD. THE MODELS ARE NOW RATHER IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO.
DRY AIR AND SHEAR HAD TAKEN ITS TOLL ON GABEKILE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON. WEDNESDAY THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVELS TROUGH AND THE CLOCKWISE LOW
LEVEL ANOMALY WITH A TEMPORARY DEEPENING IS PRESENT AMONGST SEVERAL
RELIABLE GUIDANCE (IFS, GFS, HWRF). BY THAT TIME THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL WITH AN ASYMMETRIC AND SHALLOW WARM
CORE.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED TERRITORIES.=
回复

使用道具 举报

97

主题

7251

帖子

3万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

Sing For You~

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
30854
发表于 2020-2-18 08:55 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-18 09:26 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 180029
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/9/20192020
1.A REMNANT LOW 9 (GABEKILE)
2.A POSITION 2020/02/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.5 S / 75.7 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 350 SW: 110 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/18 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW
24H: 2020/02/19 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW
36H: 2020/02/19 12 UTC: 23.7 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/02/20 00 UTC: 25.5 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/02/20 12 UTC: 25.2 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/02/21 00 UTC: 24.9 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT: THE LOW LEVEL
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF SOME INTERMITTENT BURST OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE
FINAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT IN EXTRAPOLATION OF SOME PREVIOUS
SCATT DATA.
BASED ON LATEST RELIABLE MW FIX, THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED IN A GENERAL
SOUTHWARDS DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. A WESTWARDS OR SOUTHWESTWARDS
MOTION SHOULD RESUME LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHWARDS TURN
TUESDAY NIGHT TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE BELT OF LOW LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURES DRIVEN BY A POWERFUL UPPER LEVELS MID-LAT TROUGH FORCING.
FROM THURSDAY, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW ANTICYCLONIC CELL IN THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM, GABEKILE AS IT FILLS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND CURVE
WESTWARD. THE MODELS ARE NOW RATHER IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
DRY AIR AND SHEAR HAD TAKEN ITS TOLL ON GABEKILE. WEDNESDAY THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVELS TROUGH AND THE
CLOCKWISE LOW LEVEL ANOMALY WITH A TEMPORARY DEEPENING IS PRESENT
AMONGST SEVERAL RELIABLE GUIDANCE (IFS, GFS, HWRF). BY THAT TIME THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL WITH AN ASYMMETRIC AND
SHALLOW WARM CORE.
LAST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION.
IMG_1477.PNG
回复

使用道具 举报

32

主题

2128

帖子

5760

积分

强台风

青葱的岁月留下无数精彩,时间的行囊被装满了未来

积分
5760
发表于 2020-2-18 09:55 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2020-2-18 09:57 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:刘 达  签发:许映龙   2020 年  02 月  18 日  10 时
“加贝奇尔”已减弱为热带低压
西南印度洋强热带风暴“加贝奇尔”(GABEKILE)已于今天(18日,北京时,下同)凌晨减弱为热带低压,上午8点钟其中心位于毛里求斯马埃堡(MAHEBOURG)偏东方向约1880公里的西南印度洋洋面上,就是南纬20.5度、东经75.7度,中心附近最大风力有7级(15米/秒,相当于我国的热带低压级),中心最低气压为997百帕。

预计,“加贝奇尔”将以每小时4公里左右的速度向偏南方向移动,强度继续减弱。

(注:这是关于“加贝尔奇”的最后一次监测报告。)
20200218095704-SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20200218020002400_XML_1.gif
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2020年2月18日08时00分)
回复

使用道具 举报

97

主题

7251

帖子

3万

积分

论坛版主-副热带高压

Sing For You~

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
30854
发表于 2020-2-18 10:04 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-18 16:21 编辑

WTXS32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 007   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180000Z --- NEAR 20.5S 75.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 75.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 21.0S 75.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 21.9S 74.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 23.8S 73.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 25.1S 72.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 75.7E.
18FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GABEKILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
827 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A MOSTLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. BASED ON THE EIR
IMAGERY AND A 180005Z SSMIS COLORIZED 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A
NOTCH FEATURE, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON  
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BY PGTW AND KNES
SUPPORTED BY A 171629Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTING A REGION OF
30-34 KT WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HIGH (GREATER THAN 25 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). THESE CONDITIONS, COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH, CREATE AN OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE PAST
TWELVE HOURS, TC 16S HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY, LOCATED IN A COL
BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST AND WEST. AS
THE STR PATTERN SHIFTS, TC 16S WILL BEGIN ACCELERATING TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN THE NEAR-TERM, WARM SST AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL
WORK TO LIMIT THE WEAKENING EFFECTS OF THE HIGH VWS AND SUBSIDENCE.
HOWEVER, BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL EXPERIENCE COOLER (LESS THAN 26
CELSIUS) SST, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU
48, IF NOT SOONER. WITHIN THE COL, THERE IS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, ONCE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRANSIT
SOUTHWEST, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, PLACING
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 190300Z.//
NNNN
sh1620.gif
F7FD8296-149E-4DCA-9389-8824A081ACA1.jpeg
回复

使用道具 举报

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 立即注册

本版积分规则

Archiver|手机版|小黑屋|台风论坛 ( 沪ICP备11041484号-3 )

GMT+8, 2020-4-9 18:06

Powered by Discuz! X3.4 Licensed

© 2001-2017 Comsenz Inc.

快速回复 返回顶部 返回列表