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[2020] 查戈斯群岛以南热带气旋第9号“加贝奇尔”(16S.Gabekile) - 短暂风眼建立 - JTWC:75KT

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强台风

It's Always With Me.

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发表于 2020-2-15 14:27 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-15 16:35 编辑

FKIO20 FMEE 150624
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20200215/0624Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: GABEKILE
ADVISORY NR: 2020/01
OBS PSN: 15/0600Z S1626 E07442
CB: WI 60NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL500
MOV: S 05KT
C: 994HPA
MAX WIND: 40KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 15/1200Z S1711 E07446
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 15/1800Z S1753 E07449
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 50KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 16/0000Z S1830 E07452
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 48KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 16/0600Z S1904 E07452
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 45KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200215/1200Z=

WTIO30 FMEE 150649
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/9/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)
2.A POSITION 2020/02/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4 S / 74.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 90 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 80
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 0
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/15 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/16 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2020/02/16 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2020/02/17 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2020/02/17 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2020/02/18 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/19 06 UTC: 20.0 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/20 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SINCE THIS MORNING WITH A BUILDING
BANDING FEATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED IN EVERY
SECTORS BASED ON THE CIRRUS CANOPY. MW DATA AND SCATT DATA FROM ASCAT
THIS MORNING REVEAL AN ASYMMETRIC WIND AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.
THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT ON THE HIGH END OF ALL AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT RANGE BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.0. THE SYSTEM HAS
THEREFORE BEEN NAMED GABEKILE BY THE NWS OF MAURITIUS AT 05 UTC.
THE FORWARD MOTION IS CURRENTLY ON A GENERAL SOUTHWARDS TRACK OVER
THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID LEVELS RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND AHEAD
OF A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 70E. FROM
MONDAY THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS LINKED
WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE MAIN PHILOSOPHY REMAIN THAT A
WEAKENING SYSTEM COULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-WEST. AT THIS FORECAST LEASTIME, THE
ENSEMBLE SPREAD INCREASES, AS SOME MEMBERS AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN EASTWARD TRACK.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL TONIGHT, WITH STILL A GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER SUNDAY,
A WESTERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONSTRAINT COULD
AFFECT THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED TO DRIER ENVIRONMENTAL AIR. THUS, THE
SYSTEM INTENSITY COULD COME TO A HALT AS ITS DEVELOPMENT IS DISTURBED
BY INTERMITTENT DRY INTRUSIONS. FROM MONDAY EVENING, AS AN UPPER
TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, A STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY
WIND SHEAR SHOULD DEFINITELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.
Gabekile.png
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热带低压-GW

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QQ
发表于 2020-2-15 16:12 | 显示全部楼层
截屏2020-02-15下午4.10.32.png
开眼,系统还有不少发展时间,后期减弱后EC和GFS都认为会西北折
然而并不怎么看好未来强度
今年南半球需要再来一个定于一尊的系统
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强台风

青葱的岁月留下无数精彩,时间的行囊被装满了未来

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发表于 2020-2-15 17:35 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 2018.26W 于 2020-2-15 17:38 编辑

全球热带气旋监测报告
预报:聂高臻  签发:董林   2020 年  02 月  15 日  18 时
“弗朗西斯科”减弱后再次加强
西南印度洋热带风暴“弗朗西斯科”(FRANCISCO)于昨天夜间减弱为热带低压,今天(15日)下午再次加强为热带风暴级,今天下午2点钟(北京时,下同)其中心位于马达加斯加马哈努鲁(MAHANORO)偏东方向约10公里的近海海面上,就是南纬19.9度、东经48.9度,中心附近最大风力有8级(18米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为997百帕。

预计,“弗朗西斯科”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向偏西方向移动,于今天下午在马达加斯加东部沿海登陆,而后逐渐减弱消失。


卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2020年2月15日14时00分)

西南印度洋热带气旋“加贝奇尔”生成

西南印度洋热带气旋“加贝奇尔”(GABEKILE)已于今天(15日)下午在西南印度洋洋面上生成,今天下午2点钟其中心位于毛里求斯马埃堡(MAHEBOURG)东偏北方向约1850公里的洋面上,就是南纬16.4度、东经74.7度,中心附近最大风力有8级(20米/秒,相当于我国的热带风暴级),中心最低气压为994百帕。

预计,“加贝奇尔”将以每小时5-10公里左右的速度向偏南方向移动,强度逐渐加强。
SEVP_NMC_TCMO_SFER_EME_AGLB_L89_P9_20200215100002400_XML_2.gif
卫星红外监测图像

(北京时间2020年2月15日14时00分)
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发表于 2020-2-15 20:55 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-15 21:39 编辑

IMG_1378.PNG
WTIO30 FMEE 151308
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/9/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)
2.A POSITION 2020/02/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 74.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/16 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/16 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/17 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2020/02/17 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2020/02/18 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2020/02/18 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/19 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/20 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
TRANSITION FROM A BANDING CLOUD PATTERN TO A CDO ASSOCIATED WITH VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE SSMI PASS AT 1043Z REVEAL THAT AN EYE PATTERN IS
BUILDING AT THE MID-LEVELS. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE SET AT 50 KT ON THE
HIGH END OF ALL AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT RANGE
BETWEEN 3.0 AND 3.5.
THE FORWARD MOTION IS CURRENTLY ON A GENERAL SOUTHWARDS TRACK OVER
THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID LEVELS RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND AHEAD
OF A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 70E. FROM
MONDAY THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS LINKED
WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AT THIS FORECAST LEAD TIME, THE ENSEMBLE
SPREAD INCREASES, AS SOME MEMBERS AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
FORECASTING AN EASTWARD TRACK.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL TONIGHT, WITH STILL A GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER BEFORE
SUNDAY MORNING, A WESTERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONSTRAINT COULD AFFECT THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED TO DRIER
ENVIRONMENTAL AIR. THUS, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY COULD COME TO A HALT AS
ITS DEVELOPMENT IS DISTURBED BY INTERMITTENT DRY INTRUSIONS. GIVEN THE
RECENT TREND, THE SYSTEM COULD BE CLOSE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
(HURRICANE) STRENGTH BY THAT TIME. MONDAY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE AGAIN WITH AN EASING OF THE SHEAR. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALL FOR A HALT ON THE WEAKENING TREND. NOTE THAT HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
BENEFIT FROM THIS TEMPORARILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DRIVE THE
TRACK FORECAST. FROM MONDAY NIGHT, AS AN UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM
THE SOUTH-WEST, A STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD
DEFINITELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.
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发表于 2020-2-15 21:25 | 显示全部楼层

SSD:T3.5 JTWC:T3.0

本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2020-2-15 21:55 编辑

发展迅速,底层风眼已经建立
16S GABEKILE 200215 1200 17.1S 74.1E SHEM 45 995

TXXS27 KNES 151225
TCSSIO
A.  16S (GABEKILE)
B.  15/1130Z
C.  17.1S
D.  74.1E
E.  THREE/MET-8
F.  T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI
H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY 8/10 BANDING ON A LOG-10 SCALE
DT=3.5 MET=3.0 PT=3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    15/1043Z 17.0S 74.2E SSMI
...FISHER

TPXS11 PGTW 151228
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE)
B. 15/1200Z
C. 17.01S
D. 74.17E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .75 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
   RICHARDSON
vis_lalo-animated.gif
ir_lalo-animated.gif
bd_lalo-animated.gif
20200215.1143.f16.91pct91h91v.16S.GABEKILE.45kts.995mb.17.1S.74.1E.065pc.jpg
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发表于 2020-2-15 22:25 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-15 22:41 编辑

WTXS32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE) WARNING NR 002   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151200Z --- NEAR 17.1S 74.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 74.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 18.3S 74.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 19.2S 74.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 19.8S 73.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 20.2S 73.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 20.7S 72.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 21.2S 71.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 74.1E.
15FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16S (GABEKILE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
607 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH AN APPROXIMATE 100 NM
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND TIGHT BANDING. TIGHT CYCLONIC CURVATURE AND
A PARTIAL EYEWALL IN A 151143Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDES
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK FIX INTENSITY OF T3.0 (45 KTS).
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, A POCKET OF LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE MAKE THE
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. TC 16S IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). A SECOND STR,
LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM AND CAUSE THE TRACK TO SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24,
HIGH VWS WILL CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM
AND COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT MAKE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND
INTENSIFY FORECAST QUITE HIGH. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A
VERY LARGE SPREAD. SEVERAL MEMBERS SHOW A TRACK WITH A SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT (GALWEM, UKMET, UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN) WHILE THE OTHERS HAVE A
WESTWARD COMPONENT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRACKERS WITH
A WESTWARD COMPONENT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z AND 161500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FRANCISCO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//
NNNN
BA29F06A-F913-47D3-9A02-CDB76E7DB816.gif
7B836B24-5893-4035-BCCE-676596709D0F.jpeg
ACFAEF7C-5C4A-44BB-B88F-881B7FB87C06.jpeg
3F3A2823-4E64-418D-A0E6-82A5F81451B1.jpeg
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发表于 2020-2-16 00:06 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:T3.5

TPXS11 PGTW 151514
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE)
B. 15/1430Z
C. 17.24S
D. 74.00E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T3.5/3.5/D2.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG YIELDS A DT
OF 4.5. MET YIELDS A 3.0 AND PT A 3.5. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   15/1143Z  17.03S  74.20E  SSMS
   RICHARDSON
20200215.1430.msg-1.ir.16S.GABEKILE.45kts.995mb.17.1S.74.1E.100pc.jpg
20200215.1430.msg-1.irbd.16S.GABEKILE.45kts.995mb.17.1S.74.1E.100pc.jpg
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Sing For You~

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发表于 2020-2-16 06:35 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-16 09:43 编辑

WTIO30 FMEE 151816
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/9/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)
2.A POSITION 2020/02/15 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7 S / 74.4 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/16 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/16 18 UTC: 19.4 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/17 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/02/17 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 73.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/02/18 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/02/18 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/19 18 UTC: 19.9 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/20 18 UTC: 21.4 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVEWITH A CDO ASSOCIATED WITH
CLOUD TOPS BECOMING COLDER AND COLDER, WITHIN WHICH A WARM SPOT IS
VISIBLE. THE SSMI PASS AT 1043Z REVEAL THAT AN EYE PATTERN IS
BUILDING AT THE MID-LEVELS. THE LAST ASCATAL DATA CONFIRM WIND OF
LESS 50KT.
THE FORWARD MOTION IS CURRENTLY ON A GENERAL SOUTHWARDS TRACK OVER
THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID LEVELS RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND AHEAD
OF A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 70E. FROM
MONDAY THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS LINKED WITH
THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AT THIS FORECAST LEAD TIME, THE ENSEMBLE
SPREAD INCREASES, AS SOME MEMBERS AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
FORECASTING AN EASTWARD TRACK.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL TONIGHT, WITH STILL A GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER BEFORE
SUNDAY MORNING, A WESTERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONSTRAINT COULD AFFECT THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED TO DRIER ENVIRONMENTAL
AIR. THUS, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY COULD COME TO A HALT AS ITS
DEVELOPMENT IS DISTURBED BY INTERMITTENT DRY INTRUSIONS. GIVEN THE
RECENT TREND, THE SYSTEM COULD BE CLOSE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
(HURRICANE) STRENGTH BY THAT TIME. MONDAY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE AGAIN WITH AN EASING OF THE SHEAR. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALL FOR A HALT ON THE WEAKENING TREND. NOTE THAT HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
BENEFIT FROM THIS TEMPORARILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DRIVE THE
TRACK FORECAST. FROM MONDAY NIGHT, AS AN UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM
THE SOUTH-WEST, A STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD
DEFINITELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.=
01A1F2D3-7D09-44B7-A09F-CB078789426D.png
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论坛版主-副热带高压

Sing For You~

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
30679
发表于 2020-2-16 06:35 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-16 08:43 编辑

TPXS11 PGTW 152124
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE)
B. 15/2045Z
C. 17.97S
D. 74.42E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS  STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.0.
SUBTRACTED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W TO YIELD A DT OF
5.0. MET YIELD A 4.0 AND PT YIELD A 4.5. DBO 4.5. BROKE
CONSTRAINTS OF 1.0 T-NUMBER CHANGE OVER 6 HOURS.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   ELIAS

TPXS11 PGTW 160030 COR
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16S (GABEKILE)
B. 15/2045Z
C. 17.97S
D. 74.42E
E. FIVE/MET8
F. T4.5/4.5/D2.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.0. SUBTRACTED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W TO YIELD A DT OF
5.0. MET YIELD A 4.0 AND PT YIELD A 4.5. DBO 4.5. BROKE
CONSTRAINTS OF 1.0 T-NUMBER CHANGE OVER 6 HOURS.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   ELIAS
1BCD6A87-3747-43D5-9CEE-4622C3C27BB6.jpeg
F7572CB3-13C4-4ED8-B752-9D25FAC2518F.jpeg
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论坛版主-副热带高压

Sing For You~

Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7

积分
30679
发表于 2020-2-16 08:40 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-2-16 09:41 编辑

FKIO20 FMEE 160036
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20200216/0036Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: GABEKILE
ADVISORY NR: 2020/04
OBS PSN: 16/0000Z S1826 E07446
CB: WI 300NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL530

MOV: SSE 07KT
C: 980HPA
MAX WIND: 70KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 16/0600Z S1851 E07447
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 16/1200Z S1913 E07447
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 16/1800Z S1929 E07444
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 65KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 17/0000Z S1936 E07437
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 60KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200216/0600Z=

WTIO30 FMEE 160043
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/9/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GABEKILE)
2.A POSITION 2020/02/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 74.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/16 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2020/02/17 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/17 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/02/18 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2020/02/18 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2020/02/19 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/20 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/21 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH AN ENLARGING CDO
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUD TOPS REMAINING VERY COLD, WITHIN WHICH A VERY
SMALL EYE TEMPORARILY APPEARS KEEPING A COOL TEMPERATURE. ARD
THE FORWARD MOTION IS CURRENTLY ON A GENERAL SOUTHWARDS TRACK OVER
THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID LEVELS RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND AHEAD
OF A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 70E. FROM
MONDAY THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS LINKED
WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AT THIS FORECAST LEAD TIME, THE ENSEMBLE
SPREAD REMAINS LARGE, EVEN IF THE TWO MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
NOW FORECASTING GLOBALLY IN AGREEMENT, FORECASTING A TRACK SLOW TO
QUITE STATIONARY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THEN SOUTH SOUTH-WESTWARDS
TRACK FROM TUESDAY
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT,
WITH STILL A GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE,HAVE ALLOWED THE SYSTEM TO
REACH THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE (HURRICANE) STRENGTH . HOWEVER
ON SUNDAY MORNING, A WESTERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONSTRAINT COULD AFFECT THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED TO DRIER
ENVIRONMENTAL AIR. THUS, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY COULD COME TO A HALT AS
ITS DEVELOPMENT IS DISTURBED BY INTERMITTENT DRY INTRUSIONS.
MONDAY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE AGAIN WITH AN EASING OF
THE SHEAR. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALL FOR A HALT ON THE WEAKENING
TREND. NOTE THAT HOW THE SYSTEM WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS TEMPORARILY
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DRIVE THE TRACK FORECAST. FROM MONDAY
NIGHT, AS AN UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, A STRENGTHENING
NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD DEFINITELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.
IMG_1378.PNG
20200215.2256.f16.91h.16S.GABEKILE.55kts.985mb.17.5S.74.3E.100pc.jpg
20200215.2256.f16.91pct91h91v.16S.GABEKILE.55kts.985mb.17.5S.74.3E.100pc.jpg
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