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[2020] 科科斯群岛西南95S - 17.0S 86.4E

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发表于 2020-2-14 14:23 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 renzhetegong 于 2020-2-16 12:15 编辑

95S INVEST 200214 0600 12.7S 89.5E SHEM 20 0

20200214.0600.himawari-8.vis.95S.INVEST.20kts.1002mb.12.7S.89.5E.100pc.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
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8

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 楼主| 发表于 2020-2-16 12:13 | 显示全部楼层
AWIO20 FMEE 151101
TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE
BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN
DATE: 2020/02/15 AT 1200 UTC
PART 1:
WARNING SUMMARY:
Warnings WTIO30 and WTIO24 FMEE n°015/8 issued for moderate tropical storm FRANCISCO
at 0600Z.
Warnings WTIO30 and WTIO20 FMEE n°003/9 issued for moderate tropical storm GABEKILE at
0600Z.
Next warnings at 1200Z.
PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:
The monsoon flow is well established east of 60°E. East of 70°E, the Monsoon Trough (MT)
pattern lies between 10°S and 15°S. On its western edge, the tropical storm GABEKILE has
developed over the last 24 hours. Near the eastern boarder of our area of responsibility, a broad area
of low level vorticity associated with thunderstorm activity is located within the MT. Elsewhere, the
thunderstorms activity is mainly located near tropical storm FRANCISCO that made landfall a few
hours ago over the eastern coasts of Madagascar near Mahanoro.
East of the basin:
A broad and ill-defined area of low pressure is located within the MT to the east of 85°E between
12-13°S. The thunderstorms activity mainly lies south of the MT within the low level convergence
within the tradewinds. As this activity is expected to track generally southwestwards, the
environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for the development of a tropical storm due
to some persistant north-easterly shear along with a potentially poor low level convergence due to
the presence of tropical storm GABEKILE to the west.
The potential for the development of a tropical storm is very low within the next 48 hours East
of the basin.
The potential for the development of a tropical storm is very low within the next 48 hours Eastof the basin.
cyclogenese.png
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发表于 2020-2-16 17:37 | 显示全部楼层
目前数值大多不支持此系统发展,成旋可能性较低
ecmwf_z500_mslp_io_fh0-120.gif
sio.png
95S_tracks_00z.png
95S_gefs_00z.png
惟愿公平如滚滚流水,而正义则像永不止息的溪流。
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