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[2020] 巴布亚湾98P - 8.8S 146.0E

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发表于 2020-3-25 08:57 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-4-3 22:05 编辑

98P INVEST 200325 0000 10.0S 143.0E SHEM 15 1010

20200325.0030.himawari-8.vis.98P.INVEST.15kts.996mb.10S.143E.100pc.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
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发表于 2020-3-25 14:00 | 显示全部楼层
预祝愚人节
98P_tracks_00z.png
98P_gefs_00z.png
gfs_pres_wind_aus_25.png
gfs_pres_wind_aus_29.png
gfs_pres_wind_aus_56.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2020-3-26 13:20 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-4-1 10:13 编辑

There are currently no significant tropical lows in the region. A trough extends from Timor and across the Arafura Sea to Torres Strait. This trough will slowly strengthen this weekend and during next week and a tropical low may form within it.

Although there are a wide range of scenarios regarding the location of formation and the movement of the tropical low next week, the risk of a tropical cyclone forming in the Northern Region will begin to increase from the middle of next week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Friday:Very Low
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low
vis-animated.gif
sh9820.gif
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 楼主| 发表于 2020-3-27 13:06 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-3-27 14:01 编辑

There are currently no significant tropical lows in the region. A trough extends from Timor and across the Arafura Sea to Torres Strait. This trough will slowly strengthen this weekend and during next week and a tropical low may form within it, most likely over the eastern Arafura Sea.

Although there are a wide range of scenarios regarding the location of formation and the movement of the tropical low next week, the risk of a tropical cyclone forming in the Northern Region will begin to increase from the middle of next week.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Saturday:Very Low
Sunday:Very Low
Monday:Very Low
vis-animated.gif
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发表于 2020-3-27 20:03 | 显示全部楼层
GFS 06Z报认为98P大约在4天后才会有明显发展,结合此前的数值预报来看,其未来路径及强度皆存在不小变数
gfs_mslp_wind_aus_fh0-192.gif
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 楼主| 发表于 2020-3-28 13:02 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-3-28 14:18 编辑

There are currently no significant tropical lows in the region. A trough extends from the Timor Sea, across the Arafura Sea, to Torres Strait. This trough will slowly strengthen this weekend and during next week. A tropical low may form within the trough, most likely over the eastern Arafura Sea, by Monday.

There are a wide range of scenarios regarding the location, formation and movement of the tropical low next week. The risk of a tropical cyclone forming in the Northern Region will increase slightly from the middle of next week, most likely location will be in the eastern Arafura Sea in the vicinity of the Torres Strait.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Sunday:Very Low
Monday:Very Low
Tuesday:Low

A trough lies across the far northern Coral Sea and extends westward through Torres Strait. A tropical low may form along this trough early next week.

Although the probability of a tropical cyclone remains very low for the next few days, the likelihood will increase from about the middle of next week. Any system that develops in the Coral Sea is expected to remain confined to the far northern or northeastern Coral Sea.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Sunday:Very low
Monday:Very low
Tuesday:Very low
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 楼主| 发表于 2020-3-28 14:21 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:LOW

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-3-28 14:56 编辑

ABPW10 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/280600Z-290600ZMAR2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.4N 147.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.0N 145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 618
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 280347Z AMSR2 PASS DEPICT A WEAK AND INDISTINCT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED, FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD. 93W
IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR NEAR-TERM DEVELOPMENT IS THE DISORGANIZED
NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT, WITH THE MAJORITY MAINTAINING 93W ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD
TRACK WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.8N
142.6E, APPROXIMATELY 287 NM WEST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED POCKETS OF
FLARING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING
EVIDENT IN A 272250Z ASCAT-A PASS. 98P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 98P WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEAR TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
LATEST.jpg
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.8N
142.6E, APPROXIMATELY 287 NM WEST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED POCKETS OF
FLARING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING
EVIDENT IN A 272250Z ASCAT-A PASS. 98P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 98P WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEAR TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg
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 楼主| 发表于 2020-3-29 13:31 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-3-29 14:27 编辑

A trough lies across the far northern Coral Sea and extends westward through Torres Strait. A tropical low is currently developing along this trough, near the Papua New Guinea coast northwest of Cape York. This tropical low is expected to move east into the far northern Coral Sea early in the week. It may continue to develop, and there is a low to moderate chance it may develop into a tropical cyclone later in the week.

The system is expected to remain confined to the far northern or northeastern Coral Sea, possibly north of the Australian area of responsibility and close to Papua New Guinea. Even if a tropical cyclone were to develop, it is unlikely to have a direct impact on the Australian coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Monday:Very low
Tuesday:Very low
Wednesday:Low

A trough extends from the Timor Sea, across the Arafura Sea, into the Torres Strait. A weak tropical low is located over the eastern Arafura Sea. It is expected to move towards the east into the Coral Sea, away from the Northern Region over the next few days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Monday:Very Low
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Very Low
noaad1.png
ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZMAR2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.0N 145.0E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.8S 142.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0S 144.5E, APPROXIMATELY 112
NM WEST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 282345Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
FLARING CONVECTION WITHOUT A CLEAR LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. 98P IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH FAVORABLE OUTFLOW, LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT 98P WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEAR TERM, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NAVGEM WHICH SHOWS MORE INTENSIFICATION BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER
PAPUA NEW GUINEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg
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发表于 2020-3-29 19:51 | 显示全部楼层
GFS这几报已经逐渐不支持98P进一步发展(可能是受到了陆地和98P东侧另一系统的影响)
gfs_mslp_wind_aus_fh0-144.gif
98P_tracks_latest.png
98P_gefs_latest.png
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 楼主| 发表于 2020-3-30 13:15 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-3-30 14:48 编辑

A trough lies across the Torres Strait and far northern Coral Sea. A tropical low is currently developing along this trough, near the Papua New Guinea coast north of Cape York. This tropical low is expected to move east across southern Papua New Guinea over the next few days, and may develop as it moves away from land into the northeast Coral Sea at the end of the week.

The system is expected to remain confined to the far northern or northeastern Coral Sea, and is unlikely to have a direct impact on the Australian coast.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Tuesday:Very low
Wednesday:Low
Thursday:Low

A tropical low near the edge of the Northern Region is located near the Papua New Guinea coast to the north of the Cape York Peninsula. It is expected to move towards the east away from the Northern Region. No other tropical lows are expected to develop in the Northern Region during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Very Low
sh9820.png
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