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[2020] 雅浦岛东南93W - 1.8N 141.2E

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发表于 2020-3-26 09:16 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2020-3-30 14:17 编辑

93W INVEST 200326 0000 2.5N 152.8E WPAC 10 1008

20200326.0050.himawari-8.vis.93W.INVEST.10kts.1008mb.2.5N.152.8E.100pc.jpg

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发表于 2020-3-26 09:30 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 933954 于 2020-3-26 10:19 编辑

Then instability might return to Koror next week as another disturbance currently south of Chuuk at 2N153E tracks west-northwestward toward southeast of the capital.
今早上NWS淡淡提了该系统一句(或许是编扰原因?)。
不过,数值现在好像还不太看好该系统的发展(只有少数数值预测TD-TS,或许可以成为今年首台?)。

最新的风场扫描:
LATEST.jpg

数值反应微弱:
wpac.png
70.track.png
93W_gefs_latest.png
93W_geps_latest.png
93W_tracks_latest.png
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发表于 2020-3-26 10:00 | 显示全部楼层
比南半球扰动更有气势
s0p-2020-03-26-08-00.jpg
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热带扰动-TCFA

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发表于 2020-3-26 10:40 | 显示全部楼层
GFS又毒奶,好几条都支持发展

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红豆棒冰冰 + 10 欢迎新人

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发表于 2020-3-26 15:00 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:LOW

ABPW10 PGTW 260600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZMAR2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 2.5N
152.8E, APPROXIMATELY 288 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH LIMITED FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A
252302Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEAL ELONGATED TROUGHING SURROUNDED BY
5 TO 10 KNOT WINDS. 93W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD WITH
MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
260545abpwsair.jpg
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发表于 2020-3-26 15:42 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2020-3-26 15:47 编辑

此前有关该系统的讨论可参见西太/北印各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖27楼29楼
目前各大数值00Z预报中仅有GFS和NAVGEM有较明显反应,但GFS明显调后了成旋时间,NAVGEM则预报93W会一路西行进入南海,180h内没有明显发展:
gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_fh240-384.gif
navgem_mslp_uv850_wpac_fh0-180.gif
93W_tracks_latest.png
93W_gefs_latest.png
93W_geps_latest.png
此外,JMA最新发布的予想天气图中也没有明显反应:
20032609.png
20032709.png
20032809.png
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发表于 2020-3-26 20:06 | 显示全部楼层
GFS 06Z报仍然认为其移速及发展缓慢,+384h还在棉兰老岛以东洋面
gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_21.png
gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_41.png
gfs_mslp_wind_wpac_65.png
93W_tracks_latest.png
93W_gefs_latest.png
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热带低压

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发表于 2020-3-27 14:57 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2020-3-27 19:56 编辑

20200327.0600.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.93WINVEST.15kts-1010mb-54N-1475E.100pc.jpg

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红豆棒冰冰 + 1 请尽量将图片保存到本地后再上传

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发表于 2020-3-27 15:00 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:REMAINS LOW

ABPW10 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZMAR2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 2.5N 152.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 147.5E, APPROXIMATELY 506
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A WEAK, DIFFICULT TO DISCERN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH DISORGANIZED, FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 270021Z MHS METOP-
B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION,
SHOWING ONLY SMALL AREAS OF FRAGMENTED CONVECTION. 93W IS CURRENTLY
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10
TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE MAJORITY MAINTAINING 93W ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK WITH
MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. NAVGEM IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY OUTLIER,
SHOWING INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
270545abpwsair.jpg
20200327.0021.metopb.89h.93W.INVEST.10kts.1010mb.5.4N.147.5E.050pc.jpg
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发表于 2020-3-27 19:51 | 显示全部楼层
GFS和NAVGEM 06Z报都已经不支持进一步发展,93W成旋的希望越来越渺茫
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