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[2020] 雅浦岛东南93W - 1.8N 141.2E

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发表于 2020-3-28 14:36 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:REMAINS LOW

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-3-28 14:55 编辑

ABPW10 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/280600Z-290600ZMAR2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.4N 147.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.0N 145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 618
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 280347Z AMSR2 PASS DEPICT A WEAK AND INDISTINCT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED, FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD. 93W
IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR NEAR-TERM DEVELOPMENT IS THE DISORGANIZED
NATURE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT, WITH THE MAJORITY MAINTAINING 93W ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD
TRACK WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.8N
142.6E, APPROXIMATELY 287 NM WEST OF PORT MORESBY, PAPUA NEW GUINEA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS ISOLATED POCKETS OF
FLARING CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING
EVIDENT IN A 272250Z ASCAT-A PASS. 98P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 98P WILL
MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD WITH MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEAR TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
abpwsair.jpg
20200328.0347.gw1.89hbt.93W.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.4.2N.143.6E.90pc.jpg
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发表于 2020-3-28 22:11 | 显示全部楼层
93W INVEST 200328 1200 2.5N 144.7E WPAC 15 1010

20200328.1200.himawari-8.ir.93W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.2.5N.144.8E.100pc.jpg
20200328.1200.himawari-8.irbd.93W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.2.5N.144.8E.100pc.jpg
20200328.1129.mta.ASCAT.wind.93W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb.25N.1448E.25km.jpeg
20200328.1129.mta.ASCAT.wind.93W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb.25N.1448E.25km.noqc.jpeg
wgmsshr.GIF
wgmssht.GIF
wgmsdvg.GIF
wgmsconv.GIF
wgmsvor.GIF
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发表于 2020-3-29 13:44 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC取消评级

本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-3-29 14:25 编辑

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.0N 145.0E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
abpwsair.jpg
20200329.0540.himawari-8.vis.93W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.2N.144E.100pc.jpg
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发表于 2020-3-29 20:08 | 显示全部楼层
数值预报93W将逐渐被拖到南半球,恐怕是彻底没有希望了
93W_tracks_latest.png
93W_gefs_latest.png
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发表于 2020-3-29 21:39 | 显示全部楼层
即将跨越赤道进入南半球
93W INVEST 200326 1200 4.1N 150.7E WPAC 10 1011
93W INVEST 200326 1800 4.4N 149.1E WPAC 10 1007
93W INVEST 200327 0000 4.6N 147.4E WPAC 15 1010
93W INVEST 200327 0600 4.6N 146.2E WPAC 15 1007
93W INVEST 200327 1200 4.3N 145.3E WPAC 15 1010
93W INVEST 200327 1800 4.3N 144.3E WPAC 15 1006
93W INVEST 200328 0000 4.2N 143.6E WPAC 15 1006
93W INVEST 200328 0600 2.5N 144.8E WPAC 15 1010
93W INVEST 200328 1200 2.5N 144.7E WPAC 15 1010
93W INVEST 200328 1800 1.8N 145.1E WPAC 15 1010
93W INVEST 200329 0000 0.7N 144.4E WPAC 15 1010
93W INVEST 200329 0600 0.4N 143.7E WPAC 15 1010
93W INVEST 200329 1200 0.2N 143.7E WPAC 15 1010
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发表于 2020-3-29 22:00 | 显示全部楼层
0.2N…
20200329.1223.mtb.ASCAT.wind.93W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb.02N.1437E.25km.noqc.jpg
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发表于 2020-3-30 10:00 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 327 于 2020-3-30 10:15 编辑

……
20200329.2347.mta.ASCAT.wind.93W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb.18N.1412E.25km.noqc.jpg
20200330.0000.himawari-8.vis.93W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.1.3N.142.1E.100pc.jpg
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发表于 2020-3-30 10:46 | 显示全部楼层

续命成功

93W INVEST 200330 0000 1.8N 141.2E WPAC 15 1010
93W INVEST 200329 1800 1.3N 142.1E WPAC 15 1010
93W INVEST 200329 1200 .2N 143.7E WPAC 15 1010
93W INVEST 200329 0600 .4N 143.7E WPAC 15 1010
93W INVEST 200329 0000 .7N 144.4E WPAC 15 1010
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发表于 2020-3-30 15:00 | 显示全部楼层
FNMOC撤编,东南方出现南半球气旋性环流扰动90P
20200330.0600.himawari-8.ir.90P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.5.3S.147.1E.100pc.jpg
20200330.0332.gw1.36pct36h36v.90P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.5.3S.147.1E.78pc.jpg
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