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[报文翻译] [2020] 2001号热带气旋“黄蜂”(01W.Vongfong)JTWC预报理由翻译帖

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发表于 2020-5-10 12:24 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 ___ 于 2020-5-17 22:42 编辑

鉴于该热带系统未来发展形势良好,且可能影响我国华南沿海以及南海海区,特开此帖。

2001号热带气旋“黄蜂”(01W.Vongfong)JTWC预报理由翻译帖
警报编号
时间
翻译者
翻译形式
楼层
备注
TCFA (100300Z)
05-10 0300Z
___
全文
TCFA (110300Z)
05-11 0300Z
___
全文
#01
05-11 1800Z
MTWP
全文
#02
05-12 0000Z
___
全文
#03
05-12 0600Z
jat4
全文
#04
05-12 1200Z
jat4
全文
#05
05-12 1800Z
___
全文
#06
05-13 0000Z
jat4
全文
#07
05-13 0600Z
MTWP
全文
#08
05-13 1200Z
yangzhe1997
全文
#09
05-13 1800Z
MTWP
全文
#10
05-14 0000Z
MTWP
全文
#11
05-14 0600Z
MTWP
全文
#12
05-14 1200Z
jat4
全文
#13
05-14 1800Z
___
全文
#14
05-15 0000Z
MTWP
全文
#15
05-15 0600Z
MTWP
全文
#16
05-15 1200Z
___
全文
#17
05-15 1800Z
MTWP
全文
#18
05-16 0000Z
MTWP
全文
#19 (FW)
05-16 0600Z
MTWP
全文


翻译说明:
1、本帖翻译JTWC报文,时间以协调世界时作准。
2、翻译前为防止重复翻译原则上需要预约,可以直接回帖预约或发私信至开帖人预约。
3、为信息展示需要,请将报文原文和译文放置于同一楼层。若回帖预约的,请将翻译放在预约帖。
4、有时间的童鞋建议全文翻译,我们也鼓励抓要点进行简单翻译,简单翻译的要点: 发报时定位,过去的移动速度、结构、强度、环境场,未来的强度、路径、环境场,数值的预测。
5、本帖不允许发与翻译和预约不相符的内容,否则将被视为灌水删帖处理。
6、翻译中若有其他任何疑惑,欢迎加入翻译小组QQ群280857254加入我们的讨论。

规则说明:https://bbs.typhoon.org.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=34364#pid1147015

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 楼主| 发表于 2020-5-10 12:27 | 显示全部楼层

95W预报理由翻译/TCFA/05-10 0300Z

本帖最后由 ___ 于 2020-5-12 08:56 编辑

一、在接下来的12-24小时内,7.2N 131.7E到9.9N 129.0E连线的两侧120海里的范围中可能生成一个热带气旋。现有的数据尚不支持此时发布热带气旋警报。该区域内的风速约为18至23节。5月10日0时的卫星图像显示,系统的环流中心位于7.2N 131.5E附近,正以5节的速度往西北偏西方向移动。

二、备注:扰动95W早前位于6.7N 132.8E附近,现位于7.2N 131.5E附近,即帕劳以西约180海里。多光谱卫星动画和5月9日21时02分的NOAA-19卫星89GHz图像显示系统的低层环流被上空的对流云覆盖,北部有形成中的云带。95W正处于有利的发展环境中,垂直风切变较低(小于15节),海面温度较高(28-30℃),并有良好的赤向流出。全球数值模式一致认为95W将继续加强并向西北方向移动。其海平面最大持续风约为18至23节,最低气压约为1005百帕。未来24小时内该热带气旋形成的可能性评估为高。

三、此警报将于5月11日3时前更新、升格为热带气旋警报或者撤销。

wp9520.gif
20200509.2102.noaa19.89h.95W.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.7N.132E.100pc.jpg
cdas-sflux_sst_wpac_1.png
wgmsshtZ.GIF
WTPN21 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.2N 131.7E TO 9.9N 129.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.2N 131.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.7N 132.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 131.5E, APPROXIMATELY 180
NM WEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
092102Z NOAA-19 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH SOME CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING
TO THE NORTH. INVEST 95W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
WHILE IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110300Z.
//
NNNN

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 楼主| 发表于 2020-5-11 10:48 | 显示全部楼层

95W预报理由翻译/TCFA/05-11 0300Z

本帖最后由 ___ 于 2020-5-12 08:56 编辑

一、在接下来的12-24小时内,8.5N 130.1E到11.5N 128.2E连线的两侧120海里的范围中可能生成一个热带气旋。现有的数据尚不支持此时发布热带气旋警报。该区域内的风速约为18至23节。5月11日0时的卫星图像显示,系统的环流中心位于8.7N 130.1E附近,正以2节的速度往西北偏北方向移动。

二、备注:扰动95W早前位于7.2N 131.3E附近,现位于8.7N 130.1E附近,即帕劳科罗尔岛西北约280海里。多光谱卫星动画和5月10日19时59分的SSMIS 91GHz图像显示系统的低层环流被上空向南偏离的对流云覆盖,北部有形成中的云带。95W正处于有利的发展环境中,垂直风切变较低(小于15节),海面温度较高(28-30℃),赤向和极向流出均良好。全球数值模式一致认为95W将继续加强并向西北方向移动,随后向西北西转向靠近菲律宾。其海平面最大持续风约为18至23节,最低气压约为1007百帕。未来24小时内该热带气旋形成的可能性仍评估为高。本警报将取代上一警报WTPN21 PGTW 100300。

三、此警报将于5月12日3时前更新、升格为热带气旋警报或者撤销。

wp9520.gif
95W_110230sair.jpg
20200510.1959.f18.91h.95W.INVEST.20kts.1005mb.8.8N.129.9E.070pc.jpg
WTPN21 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100251ZMAY2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.5N 130.1E TO 11.5N 128.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 110000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.7N 130.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.2N 131.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 130.1E, APPROXIMATELY 280
NM NORTHWEST OF KOROR, PALAU, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 101959Z SSMIS 91 GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND OFFSET
TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH. INVEST
95W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WHILE IT TRACKS
NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A
(WTPN21 PGTW 100300).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
120300Z.//
NNNN

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发表于 2020-5-12 09:42 | 显示全部楼层

01W预报理由翻译/#01/05-11 18Z

本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2020-5-12 17:20 编辑

1. 本产品面向气象专业人员
2. 6小时总结与分析

热带低压01W(暂无名)目前位于马尼拉东南东方向约547海里的海上,过去六小时正以4节的速度向西北北方向移动。增强红外线云图动画显示在低层环流东南侧有爆发的对流,而中心附近爆发的对流则较弱。根据协调时12时37分的ASCAT-B的部分风场扫描[1]、同一时间的AMSU 89GHz微波图像[2]、以及对卷绕在模糊中心周围的低层螺旋云带的分析,我们认为初始定位准确性较低。由于JTWC和JMA均给出T1.5(对应25-30节)的德法分析,且中心东南约50海里处有船舶实测到28节的风力,我们给出25节的初始定强。分析表明,热带低压01W正处在有利的环境当中:垂直风切变较低(10-15节)[3],高空的弱点源提供了中等的径向流出[4],以及海表温度[5]和海洋热含量[6]均较高。系统目前沿一条深厚的副热带高压脊移动,这条脊的中心位于马里亚纳群岛,大致在145E附近,呈南北走向。
3. 预报理由
A. 本报是第一报预报理由,确定了预报原理。
B. 未来24小时,由于副高仍然强势,热带低压01W将继续向西北北方向移动。但是,未来36小时,副高将移动到130E附近,并大致呈东西走向,这使得01W将向西北西方向移动并靠近菲律宾中部。系统预期将在未来72小时擦过萨马岛的北岸,然后在吕宋岛东南登陆。预计在这一期间内环境仍然对系统发展有利:点源将继续在高空提供强流出和低风切。因此,系统在未来72小时内会稳步发展,预计在登陆前达到巅峰强度70节。
C. 未来72小时后,由于副高逐渐东退,热带低压01W会沿副高边缘先向西北、然后向北移动穿过吕宋岛。到未来120小时,它将出海并在吕宋海峡重整结构。由于吕宋岛地形并不平坦,它将持续减弱。不过,未来96小时后,持续的、延展到中纬度西风带的极向流出将支持系统重新发展,预计系统出海后能发展成弱的热带风暴。数值模型均支持阶梯状的路径,但是它们在具体路径上分歧严重,对未来72小时的预报的分歧达到了250海里,在未来72小时候更是达到了300海里以上(未去除孤立值)。我们(JTWC)在未来24小时的预报路径内较多模型共识偏西,而之后的路径则根据ECMWF的预测调整到较多模型共识偏东、北,并认为01W的移速会稍快。由于数值间显而易见的分歧,总体而言JTWC的路径预报信心较低。
0BD5A35B-7ADE-40B2-8D43-9E493F69D511.gif
504993C7-043D-47E1-8942-30A4A94A5163.jpeg

[1]
20200511.1237.mtb.ASCAT.wind.95W.INVEST.20kts-1007mb.91N.1290E.25km.jpeg
[2]
20200511.1235.metopb.89h.95W.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.9.1N.129E.095pc.jpg
[3]
wgmsshr-2.GIF
[4]
wgmswvir-2.GIF
[5]
cdas-sflux_sst_wpac_1.png
[6]
2020wp01_ohcnfcst_202005111800.gif
WDPN31 PGTW 112000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 547
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION OFFSET SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), WITH SOME WEAKER FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE ASSESSED CENTER POSITION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A PARTIAL 1237Z ASCAT-B PASS AND ACCOMPANYING AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND ANALYSIS OF EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDS WHICH CAN BE SEEN WRAPPING INTO THE OBSCURED CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.5 (25-30KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD, AND IS SUPPORTED BY A SHIP OBSERVATION OF 28 KNOTS FROM A VESSEL LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT POSITION. ANALYSIS
INDICATES TD 01W LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT)
RELATIVE VWS, MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A WEAK POINT SOURCE ALOFT OVER THE SYSTEM AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) IN THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ISLANDS WITH A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AXIS ALONG ROUGHLY 145E LONGITUDE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A.  THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 01W WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DEEP-LAYER STR REMAINS ENTRENCHED FAR TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, BY TAU 36 THE STR BEGINS TO REORIENT ONTO A GENERALLY EAST-WEST ORIENTATION AND MOVES TO NEAR 130E LONGITUDE, PUSHING TD 01W ONTO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SKIRT THE NORTH SHORE OF SAMAR ISLAND BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF LUZON AROUND TAU 72. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 72 WITH THE POINT SOURCE REMAINING OVERHEAD PROVIDING STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND LOW VWS, FUELING STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 01W WILL TRACK NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AS IT GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTHEAST, DRAG ACROSS THE LENGTH OF LUZON ISLAND AND THEN REEMERGE OVER WATER IN THE BABUYUAN CHANNEL BY TAU 120. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF LUZON. HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE MAINTENANCE OF ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AFTER TAU 96 WILL SERVE TO OFFSET MORE DRASTIC WEAKENING AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REEMERGE OVER WATER AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM. NUMERICAL MODELS ALL CONCUR ON THE GENERAL STAIR STEP TRACK SCENARIO, THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EXACT TRACK, WITH CROSS-TRACK UNCERTAINTY AT TAU 72 EXCEEDING 250NM. BEYOND TAU 72 CROSS AND ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY INCREASE TO MORE THAN 300NM BETWEEN OUTLIERS. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES JUST WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24, WHILE IT LIES NORTH AND EAST, AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN LIGHT OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION. WITH THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY EVIDENT IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

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 楼主| 发表于 2020-5-12 12:14 | 显示全部楼层

01W预报理由翻译/#02/05-12 00Z

本帖最后由 ___ 于 2020-5-13 14:17 编辑

一、本产品面向气象从业者。

二、6小时总结及分析
        热带低压01W位于菲律宾马尼拉东南偏东约531海里,在过去6小时内以5节的速度向北移动。多光谱卫星动画显示,过去数小时内,低层环流中心附近出现对流爆发并伴有破顶现象(overshooting top),较浅的对流带向环流南侧扩展。初始定位基于5月11日22时25分的DMSP 37ghz图像和23时56分的ASCAT-B(译者注:应为A星)扫描给出,可信度为高。JTWC和JMA均将CI评估为T1.5(25-30节),不过由于ADT评估为T2.0,以及上述ASCAT扫描显示系统的东南象限存在30节风力,因此初始强度被确定为30节,可信度为高。01W正处于利于发展的环境中,垂直风切变较低(10-15节),海面温度较高(28-29℃),其上空有一弱的、向赤道偏离的流出点源提供径向流出。01W正沿着深层副热带高压脊的西缘移动,该副热带高压脊以北马里亚纳群岛为中心,脊线大致沿145E南北走向。

三、预报理由
        A.对比上一报,本报的预报理念没有显著的更改

        B.在接下来的12h内,01W将继续沿着深层副热带高压脊的西缘向北-西北方向移动。+12h后,高压脊脊线开始转为东西走向,其中心将移动到20N 130E附近,这将导致01W在+12-72h内采取更偏西的路径,向菲律宾中部地区移动。据此,我们预测01W将掠过萨马岛北岸,约于+60h时登陆吕宋岛的东南部。在+72h前,系统持续处于良好的环境中,高层流出点源仍位于低层环流中心的上方,提供强大的流出和较低的风切。位于华南(译者注:目前TUTT主体在南海,这里可能脱了一个“Sea”)的TUTT的气流目前抑制了系统西北侧的流出,不过我们预测这一TUTT将减弱南移,从而降低西北侧的流出压力,增强极向流出,为+24h-48h期间的快速增强提供条件。我们预测01W在+72h达到70节的巅峰强度,实际的巅峰强度可能出现在+60h附近,那时系统尚未登陆,强度则接近75节。

        C.01W将于+60h左右首次登陆,其后,副热带高压脊将向东南移动,引导系统转向西北并随后北行。在二次登陆吕宋北部后,01W将向北移动,并于+120h在巴士海峡出海。登陆和穿过吕宋岛将导致系统显著减弱,但西风带来强劲的极向流出使 01W在陆上也能维持热带风暴强度。现有的数值模式路径预报近期也达成了很好的一致,+72h时的差距在70海里内,不过+96h时,各数值对副热带高压脊运动的预报差异较大,离群值之间的差距达到320海里。我们的预报路径继续较多模式平均路径稍稍偏北。随着数值一致性的升高,我们预测的可信度逐渐提高。但由于系统处于发展阶段,可信度仍相对较低。

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20200511.2225.f17.37pct37h37v.01W.ONE.25kts.1004mb.9.6N.128.8E.075pc.jpg
20200511.2356.mta.ASCAT.wind.01W.ONE.30kts-1003mb.103N.1291E.25km.jpeg
wgmswvirZ-2.GIF
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WDPN31 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 531
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, FLARING CONVECTION WITH
OVERSHOOTING TOPS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE ASSESSED LLCC, WITH
SOMEWHAT SHALLOWER CONVECTIVE BANDS EXPANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 2225Z DMSP COLOR 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 2356Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER BULLSEYE PASS.  
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25-30KTS) FROM
BOTH PGTW AND RJTD, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN LIGHT OF AN ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT PASS INDICATING 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TD 01W LIES IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VWS, MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW, BIASED
TO THE EQUATORWARD SIDE PROVIDED BY A WEAK POINT SOURCE 429244OVER
THE SYSTEM AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ISLANDS
WITH A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED AXIS ALONG ROUGHLY 145E LONGITUDE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TD 01W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTH TO
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR CURRENTLY
CENTER NORTH OF GUAM. AFTER THIS POINT THE STR BEGINS TO REORIENT
ONTO A GENERALLY EAST-WEST ORIENTATION WHILST RE-CENTERING NEAR 20N
130E. THIS MOVEMENT WILL RESULT IN TD 01W MOVING ONTO A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES THROUGH TAU 72. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SKIRT THE NORTHERN COAST OF SAMAR AND MAKE
LANDFALL ON THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LUZON BY AROUND TAU
60. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 72,
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE REMAINING OVERHEAD THE LLCC
PROVIDING STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS. FLOW OUT OF A TROPICAL
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED IN THE SOUTH CHINA IS
CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, THIS TUTT CELL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH,
DECREASING THE PRESSURE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE AND ALLOWING FOR
INCREASED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, PROVIDING FUEL FOR A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 48. THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 70
KNOTS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AT TAU 72. THE ACTUAL PEAK WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AROUND TAU 60 WHILE THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER WATER AND BE
CLOSER TO 75 KNOTS.
C. AFTER LANDFALL AROUND TAU 60, TD 01W IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
AS IT MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST. AFTER MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF NORTHERN LUZON, TD 01W WILL MOVE NORTH AND AGAIN
EMERGE OVER WATER IN THE BASHI CHANNEL BY TAU 120. AFTER THE INITIAL
LANDFALL AND TRANSIT OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY, BUT STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW TD 01W TO MAINTAIN WEAK TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH EVEN WHILE OVER LAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME
INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN, WITH ALL
AVAILABLE MODELS IN STRONG AGREEMENT (<70NM SPREAD) THROUGH TAU 72.
SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOPS BEYOND TAU 96,
WITH SPREAD BETWEEN OUTLIERS INCREASING TO 320 NM BY TAU 120, AS THE
EXACT NATURE OF THE REORIENTATION AND MOVEMENT OF THE STR VARIES
BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO LIE
JUST NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AMONGST THE TIGHTEST
PACKING OF AVAILABLE TRACKERS. WITH THE IMPROVED AGREEMENT IN THE
GUIDANCE, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST BUT
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW DUE TO THE STILL DEVELOPING NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM.//
NNNN

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发表于 2020-5-12 18:01 | 显示全部楼层

01W预报理由翻译/#03/05-12 06Z

本帖最后由 jat4 于 2020-5-12 19:38 编辑

1.    本产品面向气象专业人员
2.     6小时总结与分析
热带低压01W位于菲律宾马尼拉东南521海里,在过去6小时以5节的速度向北移动。多光谱卫星影像动画显示01W具有持续的深对流以及稍微偏向东北的低层环流中心。对流在过去6小时内有所增强,对流包络区(convective envelope)出现了上冲云顶。初始定位基于部分暴露的向低层环流中心卷绕的雨带以及从11日2330Z ASCAT-A数据和12日0456Z AMSR2 89GHZ影像显示的低层中心外推得到的位置。由此,定位信心较为良好。初始强度被定为30节,这是基于PGTW给出的CI值T2.0(对应30节)和RJTD给出的CI值T1.5(对应30节)给出的。除此之外,多光谱卫星动画显示出持续的深对流,所以定强信心较为良好。01W目前处于低风切(5-10节),高海温(28-29度)的环境中,并具有良好的赤向流出和不错的极向流出,预计将会逐渐增强。该系统沿着中心位于北马里亚纳的深层副热带脊的西缘移动,该高压脊未来还将逐渐西伸。
3.    预报理由
A.    对比上一报,本报的预报理念没有显著的更改。
B.    未来12小时,01W将沿着高压脊向北-西北方向移动,该高压脊中心届时将位于关岛北部并将持续西伸至吕宋北部。这使得01W从+24h开始转向偏西移动至+48h登陆萨马岛。位于01W上空的高层流出点源将继续提供流出,并且低风切(5-10节),高海温(28-29度)的环境将会持续,所以01W未来将继续增强。目前预报的巅峰为70节,出现在+48h,在此之后,01W将受陆地摩擦影响。登陆之后,01W将改为西-西北行进直到+72h。各家数值预报在此预报时段内趋于一致,所以截止+72h的路径预报信心是较为良好的。
C.    在+72h之后,01W将北折直到在+96h左右登陆。陆地的摩擦效应将阻止01W继续增强,但此时强烈的极向流出和低风切(5-10节)意味着01W不会有剧烈的减弱。当01W深入陆地时,位于南海的TUTT将干扰该系统的流出。但由于TUTT将向南移动,所以对01W的干扰将在+72h停止。在这时预计01W的强度为65节。在+96h,01W将减弱至50节并沿东侧的高压脊向北-东北方向移动。由于依然很低的风切(5-10节)和强烈的极向流出,01W将维持50节的强度。在+120h,01W将继续沿此方向移动至阿帕里以北的菲律宾海,这一区域拥有较高的海温。各家数值的分歧在此时段剧烈增大,从+72h的145海里增加到+96h的270海里。模式巨大的不确定性是由于对高压脊建立和转向的时间预报不同。这也使得在+72h之后的路径预报信心较低。

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20200512.0456.gw1.89pct89h89v.01W.ONE.30kts.1003mb.10.3N.129.1E.91pc.jpg

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WDPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 521
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SLIGHTLY OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE SEMICIRCLE. CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH
OVERSHOOTING TOPS DEVELOPING IN THE CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE
ENVELOPE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE OBSCURED LLCC
IN THE MSI LOOP, AS WELL AS EXTRAPOLATION FROM A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION APPARENT IN 112330Z ASCAT-A DATA TO THE CENTER OF LOW
LEVEL FEATURES IN A 120456Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 30 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (PGTW 30 KTS) AND T1.5 (RJTD 30 KTS) AND
IS IN LINE WITH THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION PRESENT IN MSI. TD 01W
LIES IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH
LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, GOOD EQUATORWARD AND MODEST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS THAT
CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TD 01W WILL TRACK GENERALLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
STR CENTERED NORTH OF GUAM. THIS STR IS CURRENTLY BUILDING FARTHER
WESTWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON AND WILL RESULT IN SUBSEQUENT
STEERING OF TD 01W IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION FROM TAU 24
UNTIL LANDFALL NEAR SAMAR ISLAND AT TAU 48. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS OVER WATER. AN UPPER LEVEL POINT
SOURCE SITUATED ABOVE THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE STRONG
OUTFLOW, WHILE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE TO REMAIN HIGH (28-29C)
AND VWS IS TO REMAIN LOW (5-10 KTS) ALLOWING FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. THE PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
AT TAU 48 WHEREUPON THE SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AS
IT MAKES LANDFALL DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. AFTER
REACHING LANDFALL AT TAU 48, TD 01W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
COME INTO IMPROVING AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 (128 NM SPREAD AT TAU
48, 145NM SPREAD AT TAU 72) LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION
OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72 TD 01W WILL BEGIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL TAU
96 AS IT TRAVELS INLAND. THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION
WILL HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND LEAD TO SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM, HOWEVER THIS WEAKENING WILL BE OFFSET BY CONTINUED ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS (5-10 KTS). OUTFLOW FROM A TROPICAL
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA WILL IMPINGE UPON THE OUTFLOW OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
INLAND HOWEVER THIS CELL IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL SOUTHWARD AND CEASE
INTERACTION WITH TD 01W BY TAU 72, AT WHICH POINT IT WILL HAVE
WEAKENED TO 65 KTS. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO 50 KTS AS
IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE AXIS OF THE STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND
TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. IT WILL RETAIN ITS INTENSITY OF 50 KTS
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENTLY LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AFTER THIS TIME AND REACH THE WARM WATERS OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA
NORTH OF APARRI BY TAU 120. THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASES
TO 145 NM BY TAU 72 AND THEN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES TO 270 NM BY
TAU 96. THE UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS DUE TO THE TIMING OF
THE BUILDING AND REORIENTATION OF THE STEERING RIDGE WITH EACH OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS PROVIDING A DIFFERENT CENTER POSITION OF THE RIDGE
AT TAU 96-120. THIS INCREASING SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 72
LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

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发表于 2020-5-12 23:40 | 显示全部楼层

01W预报理由翻译/#04/05-12 12Z

本帖最后由 jat4 于 2020-5-12 23:52 编辑

1.     本产品面向气象专业人员
2.      6小时总结与分析
热带风暴(TS)01W黄蜂目前位于菲律宾马尼拉东南偏东大约495海里。在过去6小时以6节的速度向北-西北方向移动。增强红外动画显示一个被深厚对流遮盖的低层中心,同时云顶温度正在快速下降,表明在过去6小时黄蜂有所增强。初始定位由PGTW和RJTD的德法报文以及12日0836Z的SSMIS 37GHZ图像显示出的低层环流中心的位置得出。定位信心较为良好。初始定强为35节,稍高于PGTW给出CI值T2.0的对应,这是由于最新的CIMSS ADT给出T2.7-T3.1,并且黄蜂的对流结构有所改善。定强信心为良好。黄蜂目前处于低风切(5-10节),高海温(29-30度)的环境中,并且赤向流出和极向流出已经建立,适宜快速增强。目前该系统沿着中心位于北马里亚纳的深层副热带脊的西缘移动,该高压脊未来还将逐渐西伸。
3.     预报理由
A.     对比上一报,本报的预报理念没有显著的更改。
B.     未来12小时,黄蜂将沿着中心在关岛北部的副热带高压脊的西缘向北-西北方向移动。该高压脊正在西伸并将会扩展至吕宋北部,这使得黄蜂从+24h开始转向偏西移动,直至+48h登陆萨马岛。未来48小时黄蜂仍处于低风切(5-10节)和高海温(28-29度)的环境中。除此之外,高层点源会继续给黄蜂提供辐散。所以在未来48小时,黄蜂可能出现快速增强。但是,中心在南海的TUTT会抵消掉一部分发展的优势。预计黄蜂的巅峰强度为65节,出现在+48h,此时陆地的摩擦效应会阻止进一步的增强。在+48h登陆之后,黄蜂将沿着引导层采取西-西北的路径到+72h。在此阶段模式分歧从+48h的98海里增加到+72h的166海里,所以这段路径的预报信心为中等。
C.     在+72h之后黄蜂将会转向西北行,在+96h再次登陆。陆地的摩擦效应将会带来强度的减弱,但强烈的极向流出和低风切(5-10节)意味着减弱幅度不大。当黄蜂深入陆地时,中心位于南海的TUTT还将持续影响系统的流出,直到+72h时该TUTT南移,此时黄蜂强度将减弱至60节。由于长时间处于陆上,黄蜂将在+96h减弱到50节。这时,黄蜂将沿东侧的高压脊向北-东北方向移动。由于依然很低的风切(5-10节)和强烈的极向流出,黄蜂将维持50节的强度。在+120h,黄蜂将继续沿此方向移动至阿帕里以北的暖水。模式分歧从+72h的166海里增加到+96h的298海里,这是由于对高压脊建立和转向的时间预报不同。从+96h到+120h,每一个全球模式都给出了不同的高压脊中心。模式的不确定性导致这一部分的路径预报信心较低。

wp0120.gif

01W_121400sair.jpg

20200512.0836.f18.37pct37h37v.01W.ONE.30kts.1002mb.10.8N.129E.065pc.jpg
wgmswvirZ.GIF

WDPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
495NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP, SYMMETRICAL
CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BELOW. THE EIR
LOOP FURTHER INDICATES RAPIDLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND CONSOLIDATING
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, SUGGESTING INTENSIFICATION DURING
THIS PERIOD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AS WELL AS EXTRAPOLATION
THROUGH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE PRESENT IN A 120836Z SSMIS
37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED ABOVE A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.0 DUE TO TIMELY CIMMS ADT ASSESSMENTS OF T2.7-T3.1 AND
THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TS VONGFONG IS TRAVERSING AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5-10 KTS)
VWS, ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS THAT CONTINUES TO BUILD
WESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TS VONGFONG WILL TRACK GENERALLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
STR CENTERED NORTH OF GUAM. THIS STR IS CURRENTLY BUILDING WESTWARD
TOWARDS NORTHERN LUZON AND WILL RESULT IN SUBSEQUENT STEERING OF TS
01W TO A GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION FROM TAU 24 UNTIL LANDFALL AT
SAMAR ISLAND AT TAU 48. THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
PHILIPINE SEA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HIGH (28-29C)
WHILE VWS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW (5-10 KTS) DURING THIS TIME.
THESE FACTORS, COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL POINT
SOURCE SITUATED ABOVE THE LLCC THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE STRONG
OUTFLOW, SETUP AN ENVIRONMENT FOR POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS OFFSET,
HOWEVER, BY THE INTERACTION OF TS VONGFONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM A
TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL POSITIONED OVER THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THE PEAK
INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AT TAU 48 WHEREUPON THE
SYSTEM WILL STRUGGLE TO FURTHER INTENSIFY AS IT MAKES LANDFALL
DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND. AFTER REACHING LANDFALL
AT TAU 48, TS VONGFONG WILL BEGIN TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 72 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE STEERING STR. NUMERICAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 98 NM
SPREAD AT TAU 48 INCREASING TO A 166NM SPREAD BY TAU 72. THIS SPREAD
OF MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72 TS VONGFONG WILL BEGIN A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
UNTIL TAU 96 AS IT TRAVELS INLAND. THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND
INTERACTION WILL HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND LEAD TO SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER THIS WEAKENING WILL BE OFFSET BY
CONTINUED ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS (5-10 KTS). OUTFLOW
FROM THE TUTT CELL POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPINGE UPON THE OUTFLOW OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INLAND HOWEVER
THIS CELL IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL SOUTHWARD AND CEASE INTERACTION WITH
TS VONGFONG BY TAU 72, AT WHICH POINT IT WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO 60
KTS. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO 50 KTS, PRIMARILY DUE TO
THE LONG TRACK OVER LAND DURING THIS PERIOD. AT THIS TIME IT WILL  
BEGIN TO ROUND THE AXIS OF THE STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND TRACK
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. IT WILL RETAIN ITS INTENSITY OF 50 KTS
DURING THIS TIME DUE TO PERSISTENTLY LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND ROBUST
OUTFLOW. TS 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER THIS
TIME AND REACH THE WARM WATERS OF THE PHILIPPINE SEA NORTH OF APARRI
BY TAU 120. THE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASES TO 166 NM BY TAU
72 AND THEN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES TO 298 NM BY TAU 96. THE
UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE BUILDING
AND REORIENTATION OF THE STEERING RIDGE WITH EACH OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS PROVIDING A DIFFERENT CENTER POSITION OF THE RIDGE AT TAU
96-120. THIS INCREASING SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 72 LENDS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

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 楼主| 发表于 2020-5-13 10:57 | 显示全部楼层

01W预报理由翻译/#05/05-12 18Z

本帖最后由 ___ 于 2020-5-13 19:49 编辑

一、本产品面向气象从业者。

二、6小时总结及分析
        热带风暴黄蜂(01W)位于菲律宾马尼拉东南偏东约505海里,过去6小时内以4节的速度向西北方向移动。Himawari-8机动观测域的强化红外图像显示,低层环流中心上空有紧密而匀称的深对流爆发。过去的三个小时内,黄蜂不时显示出新生风眼的特征,但尚不能维持。然而,5月12日17时11分的AMSR2 89GHz微波图像显示出一个清晰的眼区,因此红外图像中形成稳定的风眼特征已为期不远。初始定位参考上述的AMSR2 89GHz图像给出,可信度为高。我们将CI值评估为T3.0(45节),不过鉴于ADT评估为T3.2(49节),以及黄蜂的结构整体上正在改善,我们将初始强度稍作上调,确定为50节。黄蜂目前途经的环境利于它的快速增强,垂直风切变较低(5-10节),赤向和极向流出良好,海面温度较高(29-30℃)。黄蜂正沿着以北马里亚纳群岛为中心的深层副热带高压脊的西缘移动,该高压脊同时也在持续西伸。

三、预报理由
        A.虽然总体上的路径预报理念没有更改,但根据我们对5月12日12时16分的 ASCAT-A(译者注:应为B星)和13时09分 ASCAT-C数据的重分析,我们将12时的定位向东调整了50海里。这一变化导致目前路径预报比早前的预报更北更东,延长了黄蜂在海面上活动的时间,登陆的时间和地点也发生了重大的改变。因为黄蜂在海上的时间更长,加之地形对其的影响更微弱,所以我们预报的新路径将导致巅峰强度显著提升。
        B.接下来的12小时内,黄蜂将沿着关岛以北的一个深层副热带高压脊的西缘大致往西北移动,而该高压脊目前正在西伸。+12h后,高压脊的中心将变动到20N 130E附近,迫使黄蜂在+12h-36h间采取更西的路径。此后,高压脊转向并东退,令黄蜂在+36h-72h间向西北移动。+48h前,环境依旧对黄蜂的快速增强非常有利:低风切(5-10节)、高海温(29-30℃)以及高空的流出点源提供强劲的流出。我们预计黄蜂在+48h左右接近吕宋岛东南端,并达到95节的峰值强度。在+72h前,大多数数值(ECMWF、GFS、NAVGEM和JGSM)在路径上达成了很好的共识,认为黄蜂并不登陆或仅仅是掠过菲律宾中部的一些岛屿;而UKMET及其系集支持黄蜂采取更南的路径,穿过菲律宾中部地区并进入南海,这是数值中的例外。+72h时,离群值(EGRR和NAVGEM)之间的差距为195海里。在+72h前,我们采纳了上述大多数数值支持的路径,我们的预报路径位于路径集合包络线内的偏北一侧,可信度为中等。
        C.+72h之后,黄蜂将先向西北移动,继而转向北行,最后往东北方向移动,总体上绕着高压脊的脊线运动。当黄蜂到达脊线南侧时,移动速度将放缓,同时穿过吕宋岛北部。此时黄蜂绕脊线旋转,+100h左右出海,随后加速进入菲律宾海。我们预计黄蜂于+84h左右在吕宋中部地区登陆。我们认为黄蜂在掠过吕宋岛东南部时强度维持稳定,因为黄蜂仅仅是经过一些沿岸的水域,而且特别是当西风打开黄蜂北部的流出时,地形的轻微影响会被强劲的流出抵消。黄蜂在+96h前后将穿过吕宋中部,受山区地形的影响经历显著的减弱。一旦黄蜂回到开阔的水域,高风切和低海温将抵消强劲流出的作用,从而令其在台湾岛快速东北行时,强度仅仅维持在较强的热带风暴水平。+72h之后,各个数值的路径预报分为两种截然不同的情况。EGRR和ECMWF支持黄蜂进入南海,并且在+120h之前都在20N以南活动。其它数值则支持另一种情况:黄蜂绕高压脊脊线运动,并沿着与琉球群岛平行的路径东北行,数值间的分歧在于移动速度,但在路径上总体保持一致。+120h时,数值间路径预报的差异达到了965海里,其中大部分是移动速度上的分歧。我们的预报位于多数值平均路径附近,但比平均路径的速度稍慢。由于路径差异(译者注:这里的“spread”或为“speed”)和沿高压脊转向的角度存在高度的不确定性,我们的预报路径中这一部分的可信度较低。

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WDPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING
NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
505 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH
RESOLUTION (1-KM) AND HIGH REFRESH RATE (2-MIN) ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS COMPACT, SYMMETRICAL AND FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. OVER THE
PAST THREE HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS SHOWN INDICATIONS OF A NASCENT EYE
FEATURE AT TIMES BUT IT HASNT YET STUCK. HOWEVER, A 1711Z AMSR2 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTING A CLEAR CUT MICROWAVE EYE, SO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EYE FEATURE IN THE INFRARED CANT BE FAR OFF. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HEDGED UPWARD SLIGHTLY FROM THE PGTW CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) BASED ON AN ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T3.2 (49 KNOTS) AND THE OVERALL IMPROVED
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. TS VONGFONG IS TRAVERSING AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS, GOOD
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS THAT CONTINUES TO BUILD
WESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED, THE PREVIOUS
BEST TRACK POSITION FROM 1200Z HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY
EASTWARD (~50 NM) BASED ON A REANALYSIS OF 1216Z ASCAT-A AND 1309Z
ASCAT-C DATA. THIS CHANGE HAS RESULTED IN A TRACK FORECAST THAT IS
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM
OVER WATER LONGER, AND SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGES THE TIMING AND LOCATION
OF LANDFALL. THE UPDATED TRACK ALSO RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN THE PEAK INTENSITY, AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER AND
WILL BE LESS IMPACTED BY TERRAIN EFFECTS.
   B. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TS VONGFONG WILL TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
STR CENTERED NORTH OF GUAM, WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARDS THE
WEST. AFTER TAU 12, THE STR WILL RECENTER NEAR 20N 130E, AND PUSH TS
VONGFONG ONTO A MORE WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 36. THEREAFTER, THE STR
REORIENTS AND MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST, ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM
TO BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BY TAU 72. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48 WITH LOW VWS
(5-10 KNOTS), HIGH SSTS (29-30 CELSIUS) AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW
PROVIDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF LUZON. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH THE MAJORITY (INCLUDING ECMWF, GFS,
NAVGEM AND JGSM) ALL FAVORING A TRACK THAT REMAINS OFFSHORE OR JUST
BRUSHES THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, WHILE THE UKMET AND ITS
ENSEMBLE ARE THE SOLE SOLUTIONS THAT FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MODEL
SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS 195NM BETWEEN OUTLIERS (EGRR AND NAVGEM). THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 FAVORS THE AFOREMENTIONED CLUSTER OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH LIE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE
WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
   C. AFTER TAU 72 TS VONGFONG WILL MOVE FIRST NORTHWESTWARD, THEN
NORTH AND FINALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT RECURVES AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS.
TRACK SPEED WILL SLOW AS IT REACHES THE RIDGE AXIS, SIMULTANEOUS TO
MOVING OVER NORTHERN LUZON, AND THEN ACCELERATE INTO THE PHILIPPINE
SEA AFTER ROUNDING THE AXIS AND EMERGING OVER WATER AROUND TAU 100. A
SECOND LANDFALL IS EXPECTED IN CENTRAL LUZON AROUND TAU 84. AS THE
SYSTEM SKIRTS SOUTHEAST LUZON, THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
STEADY AS IT TRACKS OVER COASTAL WATERS AND FEELS SOME EFFECTS OF THE
TERRAIN OFFSET BY THE CONTINUED STRONG OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY POLEWARD
AS THE OUTFLOW PATTERN BEGINS TO TAP INTO THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW TO
THE NORTH. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER CENTRAL LUZON BY TAU 96 IT WILL
UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DUE PRIMARILY TO INTERACTION WITH THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ONCE BACK OVER OPEN WATERS, INCREASING VWS AND
COOLER WATERS WILL SERVE TO OFFSET STRONG, DIVERGENT OUTFLOW RESULTING
IN IT MAINTAINING STRONG TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT RAPIDLY MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD EAST OF TAIWAN. MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TAU 72 DIVERGES
SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH TWO BASIC SCENARIOS. THE EGRR AND ECMWF FAVOR
TAKING THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND KEEPING IT BELOW 20N
LATITUDE THROUGH TAU 120. THE OTHER SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE REMAINDER
OF AVAILABLE MODEL TRACKS, RECURVES THE SYSTEM AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS
AND TRACKS IT NORTHEAST PARALLEL THE RYUKU ISLANDS, VARYING IN THE
SPEED OF ADVANCE BUT GENERALLY AGREEING ON THE TRACK. THE SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE AT TAU 120 IS 965 NM WITH MOST OF THIS COMPRISING ALONG-
TRACK SPREAD. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TRACK BUT SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS TRACK SPEED.  THE HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK SPREAD AND SHARPNESS OF THE RECURVE LENDS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

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发表于 2020-5-13 11:00 | 显示全部楼层

01W预报理由翻译/#06/05-13 00Z

本帖最后由 jat4 于 2020-5-13 12:04 编辑

1.     本产品面向气象专业人员
2.     6小时总结与分析
热带风暴(TS)01W黄蜂目前位于菲律宾马尼拉东南偏东大约491海里。在过去6小时以4节的速度向西移动。高分辨率的机动观测域增强红外云图显示出一块深对流和绕中心旋转的对流热塔(convective hot tower)。对流热塔和上冲云顶约一小时爆发一次,和正在生成的眼相互作用,然后消散。在过去的几小时,深对流中的暖点得以维持,黄蜂很快将发展出一个风眼。初始定位是基于可见光图像中的塌陷和红外图像的暖点,以及12日2211Z SSMIS 91GHZ PCT图像显示出的底层眼得出,可信度高。初始强度为60节,稍高于PGTW所给出CI值T3.5(对应55节)的对应强度,这是因为黄蜂即将发展出风眼。同时,ADT给出T3.4(对应54节)的评价。当风眼出现之后,黄蜂的强度将有大幅度上升。黄蜂正处于低风切(5-10节),高海温的环境中,并有着强烈的赤向流出,预计将继续快速增强。但是,相对较干燥的空气正被卷入黄蜂西南侧,从而影响了该象限的流出,限制了黄蜂的加强速度。在过去6小时,黄蜂采取了有些出乎意料的路径,先是停滞了一段时间,再向西-西南方向移动。大气高层的分析显示副热带高压脊中心在关岛东部,并且西伸速度比预计更快,使得黄蜂会采取更西的路径。
3.     预报理由
A.    对比上一报,本报的预报理念没有显著的更改
B.     上文提到黄蜂的路径比预计的更西,并且该趋势将会持续至+12h,此时黄蜂沿着西伸的高压脊西南缘向西移动。从+12h到+72h,高压脊的中心将移动至130E,黄蜂将逐渐转西北方向移动。在+48h之后,高压脊将东退,轴位于约18N,黄蜂转为西北移动。由于高海温,低风切,以及强烈的流出,预计黄蜂在未来24小时会快速增强。虽然目前黄蜂正被干空气困扰,但是预计6至12小时后干空气会转湿,强度得以快速提升。在+24小时后黄蜂加强速度将减缓,在+48h登陆卡坦端内斯岛前达到95节的巅峰。黄蜂在穿越该岛时预计强度将维持,因为会很快回到吕宋以西的高海温洋面上。在+72h之后黄蜂将在吕宋东岸二次登陆。在此时段模式分歧较小,在+48h为137海里,在+72h将增至195海里。大部分模式(ECMWF,GFS,NAVGEM,JGSM以及其系集)都报出黄蜂采取偏西-西北的路径,可能在萨马岛东岸和吕宋岛东南岸擦过或者不登陆。剩下的模式(GALWEM,UKMET以及其系集)则认为黄蜂采取更加偏南的路径在菲中登陆并进入南海。JTWC的路径预测倾向于更多模式支持的路径,有很高的预测信心。
C.    在+72h之后,模式不确定性增大,但总体都预报黄蜂将转向。在二次登陆之后,黄蜂将绕着高压脊加速向北移动,在+96h进入吕宋海峡。在+120h黄蜂将快速朝东北方向移动,掠过琉球东南部,接入西风带并开始向温带气旋转化。预计黄蜂在登陆吕宋之后受陆地影响强度将大幅减弱。黄蜂在回到海面之后,快速增强的风切和较低海温将抵消掉强烈流出带来的发展可能,所以还将继续减弱。所有模式在+72h预报的路径大致相同,但移动速度却有很大分歧,造成了路径预报非常大的不确定性。在+120h,两个离群点(EGRR和GFS)之间的分歧达到了将近1000海里。但是大部分模式的分歧在650海里以内。JTWC的路径预报非常接近于多模式平均路径,但移速相对更慢。由于在移速预报上有非常大的不确定性,这段路径的预报信心较低。

wp0120.gif


01W_130000sair.jpg

20200512.2211.f17.91pct.01W.VONGFONG.50kts.996mb.11.9N.129.2E.095pc.jpg

wgmswvirZ.GIF

WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING
NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
491 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED HIGH RESOLUTION
(1-KM) AND HIGH REFRESH RATE (2-MIN) ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH
FLARING CONVECTIVE HOT TOWERS ROTATING ABOUT THE ASSESSED CENTER
LOCATION. THESE HOT TOWERS AND OVERSHOOTING TOPS WILL FLARE ABOUT ONCE
PER HOUR, FLIRT WITH FORMING AN EYE AND THEN DISSIPATE. OVER THE PAST
HOUR HOWEVER THE WARM SPOT HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF A BIT MORE
SO DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOUD FILLED EYE COULD BE IMMINENT. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE DIMPLE IN THE
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ACCOMPANYING WARM SPOT IN THE INFRARED, SUPPORTED
BY A 2211Z SSMIS 91 GHZ COLORPCT MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWED A
DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE. SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS HEDGED UPWARD SLIGHTLY FROM THE PGTW CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) IN LIGHT OF THE NASCENT EYE
DEVELOPMENT, AND IS SUPPORTED BY AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT)
ESTIMATE OF T3.4 (54 KNOTS). EXPECT THAT ONCE THE EYE DOES FORM
INTENSITIES WILL JUMP UP DRAMATICALLY. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW (5-10 KTS)
VWS, WARM SSTS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, A WEDGE OF
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM, IMPINGING THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS QUADRANT, AND PROVING
TO A LIMITING FACTOR ON EVEN FASTER INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM.
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS THE SYSTEM TOOK A BIT OF AN UNEXPECTED MOTION,
BECOMING NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY FOR A SHORT TIME AND THEN MOVING DUE
WEST OR EVEN SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE.
UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ANALYSIS INDICATES THE STR CENTERED WELL TO THE
EAST NEAR GUAM BUILT IN AND EXTENDED WESTWARD FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED,
PUSHING TS 01W ONTO THE MORE WESTWARD TRACK.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BULLETIN.  
   B. AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED THE RECENT MOTION HAS BEEN MORE WESTWARD
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH
TS 01W MOVING VERY CLOSE TO DUE WEST THROUGH TAU 12 ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR STILL
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN MARIANAS. AFTER TAU 12 AND THROUGH TAU 72,
THE STR BECOMES RECENTERED FURTHER WEST NEAR 130E AND TS 01W WILL
GRADUALLY TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS TIME PROGRESSES. THE STR WILL
MOVE BACK EAST-SOUTHEAST AFTER TAU 48 WITH A RIDGE AXIS LYING NEAR 18N
LATITUDE AND TS 01W WILL BY THIS TIME START TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS THE RIDGE AXIS. TS VONGFONG IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM WATERS, LOW VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW.
WHILE THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
WHICH IS LIMITING DEVELOPMENT, THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN
OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS ALLOWING MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO
OCCUR. AFTER TAU 24 THE INTENSIFICATION TREND IS EXPECTED CONTINUE,
ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS JUST
PRIOR TO LANDFALL AT CATANDUANES ISLAND NEAR TAU 48, THEN MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AS IT CROSSES BACK INTO OPEN WATERS EAST OF LUZON. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
CENTRAL LUZON JUST AFTER TAU 72. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A SPREAD OF 137 NM, INCREASING TO 195 NM
BY TAU 72. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS (ECMWF, GFS, NAVGEM, JGSM AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES) ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHICH STAYS
EITHER OFFSHORE OR JUST BRUSHES THE EAST COAST OF SAMAR AND SOUTHEAST
LUZON. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS (GALWEM, UKMET AND THE ENSEMBLE)
TAKE A TRACK FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES AND INTO THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE JTWC OFFICIAL TRACK LIES ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF
THE TIGHTEST GROUPING OF MODELS MENTIONED EARLIER AND JUST NORTH AND
EAST OF THE MULT-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN IN REFERENCE TO
THE EXACT TRACK, THOUGH ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE GENERAL
RECURVE SCENARIO. AFTER MAKING ITS SECOND LANDFALL IN EAST-CENTRAL
LUZON TS VONGFONG WILL MOVE ACCELERATE NORTHWARD WHILE ROUNDING THE
RIDGE AXIS AND REEMERGE INTO THE LUZON STRAIT BY TAU 96. BY TAU 120
THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD SOUTHEAST OF THE RYUKU
ISLANDS WHILST UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MOVES UNDER
THE DEEP MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. TS 01W IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY
WEAKEN AFTER MAKIN LANDFALL ON LUZON DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION, THEN
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING BACK OVER WATER DUE TO RAPIDLY
INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SSTS WHICH WILL COMBINE TO OFFSET THE VERY
ROBUST OUTFLOW. ALL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE TRACK
SCENARIO BEYOND TAU 72, BUT DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE ALONG-TRACK
SPEED, LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK.
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES TO NEARLY 1000 NM BY TAU 120 BETWEEN THE
EGRR AND GFS OUTLIERS. HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE FALLS INTO
A GPCE ELLIPSE OF ABOUT 650 NM. THE JTWC TRACK LIES VERY NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND A COUPLE OF KNOTS SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS
TRACK SPEED. IN LIGHT OF THE HIGH AMOUNT OF ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.//
NNNN

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发表于 2020-5-13 17:54 | 显示全部楼层

01W预报理由翻译/#07/05-13 06Z

本帖最后由 MTWP 于 2020-5-13 21:07 编辑

1. 本产品面向气象专业人员。
2. 6小时总结与分析
  台风黄蜂(01W)位于菲律宾马尼拉东南东方向465海里的海面上,过去六小时以4节的速度向西北西方向移动。多光谱红外线卫星云图(MSI)动画显示对称的螺旋雨带正卷绕进中心。虽然中心对流不断爆出,但已经有塌陷的迹象。另外,增强红外线云图(EIR)动画显示系统中心的云顶温度正在下降,说明系统即将开眼。JTWC根据可见光云图的塌陷点和EIR动画显示的眼结构进行定位,结果也与JTWC、JMA和CWB的德法分析相符合,因此定位具有较高的置信度。由于系统即将开眼,结构良好,JTWC给出的定强为70节,高于JTWC当前T4.0的德法分析结果。系统周围的环境仍然对持续快速增强有利:有较低的垂直风切变(5-10节)[1],较高的海表温度(29-30℃)[2]和持续的高空流出[3]。一道深厚的副热带高压正在引导台风黄蜂移动。这道高压位于关岛附近,西伸到了吕宋海峡。
3. 预报理由
  A. 与上一报相比,本报的预报原则并没有太大的改变。
  B. 未来36小时内,台风黄蜂将继续由副高引导,向西北西方向移动。这片区域的环境会一直有利于系统的快速发展:有较高的海表温度(29-30℃),较低的垂直风切变(5-10节)和高空流出。系统在这样的环境下将能够加强到100节,然后它将穿过卡坦端内斯岛。未来48小时,系统受地形摩擦影响,将略微减弱至95节,不过优良的环境和持续的流出仍然支持它不进一步减弱。未来48小时后,台风黄蜂将逐渐转向,向西北北方向加速移动。未来72小时,系统就会在吕宋二次登陆,登陆后受地形影响强度会减弱到85节。模式对这一过程的分歧不大,48小时内预测路径极差仅有167海里。不过,由于副高的变化是动态的,所以在转向的节点上各数值产生了分歧,72小时预报的极差增大到了350海里。GFS、NAVGEM和JGSM模式均预报黄蜂将穿过吕宋岛,而ECMWF、AFUM和UKMET则认为黄蜂的路径会更偏西而进入南海。JTWC的官方预报路径位于更多模式支持的路径东侧,也就是多模型共识的东北,总体而言这一部分的预报置信度中等。
  C. 未来72小时以后,台风黄蜂将越过副高的中轴,并大体向东北北方向移动。未来96小时,系统将离开吕宋岛并回到菲律宾海,并且会接上西风急流,但地形摩擦和增强的风切(20-25节)仍然会使系统减弱至65节。未来120小时,系统将穿过吕宋海峡并持续减弱,然后开始转化为温带气旋。模式在这一阶段的分歧更为严重,未来96小时的极差达到424海里,而未来120小时更是达到了898海里(未去除孤立值)。模式预报的严重分歧说明这一阶段黄蜂的路径不确定度很高,因此这一阶段的JTWC预报路径置信度较低。
wp0120.gif
01W_130900sair.jpg

[1]
wgmsshr-1.GIF
[2]
cdas-sflux_sst_wpac_1.png
[3]
wgmswvir-1.GIF
WDPN31 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01W (VONGFONG) WARNING
NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 01W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SYMMETRICAL, SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO A
CENTER THAT CONTINUES TO BE OBSCURED BY CONVECTION. A DIMPLE IN THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FORM, HOWEVER. THIS FEATURE, ALONG
WITH A COOLING TREND OF THE SYSTEM CENTER NOTED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY, INDICATES THAT EYE FORMATION IS IMMINENT.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
DIMPLE IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL AN EYE FEATURE NOTED IN THE
EIR LOOP AND IS INLINE WITH FIXES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND RCTP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KTS) DUE TO THE IMPENDING EYE
FORMATION AND STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH LOW (5-10 KTS)
VWS, WARM SSTS (29-30 C) AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. TY VONGFONG
IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST
NEAR GUAM WHICH IS EXTENDING WEST TOWARD THE LUZON STRAIT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BULLETIN.  
   B. TY VONGFONG WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING STR TO THE EAST.
CONDITIONS IN THE AREA WILL REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION WITH CONTINUED WARM (29-30 C) SSTS, LOW (5-10 KTS)
VWS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
INTENSIFY TO 100 KTS BY TAU 36 WHEREUPON IT WILL BEGIN TO CROSS OVER
CATANDUANES ISLAND. A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM TO 95 KTS BY
TAU 48 WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND, HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE OFFSET BY CONTINUED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND ROBUST
OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 48, TY VONGFONG WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND
ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO RECURVE AROUND THE STR. BY TAU 72, THE
SYSTEM WILL REACH LANDFALL FOR A SECOND TIME OVER LUZON WHEREUPON IT
WILL WEAKEN TO 85 KTS DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A SPREAD OF 167 NM. THE
DEVIATION OF MODEL SOLUTIONS IS DUE TO THE DYNAMIC NATURE OF A
REORIENTATION OF THE STEERING STR AND RESULTS IN ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE RECURVATURE. CROSS TRACK SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASE TO 350 NM BY TAU 72. GFS, NAVGEM AND JGSM
MODEL SOLUTIONS ALL BRING THE SYSTEM OVER LUZON BY TAU 72 WHEREAS
ECMWF, AFUM AND UKMET SOLUTIONS PROVIDE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK,
BRINGING TY VONGFONG INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE OFFICIAL JTWC
FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE TIGHTEST GROUPING OF
MODELS MENTIONED EARLIER (GFS, NAVGEM AND JGSM) AND JUST NORTH AND
EAST OF THE MULT-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK, LENDING OVERALL FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY VONGFONG WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN A
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. AS IT TRAVELS OVER LUZON AND
REENTERS THE PHILIPINE SEA IT WILL WEAKEN TO 65 KTS BY TAU 96 DUE TO
THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND AND INCREASING VWS (20-25 KTS),
ALTHOUGH POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ROBUST AS IT TAPS
INTO THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE
AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS INTO THE LUZON STRAIT, EVENTUALLY WEAKENING TO
50 KTS BY TAU 120, AT WHICH TIME IT WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FURTHER AFTER TAU 72
WITH A CROSS TRACK SPREAD OF 424 NM BY TAU 96. ADDITIONALLY, THE
ALONG TRACK SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY TAU
120 WITH A SPREAD OF 898 NM WHEN ALL MEMBERS OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS ARE INCLUDED. THE LARGE SPREAD IN BOTH ALONG AND CROSS
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS HIGH UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD AND
THUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

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