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[2020] 西澳西北一级热带气旋“芒果”(17U/27S.Mangga) - 五月印尼命名旋,转温后影响西澳

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霜雪之后,必有阳春

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发表于 2020-5-18 00:59 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 327 于 2020-5-26 12:00 编辑

98S GENESIS004 200517 1200 6.7S 94.2E SHEM 15 1010

20200517.1640.himawari-8.ir.98S.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.6.7S.94.2E.100pc.jpg

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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
红豆棒冰冰 + 3 + 3 98S

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人生1度きり!全力で楽しむ!

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发表于 2020-5-18 02:35 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:LOW

本帖最后由 tcfa_gw 于 2020-5-18 06:09 编辑

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.7S
94.2E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF BROAD
TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 98S
IN AN AREA MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY
HIGH (>25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT 98S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD WITH SLOW, STEADY
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE TURNING TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg
茨の道を走ってゆく
否定されても僕は笑うよ
間違っても 何度でも 諦めない
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发表于 2020-5-18 09:31 | 显示全部楼层
这地方大半个月以来已经连出了96S97S、98S三个扰动了,现在ECMWF、GFS也都支持98S成旋,看最后能不能发展起来
ecmwf_z500_mslp_io_fh0-216.gif
sio.png
gfs_mslp_wind_io_12.png
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发表于 2020-5-18 15:17 | 显示全部楼层
红豆棒冰冰 发表于 2020-5-18 09:31
这地方大半个月以来已经连出了96S、97S、98S三个扰动了,现在ECMWF、GFS也都支持98S成旋,看最后能不能发展 ...

wm5shr-2-2.gif
感觉也都是被切死的料
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Severe Tropical Storm

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发表于 2020-5-18 15:30 | 显示全部楼层
Suspect area with minimum pressure 1005 mb is observed in Indian Ocean near 6.7 S 92.9 E, about 1092 km Southwest of Bengkulu , and moving West-Southwest 2 km/hr.

Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:

Tuesday (tomorrow) : small possibility
Wednesday (tomorrow +1): medium  possibility
Thursday (tomorrow +2) : large possibility
20200518152850.png
There are no tropical systems in the region and none are expected to develop in the next three days.

Staff are monitoring the possible development of a tropical system to the north of the Western Region near 06S094E during Wednesday with potential to move south to lie near the northern border of the Western Region during Thursday.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Very Low
98S_geps_latest.png
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发表于 2020-5-19 04:53 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:LOW

本帖最后由 tcfa_gw 于 2020-5-19 04:54 编辑

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.7S 94.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 91.7E, APPROXIMATELY 508 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 181508Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE,
DEPICT A VERY BROAD AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION SCATTERED AROUND THE PERIPHERY. A 181509Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS THE BROAD, ELONGATED, WEAK LLC WITH A
SMALL AREA OF 15 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST. 98S IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 98S WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE CONSOLIDATING, REACHING WARNING CRITERIA IN 2 TO
3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
abpwsair.jpg 20200518.1508.metopb.89rgb.98S.INVEST.15kts.1005mb.5.1S.92.3E.090pc.jpg LATEST.jpg
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否定されても僕は笑うよ
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发表于 2020-5-19 18:35 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-5-19 18:36 编辑

Suspect area with minimum pressure 1004 mb is observed in Indian Ocean Southwest of Sumatra near 6.2 S 91.2 E, about 1.251 km Southwest of Bengkulu, and moving  West - Southwest 4 km/hr.

Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:

Wednesday (tomorrow) : small possibility
Thursday (tomorrow +1): medium possibility
Friday (tomorrow +2) : large possibility
98S_tracks_latest.png
A tropical low lies to the north of the Western Region near 5.0S 94.5E, about 840 kilometres north northwest of The Cocos Islands. The low is expected to be slow moving toward the south and enter the Western Region late Thursday or during Friday. There is a low risk that it may develop into a tropical cyclone from Thusday. It is forecast to adopt a more southeasterly motion on Friday passing west of The Cocos Islands as it moves through the Indian Ocean towards northwest WA. It may approach the northwest WA on Sunday but is unlikely to be a tropical cyclone by this time.

Even is this system does not develop into a tropical cyclone, strong to gale force winds and heavy rainfall may impact Cocos Island if the low passes close by. See latest Cocos Island forecast [ http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/cocos-islands.shtml ] for further details.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Low
Friday:Low
98S_gefs_latest.png
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发表于 2020-5-20 02:01 | 显示全部楼层

JTWC:UPGRADED TO MEDIUM

本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2020-5-20 15:19 编辑

ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZMAY2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191351ZMAY2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 19MAY20 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 87.0E, APPROXIMATELY 322 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
KOLKATA, INDIA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100
KNOTS GUSTING TO 125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 191500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.4S 91.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5S 92.5E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 191259Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICT A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION
SCATTERED AROUND THE PERIPHERY. INVEST 98S IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT INVEST 98S WILL TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD WHILE CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
abpwsair_202005191800.jpg
20200519.1259.f17.91pct91h91v.98S.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.6.2S.91.2E.065pc.jpg
gfs_mslp_wind_io_9.png
98S_tracks_latest.png
98S_gefs_latest.png
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发表于 2020-5-20 09:42 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-5-20 18:50 编辑

WTXS21 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.2S 92.0E TO 9.6S 93.2E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
200000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.6S
92.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.5S
92.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.6S 92.1E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM NORTHWEST
OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG
WITH A 200006Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICT A VERY BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION SCATTERED
AROUND THE PERIPHERY. INVEST 98S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT INVEST 98S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND
THEN SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210300Z.//
NNNN
sh9820.gif
98S_200300sair.jpg
abiosair.jpg
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发表于 2020-5-20 17:56 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 红豆棒冰冰 于 2020-5-20 18:08 编辑

BMKG似乎已经不再在展望中提及此系统
Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics
Jakarta Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC)

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Southern Indonesia area
Issued Wednesday, 20 May 2020 08.00 Western Indonesia Time

Current Tropical Cyclone in the Southern Indonesia area:
None.

Tropical cyclone development possibility:
No tropical cyclone development in the next 3 days.

Possibility to develop into tropical cyclone:
Thursday (tomorrow) : small possibility
Friday (tomorrow +1): small possibility
Saturday (tomorrow +2) : small possibility
BOM则已经将其认定为热带低压,并预报科科斯群岛可能会有风雨影响
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 2:00 pm WST on Wednesday 20 May 2020
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 23 May 2020.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

At 1pm WST Wednesday a tropical low was located to the north of the Western Region near 5.8S 92.6E, about 850 kilometres north northwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands. The low is expected to be slow moving toward the south and enter the Western Region late Thursday or during Friday. There is a low risk that it may develop into a tropical cyclone from Thursday. It is forecast to adopt a more southeasterly motion on Friday passing west of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands as it moves through the Indian Ocean towards northwest WA. It may approach the northwest of WA during Sunday but is unlikely to be a tropical cyclone by this time.

Even is this system does not develop into a tropical cyclone, strong to gale force winds and heavy rainfall are possible at the Cocos (Keeling) Islands during Friday or early Saturday as the system passes to the west. See latest Cocos Island forecast [http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/cocos-islands.shtml ] for further details.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday:Low
Friday:Low
Saturday:Low
sio.png
98S_tracks_latest.png
98S_gefs_latest.png
98S_geps_latest.png
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