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[报文翻译] [2020] 2002号热带气旋“鹦鹉”(02W.Nuri)JTWC预报理由翻译帖

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发表于 2020-6-12 00:52 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2020-6-15 11:20 编辑

鉴于该热带系统未来发展形势良好,且将影响我国华南沿海以及南海海区,特开此帖。

2002号热带气旋“鹦鹉”(02W.Nuri)JTWC预报理由翻译帖
警报编号
时间
翻译者
翻译形式
楼层
备注
TCFA (111500Z)
06-11 1500Z
1007圆规
全文

#01
06-12 0000Z
1007圆规
全文

#02
06-12 0600Z
___
全文

#03
06-12 1200Z
MTWP
全文

#04
06-12 1800Z
MTWP
全文

#05
06-13 0000Z
MTWP
全文

#06
06-13 0600Z
MTWP
全文

#07
06-13 1200Z
1007圆规
全文

#08
06-13 1800Z
___
全文

#09 (FW)
06-14 0000Z
MTWP
全文


翻译说明:
1、本帖翻译JTWC报文,时间以协调世界时作准。
2、翻译前为防止重复翻译原则上需要预约,可以直接回帖预约或发私信至开帖人预约。
3、为信息展示需要,请将报文原文和译文放置于同一楼层。若回帖预约的,请将翻译放在预约帖。
4、有时间的童鞋建议全文翻译,我们也鼓励抓要点进行简单翻译,简单翻译的要点: 发报时定位,过去的移动速度、结构、强度、环境场,未来的强度、路径、环境场,数值的预测。
5、本帖不允许发与翻译和预约不相符的内容,否则将被视为灌水删帖处理。
6、翻译中若有其他任何疑惑,欢迎加入翻译小组QQ群280857254加入我们的讨论。

规则说明:https://bbs.typhoon.org.cn/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=34364#pid1147015


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 楼主| 发表于 2020-6-12 01:05 | 显示全部楼层

98W预报理由翻译/TCFA/06-11 1500Z

一、在接下来的12-24小时内,14.6N 122.5E到18.2N 117.1E连线的两侧160海里的范围中可能生成一个热带气旋。现有的数据尚不支持此时发布热带气旋警报。该区域内的风速约为18至23节。6月11日12时的卫星图像显示,系统的环流中心位于14.7N 122.3E附近,正以8节的速度往西北偏西方向移动。

二、备注:扰动98W早前位于14.0N 123.4E附近,现位于14.7N 122.3E附近,即菲律宾马尼拉以东约75海里。红外线增强云图动画显示系统的低层环流被深对流部分覆盖。6月11日09时03分的SSMIS 91GHZ微波扫描图像显示螺旋雨带正在形成并卷入一个宽阔、较弱但可辨认的中心。同时良好的高空环境条件、较低(小于15节)的垂直风切变和强劲的流出均有益于系统的发展。然而与陆地的摩擦仍然在阻碍系统的发展。全球数值模式一致认为98W将继续向西北方向移动越过吕宋岛南部,并在18小时后进入南海缓慢发展。当系统从吕宋岛出海向西移动时将会快速整合并增强。其海平面最大持续风约为18至23节,最低气压约为1004百帕。未来24小时内该热带气旋形成的可能性评估为高。

三、此警报将于6月12日15时前更新、升格为热带气旋警报或者撤销。
wp9820.gif 20200611.0903.f18.91h.98W.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.14.4N.123.1E.050pc.jpg wgmssht.gif wgmswv.gif
WTPN21 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 122.5E TO 18.2N 117.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
111200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N
122.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 123.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 122.3E, APPROXIMATELY
75 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 110903Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, WEAKLY-DEFINED CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ROBUST
OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH LAND CONTINUES TO HINDER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN LUZON WITH SLOW
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA AFTER TAU 18. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD AWAY FROM LUZON, IT
WILL CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
121500Z.//
NNNN


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 楼主| 发表于 2020-6-12 19:53 | 显示全部楼层

02W预报理由翻译/#01/06-12 00Z

1.气象从业者专用
2.过去6小时小结与分析
热带低压02W(暂无名),目前位于菲律宾马尼拉西北约117海里的洋面上。在过去的6小时,系统以每小时14节的速度向西移动。多光谱卫星云图(MSI)动画显示一个宽阔但略无组织的环流中心,正在爆发的深对流将会西移并遮蔽低层环流中心(LLCC)。初始的定位根据11日22时24分的WINDSAT 37 GHZ微波图像以及菲律宾雷达拼图得出,信心中等,两者都显示出了环流中心宽阔的轮廓。由于JTWC给出了T2.0(对应30节)、JMA给出了T1.5(对应25节)的德法分析,我们给出30节的初始定强,信心中等。分析表明,热带低压01W(译者注:应为02W)总体上正处在有利的环境当中:较低(5-10节)的垂直风切变、中等的赤向流出以及非常高(30-31°C)的表层海温,同时高层分析显示系统上方有一个点源,控制该区域东北方向流出的是一个位于台湾上空的高空反气旋,该反气旋也在系统北部增压。系统目前沿一条深厚的副热带高压脊的西南边缘移动,这条脊的中心位于菲律宾海。
3. 预报理由
A. 本报是第一报预报理由,确定了预报原理。
B.热带低压02W在未来72小时内将会继续向西北方向移动,并在48小时后登陆香港西南方的陆地。02W在未来36小时内将会在良好的环境中稳步增强并达到55节的巅峰强度。正如前面所说,未来唯一阻碍增强的因素将会是系统能应付多少来自台湾上空高空反气旋的增压。目前系统低层环流中心已经进入了南海,预料系统将快速整合,但同时副中心持续发展也阻碍了系统的降压和稳步增强。如果系统整合速度慢,则东北方向的流出将阻碍副中心的发展从而使系统有趋势增强。在未来36小时达到55kt的巅峰强度后,增强的辐合、较低的海水表层温度和增强的垂直风切变将会在系统登陆前使系统减弱。一旦系统登陆将会快速减弱,并在96小时后在陆地上消散。各数值模型预报都相当一致,其中HWRF是预报最左边的离群值,GFS是预报最右边的离群值。我们(JTWC)对系统路径的预报接近多模式数值集合预报,预报信心为高。对强度的预报比多模式数值集合要高,但略低于HWRF的预测,预报信心为低。
4.预报理由更正
拼写错误,第2段系统编号数字错误以及第3段B篇的预报路径错误。
02W 06.12 00Z.gif 111100ozlb448b0z4868qk.jpg 20200611.2224.coriolis.37h.98W.INVEST.20kts.1004mb.15.8N.121E.085pc.jpg wgmswvir-3.gif wgmssht-3.gif cdas-sflux_sst_wpac_1.png
WDPN31 PGTW 120300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO)
WARNING NR 001 CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION,
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE WEST AS WELL AS OBSCURING
THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION
OF A 112224Z WINDSAT 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, AS WELL AS PHILIPPINE
RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY, BOTH OF WHICH DEPICTED THE BROAD OUTLINES OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS
ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE AND HEDGED TOWARD THE HIGHER END
OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 1.5 (25 KNTOS) FROM
RJTD AND 2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 02W LIES IN
AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10KT) VWS, MODERATE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS). WHILE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE PRESENCE OF A SMALL
POINT SOURCE OVER THE SYSTEM, THE PREDOMINATE FLOW IN THE REGION IS
NORTHEASTERLY FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER TAIWAN, WHICH IS
PRODUCING SOME PRESSURE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
STR CENTERED IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A.  THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TD 02W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH
TAU 72, MAKING LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG JUST AFTER TAU 48. TD
02W IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 36, REACHING A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THE ONLY INHIBITOR TO THE INTENSIFICATION
TREND WILL BE HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM CAN FIGHT OFF THE PRESSURE
EMANATING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE OVER TAIWAN. THE FORECAST ANTICIPATES
RAPID CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC NOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS EMERGED OVER
WATER IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AND SUBSEQUENT INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SECONDARY CIRCULATION ALOFT, ALLOWING IT TO OVERCOME THE PRESSURE
AND INTENSIFY STEADILY. IF THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES AT A SLOWER RATE,
THEN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SECONDARY CIRCULATION AND THUS THE INTENSITY TREND. AFTER PEAKING AT
55 KNOTS AT TAU 36, INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALOFT, COOLER SSTS AND
INCREASING VWS WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
ONCE OVER LAND THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN, DISSIPATING OVER LAND
BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THOUGH
THE ENTIRETY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HWRF BEING THE LEFT
OUTLIER AND THE GFS BEING THE RIGHT OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES
VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HEDGED
TOWARDS BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE HWRF SOLUTION WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: FIXED SPELLING ERRORS, STORM NUMBER
IN PARAGRAPH 2 AND FORECAST TRACK MOTION IN PARAGRAPH 3.B.//
NNNN


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发表于 2020-6-12 21:16 | 显示全部楼层

02W预报理由翻译/#02/06-12 06Z

本帖最后由 ___ 于 2020-6-14 18:13 编辑

一、本预报面向气象从业者

二、6小时总结分析
        位于香港东南约387海里的热带低压02W在过去6小时内以15节的速度向西北西方向移动。卫星强化红外动画显示,系统的西半圆方位持续存在一大团深对流。6月12日5时53分的AMSR 89gHz的扫描图像表明,该深对流位于外侧一个沿低层环流中心(LLCC)南象限卷绕的螺旋雨带中。36gHz的扫描图像同样显示了一条形成云带卷绕着广阔却难以辨别的LLCC。幸运的是,6月12日2时7分的ASCAT-B图像显示,系统的环流具有25-30节的风力,中心能够辨认但较为狭长,以此为可靠的依据,我们确定了系统的初始位置和30节的初始强度,可信度为良好。德沃夏克分析法的估计值为T1.5-2.0(25-30节),同样符合我们的初始强度评估,不过ADT在6月12日6时30分 给出了T2.5(35节)的估计值,略高于我们的评估。02W的高层条件仍然有利:垂直风切变较低,赤向流出良好;此外,系统还拥有流向东侧16N 135E附近的弱TUTT的极向流出,但该TUTT延伸至系统北部的高空槽对系统的极向流出有所阻碍;30-31℃的海温和较高的OHC同样支持系统的进一步发展。目前,02W正沿着位于北侧和东北侧的一个深层副热带高压脊的南缘快速移动。

三、预报理由
        A.对比上一报,本报的预报理由没有显著的改动。
        B. 在上述高压脊的影响下,我们预计02W将在整个预测期间内向西北方向移动。在+36h处,数值的路径预报之间的差距约为100海里,达成良好的共识。在+36h之后,随着02W继续沿高压脊西北移动,某些数值的路径与大部分数值产生分歧,显示出一个逐渐南偏的过程。ECMWF和GFS的系集的大多数成员支持02W在香港西南部登陆,和我们的预报路径大致相符。预计在总体有利的环境下,02W将于+36h时达到55节的峰值,但垂直风切变也会在+12-24h内增强至中等水平,这可能会02W减缓增强的速度。+40h后,02W将登陆,届时受较强的风切(25-30节)和陆地的削弱,系统将迅速减弱。总体来说,我们路径预测的可信度为高。
1206_wp0220.gif
02W_120600sair.jpg
20200612.0553.gw1.89hbt.02W.TWO.30kts.1001mb.17.1N.117.7E.64pc.jpg
20200612.0553.gw1.36hbt.02W.TWO.30kts.1001mb.17.1N.117.7E.64pc.jpg
20200612.0208.mtb.ASCAT.wind.02W.TWO.30kts-1002mb.160N.1196E.25km.jpeg
wgmswvirZ.GIF
WDPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO)
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 387
NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. A 120553Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES THAT THIS INTENSE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN THE OUTER
SPIRAL BANDING, WHICH WRAPS INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE 36GHZ IMAGE ALSO REVEALS FORMATIVE
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD, ILL-DEFINED LLCC. FORTUNATELY, A
120207Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH
25-30 KNOT WINDS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 30 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25 TO 30 KNOTS)
AND ALSO SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WHILE A 120630Z ADT
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER. UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A WEAK TUTT CELL
POSITIONED TO THE EAST NEAR 16N 135E; HOWEVER, A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS HINDERING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SST (30-31C) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TD 02W IS TRACKING QUICKLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.     
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 100NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A GRADUAL RECURVE AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ENSEMBLE DATA ALSO SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH THE
BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS SUPPORTING LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. TD
02W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 36 UNDER
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, VWS SHOULD INCREASE TO
MODERATE LEVELS BY TAU 12-24, WHICH MAY SLOW INTENSIFICATION. AFTER
TAU 40, TD 02W WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO
STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) VWS AND LAND EFFECTS. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH.//
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发表于 2020-6-13 07:35 | 显示全部楼层

02W预报理由翻译/#03/06-12 12Z

本帖最后由 MTWP 于 2020-6-13 11:48 编辑

1. 本产品面向气象专业人员
2. 六小时总结与分析
  热带低压鹦鹉(02W)目前位于香港东南东方向约329海里的海面上,过去6小时以13节的速度向西北西的方向移动。增强红外线云图动画显示几块分散的深对流排布在宽阔的低层环流中心(LLCC)周围。12日11时06分的SSMIS 37GHz微波图像[1]显示较弱的、正在成形的螺旋雨带正卷入宽阔的弱LLCC。根据JTWC和JMA的T2.0的德法分析,JTWC继续给出30节的初始定强。系统的高层条件仍然对发展有利:垂直风切变较低[2],赤向流出较强,以及东侧一个位于16N 133E的弱TUTT提供了中等的极向流出。[3]不过,系统北侧从前述TUTT延伸的一道槽阻碍了极向流出。海表温度(30-31℃)[4]和海洋热含量均支持系统进一步发展。系统正沿着东、东北侧的一道深厚的副热带高压边缘移动。
3. 预报理由
  A. 与上一报相比,预报理由没有改变。
  B. 热带低压鹦鹉在预报范围内将继续受前述副高引导并向西北方向移动。未来36小时内,数值模式的预报较为一致,分歧只有125海里。未来36小时后,模式预报大多认为系统在沿着副高西南缘移动时会逐渐转向。ECMWF和GFS的集合预报大多认为系统会在香港西南登陆,JTWC的预报路径也采信了这一点。总体而言,环境对系统的发展有利,因此鹦鹉预计会在未来24小时内加强至巅峰强度45节。不过,在未来12-24小时后,风切将增大,可能将阻碍系统增强。未来36小时左右,鹦鹉将登陆,并在陆地和强风切(25-35节)的作用下快速减弱。总体而言,JTWC的预报路径的置信度仍然较高。
wp0220.gif
02W_121200sair.jpg

[1]
20200612.1106.f17.37pct37h37v.02W.TWO.30kts.1001mb.17N.118.1E.055pc.jpg
[2]
wgmsshr-4.GIF
[3]
wgmswvir-4.GIF
[4]
cdas-sflux_sst_wpac_1.png
WDPN31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (NURI)
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
&#160; &#160;TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 329 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS DISCRETE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION FLARING AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
121106Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A BROAD WEAKLY DEFINED
LLCC WITH FORMATIVE SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS) FROM PGTW/RJTD. UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A WEAK TUTT CELL
POSITIONED TO THE EAST NEAR 16N 133E; HOWEVER, A TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS HINDERING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. SST (30-31C) AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TD 02W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160;
3. FORECAST REASONING.
&#160; &#160;A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
&#160; &#160;B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 125NM SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A GRADUAL RECURVE AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THE ECMWF AND
GFS ENSEMBLE DATA ALSO SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH THE
BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS SUPPORTING LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. TD
02W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24 UNDER
GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, VWS SHOULD INCREASE TO
MODERATE LEVELS BY TAU 12-24, WHICH MAY SLOW INTENSIFICATION. NEAR
TAU 36, TD 02W WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO
STRONG (25-35 KNOTS) VWS AND LAND EFFECTS. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH.//
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发表于 2020-6-13 11:35 | 显示全部楼层

02W预报理由翻译/#04/06-12 18Z

本帖最后由 MTWP 于 2020-6-13 11:51 编辑

1. 本产品面向气象专业人员
2. 六小时总结与分析
  热带低压02W(鹦鹉)目前位于香港东南南方向约312海里的海面上,过去6小时以10节的速度向西北西的方向移动。增强红外线云图(EIR)动画显示大块深对流分布在系统的南侧和西侧半圆。12日18时05分的AMSR 89GHz微波图像显示正在成形的螺旋雨带正卷入中心[1]。根据上述的动画和图像,JTWC的初始定位置信度较高。由于JTWC和JMA的德法分析均为T2.0,JTWC继续给出30节的初始定强。分析显示系统周围的垂直风切变偏高(20-25节)[2],但海表温度很高(30-31℃)[3]。高层分析则显示赤向流出强劲,但北侧的一个TUTT阻碍了极向流出。[4]系统正沿着东北侧的一道深厚的副热带高压边缘移动,环境总体而言对发展较为有利。
3. 预报理由
  A. 与上一报相比,预报理由没有改变。
  B. 热带低压鹦鹉在预报范围内将继续受前述副高引导并向西北方向移动。未来24小时内,数值模式的预报较为一致,分歧只有65海里。未来24小时后,系统会接近陆地,此时模式预报之间产生了差异。预计未来24小时内,系统将会加强。未来24小时后,风切将进一步增强,从而系统将会减弱。未来24-36小时间,鹦鹉将在香港西南登陆,并在陆地和强风切的作用下快速减弱。总体而言,JTWC的预报路径的置信度仍然较高。
wp0220.gif
02W_121800sair.jpg

[1]
20200612.1805.gw1.89hbt.02W.NURI.30kts.999mb.17.7N.116.8E.85pc.jpg
[2]
wgmsshr-2.GIF
[3]
cdas-sflux_sst_wpac_1.png
[4]
wgmswvir-2.GIF
WDPN31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (NURI) WARNING
NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH REGIONS OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. A 121805Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. BASED ON THE EIR
AND MICROWAVE IMAGE, THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 30 KTS BASED
ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS) BY PGTW AND
RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
BUT LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A TUTT CELL TO
THE NORTH. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS TD 02W TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 65 NM
AT TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS THE
SYSTEM APPROACHES LAND. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 24,
INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND
36, TD 02W WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG AND THEN
RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS AND HIGH VWS. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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发表于 2020-6-13 17:12 | 显示全部楼层

02W预报理由翻译/#05/06-13 00Z

本帖最后由 MTWP 于 2020-6-13 17:35 编辑

1. 本产品面向气象专业人员
2. 六小时总结与分析
  热带低压02W(鹦鹉)目前位于香港东南南方向约228海里的海面上,过去6小时以15节的速度向西北北的方向移动。多光谱云图(MSI)动画显示LLCC部分裸露在外,大片深对流被切离到西南侧。12日22时45分的MHS 89GHz微波图像[1]显示正在成形的螺旋雨带正卷入中心。根据上述的云图动画和METOP-A上的ASCAT于13日00时32分的部分扫描[2],JTWC的初始定位置信度中等。由于JTWC、JMA、CWB的德法分析均在T2.0-2.5之间,ADT分析出T2.2(对应32节),且前述ASCAT显示系统东侧有25-29节风力,JTWC评估初始强度为30节。分析显示系统周围的垂直风切变偏高(20-25节)[3],但海表温度很高(30-31℃)[4]。高层分析仍然显示赤向流出强劲而极向流出受阻。[5]鹦鹉正沿着东北侧的一道深厚的副热带高压边缘移动,环境总体而言对发展较为有利。
3. 预报理由
  A. 与上一报相比,预报理由没有改变。
  B. 鹦鹉在预报范围内将继续受前述副高引导并向西北方向移动。预计短期内系统会有所加强。未来12小时后,在系统向陆地靠近的同时,风切将进一步增强,从而使系统减弱。未来24小时,鹦鹉将在香港西南方向的地区登陆[6],并在陆地和强风切的作用下快速减弱。未来36小时内,数值模式的预报较为一致,分歧只有70海里。因此,JTWC的预报路径的置信度较高。
wp0220.gif
02W_130000sair.jpg
[1]
20200612.2245.noaa19.89h.02W.NURI.30kts.999mb.17.7N.116.8E.075pc.jpg
[2]
20200613.0032.mta.ASCAT.wind.02W.NURI.30kts-1000mb.191N.1164E.25km.jpeg
[3]
wgmsshr-2.GIF
[4]
cdas-sflux_sst_wpac_1.png
[5]
wgmswvir-2.GIF
[6]译者注:为防止读者误解为“在香港登陆”,修改了表述。前两报的“在香港西南登陆”的含义与本文的表述相同。
WDPN31 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (NURI) WARNING
NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 228 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 122245Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. BASED ON THE MSI AND A
PARTIAL 130032Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KTS BASED
ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0-2.5 (30-
35 KTS) BY PGTW/RJTD/RCTP, AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF
T2.2 (32 KTS), AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT DATA WHICH SHOWED 25-29
KT WINDS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (30-
31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO SHOW STRONG EQUATORWARD AND LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. OVERALL,
THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS TD
02W TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC
REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE NEAR TERM. AFTER
TAU 12, INCREASING VWS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STORM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTHWEST OF
HONG KONG AROUND TAU 24 AND FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS WILL CAUSE THE
SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSITS INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SPREAD OF 70 NM AT
TAU 36, PLACING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

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发表于 2020-6-13 20:30 | 显示全部楼层

02W预报理由翻译/#06/06-13 06Z

本帖最后由 MTWP 于 2020-6-14 00:57 编辑

1. 本产品面向气象专业人员
2. 六小时总结与分析

  热带风暴02W(鹦鹉)目前位于香港东南南方向约172海里的海面上[1],过去6小时以15节的速度向西北北的方向移动。多光谱云图(MSI)动画显示低层环流中心(LLCC)部分裸露在外,有一块发展中的深对流被切离到西侧;低层螺旋雨带卷绕在中心周围,基于此的JTWC的初始定位置信度中等。由于JTWC、JMA的德法分析均为T2.5,JTWC评估初始强度为35节,比ADT的T2.2分析(对应32节)稍高,置信度中等。鹦鹉正沿着东北侧的一道副热带高压西南缘移动,周围的环境虽然有偏高的垂直风切变(20-25节)[2],但是极向流出已经打开[3],海表温度也很高(30-31℃)[4]。
3. 预报理由
  A. 与上一报相比,预报理由没有改变。
  B. 鹦鹉在预报范围内将继续受前述副高引导并向西北方向移动。预计未来12小时内系统强度维持。未来12小时,系统将会在中国登陆(登陆点在香港的西方向),并在陆地和增强风切的作用下逐渐减弱。未来36小时后,系统将开始消散;未来48小时,系统将完全消散。未来24小时内,数值模式的预报较为一致,分歧有80海里。不过未来48小时内,模式预报的分歧增大到了150海里。结合初始定位的中等置信度,JTWC的预报路径的置信度较高。
wp0220.gif
02W_130600sair.jpg

[1]译者注:原文为228海里,与上一报相同。由于这明显不合理,我们根据谷歌地球的标尺进行了修正。
[2]
wgmsshr-1.GIF
[3]
wgmswvir-1.GIF
[4]
cdas-sflux_sst_wpac_1.png
WDPN31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (NURI) WARNING
NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 228
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A REGION OF BUILDING, DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO
THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON LOW LEVEL BANDING IN THE MSI THAT IS WRAPPING INTO THE PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
AT 35 KTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BY PGTW AND RJTD, AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.2 (32 KTS). TS NURI
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND THROUGH A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENTAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS NURI IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12 TS 02W WILL MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF CHINA (WEST OF HONG KONG) AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH
THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN DISSIPATION OVER LAND
BY TAU 36 AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 WITH A
SPREAD OF 80 NM, HOWEVER THIS SPREAD INCREASES TO 150 NM BY TAU 48.
THE TIGHT AGREEMENT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION PLACES OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. //
NNNN

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论坛版主-副热带高压

凌波微步,罗袜生尘

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 楼主| 发表于 2020-6-14 03:54 | 显示全部楼层

02W预报理由翻译/#07/06-13 12Z

本帖最后由 1007圆规 于 2020-6-14 04:01 编辑

1.气象从业者专用
2.过去6小时小结与分析
热带风暴02W(鹦鹉),目前位于香港以南约120海里的洋面上。在过去的6小时,系统以每小时10节的速度向西北移动。红外线增强云图(EIR)动画显示了系统部分裸露的低层环流中心(LLCC)和西侧仍然被切离的深对流。初始的定位根据之前所说的显示了系统部分裸露低层环流中心的红外线增强云图动画和可见系统当前底层面貌的13日10时54分SSMIS 37 GHZ微波图像得出,信心为高。由于JTWC和JMA都给出了T2.5(对应35节)的德法分析,ADT分析出T2.3(对应33节),同时09时57分的SATCON分析出38节,我们仍然给出35节的初始定强,信心为高。预计鹦鹉将沿着位于它东北的副热带高压脊的西南边缘前进,并通过尚可的环境进一步加强,赤向流出的建立抵消了系统受到的中等到较高(20-25节)的垂直风切变,同时还有较高(30-31°C)的海水表层温度。
3. 预报理由
A.与上一报相比,预报理由没有改变。
B.预计鹦鹉将在之后的预报时间内继续受之前所说的副热带高压脊的控制移动。系统将在12小时后减弱到30节,这很大程度上是由会对其不利的风切造成的。在12小时后不久系统将在香港以西的中国海岸登陆并在增强的垂直风切变和与陆地的相互摩擦下减弱。系统在24小时后将减弱到25节且开始在陆地上消散,并于36小时后完全消散。各数值模型预报在12小时后仍然相当一致,分歧误差为40海里,然而这个分歧将在24小时后扩大到120海里。各数值模型预报在12小时内的分歧对初始预报仍然有着高度的准确性,并且JTWC官方路径预测的置信度也较高。
02W 06.13 12Z.gif 215031bdwzmi5i4mglidw7.jpg 20200613.1054.f17.37h.02W.NURI.35kts.998mb.19.7N.115.2E.090pc.jpg 20200613.1054.f17.37pct37h37v.02W.NURI.35kts.998mb.19.7N.115.2E.090pc.jpg wgmswvir-2.gif wgmssht-2.gif cdas-sflux_sst_wpac_1 (1).png
WDPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (NURI) WARNING
NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTH OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP, PERSISTENT CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE POSITION OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP AND THE
LOW LEVEL FEATURES PRESENT IN A 131054Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AT 35 KTS BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS)
BY PGTW AND RJTD, A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CI ESTIMATE OF T2.3
(33 KTS) AND A 130957Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 38 KTS. TS NURI
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST AND THROUGH A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENTAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS NURI IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO 30 KTS BY TAU
12, LARGELY DUE TO THE HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12
TS 02W WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF CHINA (WEST OF HONG KONG)
AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE OVER LAND, WEAKENING TO 25 KTS BY TAU 24. THEREAFTER THE
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12 WITH A
SPREAD OF 40 NM, HOWEVER THIS SPREAD INCREASES TO 120 NM BY TAU 24.
THE INCREASING SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
INITIAL FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH TAU 12, AND ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE
OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST TRACK THEREAFTER.//
NNNN

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发表于 2020-6-14 18:13 | 显示全部楼层

02W预报理由翻译/#08/06-13 18Z

本帖最后由 ___ 于 2020-6-14 19:48 编辑

一、本预报面向气象从业者

二、6小时总结与分析
        热带低压鹦鹉(02W)现位于香港西南偏南约103海里,在过去6小时内以11节的速度向北偏西移动。强化卫星红外动画显示,系统的低层环流中心弱而不规则,较其深对流向东北偏离了75海里。初始位置基于强化卫星红外图像和雷达图像给出,可信度为良好。初始强度则参考了JTWC的T2.0(30节)的德沃夏克法估计值和13时22分的ASCAT扫描而给出。鹦鹉继续沿着副热带高压脊的西南边缘向东北移动,并且已经移入垂直风切变较高(>25节)的区域,不过风切的效应被良好赤向流出和较高的海温(30-31℃)部分抵消。

三、预报理由
        A.对比上一报,本报的预报理由没有显著的改动。
        B.在余下的时间内,热带低压鹦鹉将在高压脊的引导下,继续沿着当前的轨道行进,并于+06h在华南沿海登陆,登陆点的具体方位为香港西南偏西约125海里。垂直风切变和陆地的削弱将促成鹦鹉的迅速减弱,并导致其在+24h或更早的时间内消散。数值预报间就鹦鹉的路径仍然达成了较好的共识,但由于难以追踪陆上的弱涡旋,在+24h的时效内数值间仍然有200海里的分歧。我们的路径预测接近数值间的共识,可信度为高。
02W 06.13 18Z.gif
02w_131800sair.jpg
20200613.1322.mta.ASCAT.wind.02W.NURI.35kts-998mb.203N.1143E.25km.jpeg
wgmswxc-5.GIF
WDPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (NURI) WARNING
NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 02W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11  KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK
AND RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DISPLACED 75NM NE FROM ITS ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EIR AND RADAR LOOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30KTS FROM PGTW AND FROM A 131322Z DIRECT ASCAT
PASS. TD NURI CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SW PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE
NE AND HAS DRIFTED INTO HIGH (25KT+) VWS THAT IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-31C) SST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD NURI WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL
OVER THE SE CHINA COAST APPROXIMATELY 125NM WSW OF HONG KONG NEAR TAU
06. HIGH VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL PRIMARILY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ITS
RAPID DECAY LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, LIKELY SOONER. NUMERICAL
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING UP TO 200NM BY TAU 24 AS
THEY HAVE DIFFICULTY TRACKING A WEAK VORTEX OVER LAND. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID NEAR THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

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