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[2020] 墨西哥以西热带低压04E

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热带低压

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发表于 2020-6-28 08:13 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-6-30 10:51 编辑

95E INVEST 200628 0000  10.0N   95.0W EPAC   15   NA
95E INVEST 200628 0000 14.8N 105.0W EPAC 25 1006

20200628.0040.goes-16.ir.95E.INVEST.25kts.1006mb.14.8N.105W.100pc.JPG


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参与人数 1金钱 +3 威望 +3 收起 理由
1007圆规 + 3 + 3 95E

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我爱台风。
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人生1度きり!全力で楽しむ!

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发表于 2020-6-28 08:40 | 显示全部楼层
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jun 27 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located
a few hundred miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico.  This
system is expected to move northwestward at about 15 mph, parallel
to the coast of Mexico, and some development is possible before it
reaches cooler waters in a couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Latto
2583393D-B8E3-400D-AB0F-743C234B2691.png 0296C921-E9DC-4E56-828C-29C68C4CF381.png
茨の道を走ってゆく
否定されても僕は笑うよ
間違っても 何度でも 諦めない
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 楼主| 发表于 2020-6-28 08:43 | 显示全部楼层
tcfa_gw 发表于 2020-6-28 08:40
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

这个系统在14N 105W附近,跟现在的95E定位差距还有点大(不过后面也可能会调整定位)
我爱台风。
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发表于 2020-6-29 01:50 | 显示全部楼层

NHC:30%/30%

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 28 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
a few hundred miles southwest of southwestern Mexico have become a
little better organized since yesterday.  Further development of
this system is possible while the trough moves northwestward at
about 15 mph before reaching cool waters on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

2. An area of low pressure is likely to form a few hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by the middle of the
week.  Environmental conditions are then forecast to be conducive
for slow development while the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph well south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Blake
two_pac_2d0.png
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two_pac_5d0.png
two_pac_5d1.png
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Sing For You~

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发表于 2020-6-29 07:45 | 显示全部楼层
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located a few hundred miles west of the coast of southwestern Mexico
have become better organized today. Although the system does not
currently have a well-defined center, additional development is
possible, and a tropical depression could form tonight or Monday as
the system moves northwestward at about 15 mph. After that time,
additional development will become unlikely as the disturbance moves
over cooler waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
59376894-580F-4FF4-BC25-4858254E48D9.png
BBEDF2E2-E6CF-49A8-8005-C7B0F05680BE.png
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发表于 2020-6-29 21:24 | 显示全部楼层

SSD:T1.5

TXPZ21 KNES 291159
TCSENP
A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95E)
B.  29/1130Z
C.  18.6N
D.  111.8W
E.  THREE/GOES-W
F.  T1.5/1.5
G.  IR/EIR/SWIR
H.  REMARKS...3/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.5. MET IS 1.0 AND PT IS
1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...CLARK
20200629.1130.goes-17.ir.95E.INVEST.25kts.1005mb.18.8N.111.2W.100pc.jpg
20200629.1130.goes-17.irbd.95E.INVEST.25kts.1005mb.18.8N.111.2W.100pc.jpg
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Sing For You~

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发表于 2020-6-30 05:05 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-6-30 12:18 编辑

WTPN21 PHNC 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.6N 111.9W TO 22.3N 113.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
291800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N
112.1W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
19.9N 112.1W, APPROXIMATELY 47 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SOCORRO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
OVERHEAD AND A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH. A
291627Z MHS METOP-B 89Z PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE SOUTH. A 291653Z
METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WEAK LLCC WITH A SWATH OF 15 TO 20 KNOT
WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. 95E IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (15 TO 20 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MARGINAL (26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95E WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302100Z.//
NNNN
ep9520.gif
A5317E55-9CD2-4F94-AB87-BC78664A5266.jpeg
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发表于 2020-6-30 08:26 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 tcfa_gw 于 2020-6-30 08:27 编辑

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Jun 29 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula have become slightly less organized
since late this morning.  This system, however, could still become
a short-lived tropical depression later today or tonight before it
moves over cooler waters and into an area of less favorable
upper-level winds on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Brown
661FCDB8-E39D-4E73-9532-C71D96373D55.png

C4368684-0AA6-41A4-ADC0-DC6F697823BF.png

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否定されても僕は笑うよ
間違っても 何度でも 諦めない
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发表于 2020-6-30 10:50 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 炎煌深沉 于 2020-6-30 12:18 编辑

WTPZ44 KNHC 300232
TCDEP4

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042020
900 PM MDT Mon Jun 29 2020

The circulation associated with the area of low pressure located
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has
become better defined over the past 24 hours, and the system has
maintained convection for much of the past 12 hours. Although the
convection has not been particularly well organized at times today,
a new burst of convection developed just northeast of the low-level
center late this afternoon and has been persistent over the past
several hours.  Based on these observations and Dvorak T-number of
1.5 from TAFB and 2.0 from SAB, the system is being designated as a
30-kt tropical depression.  The system is expected to be a short-
lived tropical cyclone as it will be moving into an area of
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and over SSTs of around
24 degrees Celsius by Tuesday morning.  As a result, the depression
is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday.  The NHC
wind speed prediction follows the trend of the intensity guidance
and also calls for the remnant low to dissipate in 2 to 3 days.

The depression is moving slowly northwestward around the western
portion of a mid-level ridge that extends westward over central
Mexico.  The cyclone should continue moving on the same general
heading with some reduction in forward speed as it weakens and is
steered by the weaker low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast is
near the middle of the guidance envelope in best agreement
with the HFIP corrected consensus model.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0300Z 20.5N 112.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  30/1200Z 21.1N 113.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
24H  01/0000Z 21.4N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  01/1200Z 21.6N 113.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  02/0000Z 21.8N 113.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
023401_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
ep0420.gif
04E_300300sair.jpg
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Dorian 160Kt 实测911hPa

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QQ
发表于 2020-6-30 11:35 | 显示全部楼层
炎煌深沉 发表于 2020-6-30 10:50
WTPZ44 KNHC 300232
TCDEP4

昨晚风场完全不支持命名,LLCC昨晚还在16N 113W处
WMBds51.png
WMBds52.png
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